Modello predefinitoMedia interquartile (Lista Curata)

Bayern Munich v Union Berlin

2026-09-18 18:30 UTC — Bundesliga - Germany

Testa a testa

32 bookmaker (13 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: Media interquartile (Lista Curata)

Bayern Munich (Casa)

Previsione 86.57%1.16quota equa
EV -2.17%
Vantaggio -1.92%
Kelly -16.71%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 1.13

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
83.17%86.34%86.66%88.92%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
1.041.091.101.1396.15%91.72%90.91%88.50%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Union Berlin (Trasferta)

Previsione 4.82%20.75quota equa
EV +25.32%
Vantaggio +0.974%
Kelly +1.01%
Crescita +0.256%

ipotizzando la quota massima 26.00

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
3.69%4.99%4.87%7.14%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
13.0018.9219.0026.007.69%5.29%5.26%3.85%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Pareggio

Previsione 8.61%11.62quota equa
EV +20.49%
Vantaggio +1.46%
Kelly +1.58%
Crescita +0.323%

ipotizzando la quota massima 14.00

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
6.76%8.67%8.47%11.26%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
8.4010.6010.2514.0011.90%9.43%9.76%7.14%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Per Testa a testa, Media interquartile (Lista Curata) stima queste probabilità: Bayern Munich (Casa): 86.57%; Union Berlin (Trasferta): 4.82%; Pareggio: 8.61%. Per Union Berlin (Trasferta), questa stima equivale a una quota decimale equa di 20.75. 11 bookmaker offrono quote superiori a tale livello; la migliore quota disponibile è 26.00, con un valore atteso positivo del +25.32%.

Quote dei bookmaker (32 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggio ▼MargineAggiornamento
Tipico (DE)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.50%EV -7.37%E -6.88%K -105.24%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.73%EV -3.60%E -0.180%K -0.190%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.76%EV +20.49%E +1.46%K +1.58%G +0.323%5.6%2026-09-06 17:55
SportsBet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.92%EV -6.50%E -6.02%K -81.26%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.69%EV +25.32%E +0.974%K +1.01%G +0.256%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.39%EV +11.89%E +0.914%K +0.991%G +0.118%4.1%2026-09-06 17:54
1xBet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 88.07%EV -3.04%E -2.71%K -25.32%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.29%EV +10.86%E +0.472%K +0.494%G +0.054%12.90I 7.75%NM 7.65%EV +11.03%E +0.855%K +0.927%G +0.102%1.4%2026-09-06 19:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 87.64%EV -3.90%E -3.52%K -35.49%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.42%EV +6.04%E +0.274%K +0.288%G +0.017%12.25I 8.16%NM 7.94%EV +5.43%E +0.443%K +0.483%G +0.026%2.8%2026-09-06 19:35
Codere (IT)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.95%EV -6.50%E -6.02%K -81.26%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.13%EV +10.86%E +0.472%K +0.494%G +0.054%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.92%EV +3.28%E +0.273%K +0.298%G +0.010%5.3%2026-09-06 17:55
Sky Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.71%EV -7.37%E -6.88%K -105.24%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV +1.22%E +0.058%K +0.061%G +0.001%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.82%EV +3.28%E +0.273%K +0.298%G +0.010%6.6%2026-09-06 17:55
Paddy Power🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.15%EV -8.23%E -7.77%K -137.20%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.06%EV +10.86%E +0.472%K +0.494%G +0.054%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV +3.28%E +0.273%K +0.298%G +0.010%7.0%2026-09-06 17:55
Pinnacle🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.13%EV -4.77%E -4.34%K -47.69%G +0.000%16.10I 6.21%NM 5.88%EV -22.40%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%11.87I 8.42%NM 7.98%EV +2.16%E +0.182%K +0.199%G +0.004%5.5%2026-09-06 19:00
Fanatics🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.45%EV -4.77%E -4.34%K -47.69%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.28%EV -13.24%E -0.736%K -0.779%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.27%EV -1.02%E -0.089%K -0.097%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 17:55
betfred_uk🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.36%EV -4.77%E -4.34%K -47.69%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.00%EV -8.42%E -0.443%K -0.468%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -5.33%E -0.484%K -0.533%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 19:10
William Hill🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.36%EV -4.77%E -4.34%K -47.69%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.00%EV -8.42%E -0.443%K -0.468%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -5.33%E -0.484%K -0.533%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 19:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.36%EV -4.77%E -4.34%K -47.69%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.00%EV -8.42%E -0.443%K -0.468%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -5.33%E -0.484%K -0.533%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 18:54
Betway🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.42%EV -4.77%E -4.34%K -47.69%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -37.34%E -2.87%K -3.11%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -5.33%E -0.484%K -0.533%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-06 19:45
FanDuel🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 87.63%EV -9.10%E -8.66%K -181.96%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.00%EV +10.86%E +0.472%K +0.494%G +0.054%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.37%EV -5.33%E -0.484%K -0.533%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-06 17:55
BetMGM🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 85.03%EV -2.17%E -1.92%K -16.71%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.82%EV -20.47%E -1.24%K -1.32%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.15%EV -9.63%E -0.917%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-06 19:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.01%EV -4.77%E -4.34%K -47.69%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.98%EV -8.42%E -0.443%K -0.468%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -9.63%E -0.917%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-06 19:10
Coral🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.90%EV -3.04%E -2.71%K -25.32%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.59%EV -18.06%E -1.06%K -1.13%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.51%EV -13.93%E -1.39%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 19:08
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -3.04%E -2.71%K -25.32%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.29%EV -27.70%E -1.85%K -1.98%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -13.93%E -1.39%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-06 19:10
888sport🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.62%EV -4.77%E -4.34%K -47.69%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.96%EV -8.42%E -0.443%K -0.468%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -13.93%E -1.39%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 19:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.62%EV -4.77%E -4.34%K -47.69%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.96%EV -8.42%E -0.443%K -0.468%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -13.93%E -1.39%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 19:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.62%EV -4.77%E -4.34%K -47.69%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.96%EV -8.42%E -0.443%K -0.468%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -13.93%E -1.39%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 19:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.36%EV -7.37%E -6.88%K -105.24%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.40%EV +1.22%E +0.058%K +0.061%G +0.001%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -13.93%E -1.39%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-06 17:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.36%EV -7.37%E -6.88%K -105.24%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.40%EV +1.22%E +0.058%K +0.061%G +0.001%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -13.93%E -1.39%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-06 17:55
LeoVegas🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.96%EV -7.37%E -6.88%K -105.24%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.84%EV -8.42%E -0.443%K -0.468%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -13.93%E -1.39%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-06 17:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.82%EV -8.23%E -7.77%K -137.20%G +0.000%18.75I 5.33%NM 4.85%EV -9.63%E -0.513%K -0.542%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.33%EV -16.08%E -1.65%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-06 20:28
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.48%EV -3.04%E -2.71%K -25.32%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -32.52%E -2.32%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.84%EV -18.24%E -1.92%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 19:05
Neds🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.48%EV -3.04%E -2.71%K -25.32%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -32.52%E -2.32%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.84%EV -18.24%E -1.92%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 19:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 84.04%EV -9.96%E -9.58%K -249.09%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.24%EV -32.52%E -2.32%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.71%EV -22.54%E -2.50%K -2.82%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-06 17:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 84.57%EV -9.10%E -8.66%K -181.96%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.22%EV -18.06%E -1.06%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.70I 11.49%NM 10.21%EV -25.12%E -2.89%K -3.26%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-06 17:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 83.17%EV -9.96%E -9.58%K -249.09%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.65%EV -37.34%E -2.87%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.18%EV -26.84%E -3.16%K -3.58%G +0.000%15.6%2026-09-06 17:55
Betsson🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.44%EV -3.04%E -2.71%K -25.32%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.30%EV +6.04%E +0.274%K +0.288%G +0.017%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.26%EV -27.70%E -3.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-06 20:25
NordicBet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.44%EV -3.04%E -2.71%K -25.32%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.30%EV +6.04%E +0.274%K +0.288%G +0.017%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.26%EV -27.70%E -3.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-06 20:25
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Borse di scommesse (5)

