Language:English
Mansfield Town v Arsenal
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Mansfield Town (Local)
Prediction 6.12%16.34fair odd
EV +40.75%
Edge +1.77%
Kelly +1.85%
Growth +0.755%
assuming max odds 23.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.23%6.11%6.18%8.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0016.7316.0023.009.09%5.98%6.25%4.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Arsenal (Visit)
Prediction 83.02%1.20fair odd
EV -2.03%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -11.29%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.05%82.99%82.94%86.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.121.131.1893.46%88.99%88.50%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 10.86%9.21fair odd
EV +19.43%
Edge +1.77%
Kelly +1.94%
Growth +0.377%
assuming max odds 11.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.52%10.90%10.89%13.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.509.079.0011.0015.38%11.02%11.11%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mansfield Town (Local): 6.12%; Arsenal (Visit): 83.02%; Draw: 10.86%. For Mansfield Town (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 16.34. 22 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 23.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +40.75%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.25%EV +40.75%E +1.77%K +1.85%G +0.755% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 86.45%EV -6.18%E -5.47%K -47.56%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.30%EV +14.00%E +1.33%K +1.47%G +0.206% | 2.4% | 2026-03-07 11:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.23%EV +40.75%E +1.77%K +1.85%G +0.755% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 86.05%EV -6.18%E -5.47%K -47.56%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.72%EV +8.57%E +0.857%K +0.952%G +0.082% | 2.8% | 2026-03-07 12:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.23%EV +40.75%E +1.77%K +1.85%G +0.755% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 86.05%EV -6.18%E -5.47%K -47.56%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.72%EV +8.57%E +0.857%K +0.952%G +0.082% | 2.8% | 2026-03-07 12:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.48%EV +28.51%E +1.36%K +1.43%G +0.406% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.60%EV -8.67%E -7.89%K -86.74%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.91%EV +3.14%E +0.331%K +0.370%G +0.012% | 6.2% | 2026-03-07 12:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.48%EV +28.51%E +1.36%K +1.43%G +0.406% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.60%EV -8.67%E -7.89%K -86.74%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.91%EV +3.14%E +0.331%K +0.370%G +0.012% | 6.2% | 2026-03-07 12:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.48%EV +28.51%E +1.36%K +1.43%G +0.406% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.60%EV -8.67%E -7.89%K -86.74%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.91%EV +3.14%E +0.331%K +0.370%G +0.012% | 6.2% | 2026-03-07 12:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.45%EV +28.51%E +1.36%K +1.43%G +0.406% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.72%EV -9.50%E -8.72%K -105.60%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +3.14%E +0.331%K +0.370%G +0.012% | 7.0% | 2026-03-07 12:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.45%EV +28.51%E +1.36%K +1.43%G +0.406% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.72%EV -9.50%E -8.72%K -105.60%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +3.14%E +0.331%K +0.370%G +0.012% | 7.0% | 2026-03-07 12:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.45%EV +28.51%E +1.36%K +1.43%G +0.406% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.72%EV -9.50%E -8.72%K -105.60%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +3.14%E +0.331%K +0.370%G +0.012% | 7.0% | 2026-03-07 12:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.45%EV +28.51%E +1.36%K +1.43%G +0.406% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.72%EV -9.50%E -8.72%K -105.60%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +3.14%E +0.331%K +0.370%G +0.012% | 7.0% | 2026-03-07 12:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.41%EV +28.51%E +1.36%K +1.43%G +0.406% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.83%EV -10.33%E -9.57%K -129.18%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV +3.14%E +0.331%K +0.370%G +0.012% | 7.9% | 2026-03-07 12:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.39%EV +28.51%E +1.36%K +1.43%G +0.406% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.37%EV -10.33%E -9.57%K -129.18%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -2.29%E -0.254%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-07 12:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.10%EV +16.27%E +0.856%K +0.904%G +0.147% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.97%EV -5.35%E -4.70%K -38.24%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.93%EV +5.86%E +0.601%K +0.669%G +0.039% | 3.2% | 2026-03-07 12:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 18.50I 5.41%NM 5.14%EV +13.21%E +0.714%K +0.755%G +0.100% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.07%EV -6.18%E -5.47%K -47.56%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.80%EV -4.46%E -0.507%K -0.572%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 12:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 18.50I 5.41%NM 5.14%EV +13.21%E +0.714%K +0.755%G +0.100% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.07%EV -6.18%E -5.47%K -47.56%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.80%EV -4.46%E -0.507%K -0.572%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 12:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.26%EV +10.15%E +0.564%K +0.597%G +0.061% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.12%EV -8.67%E -7.89%K -86.74%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.61%EV +19.43%E +1.77%K +1.94%G +0.377% | 5.6% | 2026-03-07 08:44 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.04%EV +10.15%E +0.564%K +0.597%G +0.061% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 84.87%EV -11.16%E -10.43%K -159.50%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.09%EV -2.29%E -0.254%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-07 12:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.04%EV +10.15%E +0.564%K +0.597%G +0.061% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 84.87%EV -11.16%E -10.43%K -159.50%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.09%EV -2.29%E -0.254%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-07 12:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.55%EV +4.03%E +0.237%K +0.252%G +0.010% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.01%EV -7.84%E -7.07%K -71.31%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV +8.57%E +0.857%K +0.952%G +0.082% | 6.0% | 2026-03-07 10:59 |
| Everygame🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.53%EV +4.03%E +0.237%K +0.252%G +0.010% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.01%EV -7.01%E -6.26%K -58.45%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -2.29%E -0.254%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-07 11:50 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.44%EV +4.03%E +0.237%K +0.252%G +0.010% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 84.83%EV -9.50%E -8.72%K -105.60%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV +3.14%E +0.331%K +0.370%G +0.012% | 8.2% | 2026-03-07 11:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.32%EV +4.03%E +0.237%K +0.252%G +0.010% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 80.76%EV -7.01%E -6.26%K -58.45%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.92%EV -29.43%E -4.53%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-07 12:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.01%EV -2.09%E -0.131%K -0.139%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.37%EV -5.35%E -4.70%K -38.24%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.62%EV +8.57%E +0.857%K +0.952%G +0.082% | 4.0% | 2026-03-07 11:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.01%EV -2.09%E -0.131%K -0.139%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.37%EV -5.35%E -4.70%K -38.24%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.62%EV +8.57%E +0.857%K +0.952%G +0.082% | 4.0% | 2026-03-07 11:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.87%EV -2.09%E -0.131%K -0.139%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.39%EV -5.35%E -4.70%K -38.24%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.74%EV -13.14%E -1.64%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-07 12:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.87%EV -2.09%E -0.131%K -0.139%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.09%EV -6.18%E -5.47%K -47.56%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.05%EV -7.71%E -0.908%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-07 12:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.80%EV -2.09%E -0.131%K -0.139%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.42%EV -8.67%E -7.89%K -86.74%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.78%EV +3.14%E +0.331%K +0.370%G +0.012% | 7.7% | 2026-03-07 11:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV -8.21%E -0.547%K -0.586%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.15%EV -5.35%E -4.70%K -38.24%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.53%EV -2.29%E -0.254%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-07 12:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -8.21%E -0.547%K -0.586%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.30%EV -5.35%E -4.70%K -38.24%G +0.000% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.44%EV -10.97%E -1.34%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-07 12:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.25%EV -8.21%E -0.547%K -0.586%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.23%EV -8.67%E -7.89%K -86.74%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV +19.43%E +1.77%K +1.94%G +0.377% | 6.7% | 2026-03-07 11:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -8.21%E -0.547%K -0.586%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -5.35%E -4.70%K -38.24%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -13.14%E -1.64%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-07 11:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -8.21%E -0.547%K -0.586%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -5.35%E -4.70%K -38.24%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -13.14%E -1.64%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-07 11:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -8.21%E -0.547%K -0.586%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -5.35%E -4.70%K -38.24%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -13.14%E -1.64%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-07 11:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -8.21%E -0.547%K -0.586%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -5.35%E -4.70%K -38.24%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -13.14%E -1.64%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-07 11:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV -8.21%E -0.547%K -0.586%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.88%EV -8.67%E -7.89%K -86.74%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV +14.00%E +1.33%K +1.47%G +0.206% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 12:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -8.21%E -0.547%K -0.586%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.20%EV -6.18%E -5.47%K -47.56%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -13.14%E -1.64%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-07 12:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV -8.21%E -0.547%K -0.586%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.64%EV -8.67%E -7.89%K -86.74%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV -2.29%E -0.254%K -0.286%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-07 11:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.03%EV -8.21%E -0.547%K -0.586%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.05%EV -6.18%E -5.47%K -47.56%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.92%EV -29.43%E -4.53%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-07 11:44 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.56%EV -14.33%E -1.02%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 84.26%EV -9.50%E -8.72%K -105.60%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.18%EV +8.57%E +0.857%K +0.952%G +0.082% | 8.9% | 2026-03-07 12:09 |
| Fliff🎯 | 13.55I 7.38%NM 6.76%EV -17.08%E -1.26%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.58%EV -7.84%E -7.07%K -71.31%G +0.000% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 10.66%EV -6.63%E -0.771%K -0.872%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-07 12:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.42%EV -20.45%E -1.57%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.43%EV -2.86%E -2.45%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.15%EV +3.14%E +0.331%K +0.370%G +0.012% | 3.7% | 2026-03-07 12:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -20.45%E -1.57%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.53%EV -4.52%E -3.93%K -30.15%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -18.57%E -2.48%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-07 11:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.97%EV -26.57%E -2.21%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.09%EV -2.03%E -1.72%K -11.29%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.94%EV -5.00%E -0.571%K -0.645%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-07 12:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.95%EV -26.57%E -2.21%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.83%EV -2.03%E -1.72%K -11.29%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.22%EV -7.71%E -0.908%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-07 12:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 11.60I 8.62%NM 8.34%EV -29.02%E -2.50%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.99%EV -2.03%E -1.72%K -11.29%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.67%EV +8.57%E +0.857%K +0.952%G +0.082% | 3.4% | 2026-03-07 12:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.61%EV -32.69%E -2.97%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.25%EV -2.03%E -1.72%K -11.29%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.14%EV -7.71%E -0.908%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-07 12:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.61%EV -32.69%E -2.97%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.25%EV -2.03%E -1.72%K -11.29%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.14%EV -7.71%E -0.908%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-07 12:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.61%EV -32.69%E -2.97%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.25%EV -2.03%E -1.72%K -11.29%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.14%EV -7.71%E -0.908%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-07 12:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 23.98I 4.17%NM 4.21% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 87.72% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 8.07% | -0.9% | 2026-03-07 12:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.52% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 86.44% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 9.04% | 0.6% | 2026-03-07 12:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.72% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 86.26% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 9.02% | 0.8% | 2026-03-07 12:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.72% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 86.26% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 9.02% | 0.8% | 2026-03-07 12:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.95% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 86.13% | 11.11I 9.00%NM 8.92% | 1.0% | 2026-03-07 11:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.95% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 86.06% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 9.00% | 1.0% | 2026-03-07 12:10 |