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggioMargine ▲Aggiornamento
Kalshi1.14I 87.72%NM 86.24%16.67I 6.00%NM 5.90%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.86%1.7%2026-09-06 20:20
Smarkets1.04I 96.15%NM 82.32%14.01I 7.14%NM 6.11%7.40I 13.51%NM 11.57%16.8%2026-09-06 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.08I 92.59%NM 32.38%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.99%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.63%185.9%2026-09-06 19:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.08I 92.59%NM 32.38%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.99%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.63%185.9%2026-09-06 19:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.08I 92.59%NM 32.38%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.99%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.63%185.9%2026-09-06 19:55
Arbitraggio (5 combinazioni) +0.52%BetMGM 1.13 (89.0%) / SportsBet 26.00 (3.9%) / Tipico (DE) 14.00 (7.2%)Mostra tutte le 5 combinazioni
Bayern Munich (Casa)Union Berlin (Trasferta)PareggioMargine
BetMGM🎯 1.13 (89.0%)SportsBet🎯 26.00 (3.9%)Tipico (DE)🎯 14.00 (7.2%)+0.518%
BetMGM🎯 1.13 (88.5%)1xBet🎯 23.00 (4.3%)Tipico (DE)🎯 14.00 (7.1%)+0.014%
BetMGM🎯 1.13 (88.5%)Codere (IT)🎯 23.00 (4.3%)Tipico (DE)🎯 14.00 (7.1%)+0.014%
BetMGM🎯 1.13 (88.5%)Paddy Power🎯 23.00 (4.3%)Tipico (DE)🎯 14.00 (7.1%)+0.014%
BetMGM🎯 1.13 (88.5%)FanDuel🎯 23.00 (4.3%)Tipico (DE)🎯 14.00 (7.1%)+0.014%