Language:English
Aston Villa v Liverpool
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aston Villa (Local)
Prediction 26.84%3.73fair odd
EV -0.686%
Edge -0.185%
Kelly -0.254%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.19%26.98%26.74%28.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.433.423.7031.25%29.15%29.20%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Liverpool (Visit)
Prediction 49.89%2.00fair odd
EV -0.226%
Edge -0.113%
Kelly -0.226%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.48%49.72%49.98%51.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.901.912.0056.82%52.58%52.36%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.27%4.30fair odd
EV +1.23%
Edge +0.283%
Kelly +0.367%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 4.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.77%23.30%23.28%24.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.064.004.3527.03%24.64%25.00%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aston Villa (Local): 26.84%; Liverpool (Visit): 49.89%; Draw: 23.27%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.30. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.23%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -6.05%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.18%EV -7.71%E -4.17%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.77%EV +1.23%E +0.283%K +0.367%G +0.005% | 5.6% | 2026-05-08 03:23 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.69I 27.10%NM 26.69%EV -0.954%E -0.259%K -0.355%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.51%EV -2.72%E -1.40%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 4.32I 23.15%NM 22.80%EV +0.532%E +0.123%K +0.160%G +0.001% | 1.5% | 2026-05-07 21:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.79%EV -4.98%E -1.41%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.26%EV -7.71%E -4.17%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 4.32I 23.15%NM 21.95%EV +0.532%E +0.123%K +0.160%G +0.001% | 5.5% | 2026-05-07 21:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%EV -7.40%E -2.14%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.28%EV -1.72%E -0.874%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.58%EV +0.067%E +0.016%K +0.020%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-06 04:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%EV -7.40%E -2.14%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.28%EV -1.72%E -0.874%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.58%EV +0.067%E +0.016%K +0.020%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-06 04:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%EV -7.40%E -2.14%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.28%EV -1.72%E -0.874%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.58%EV +0.067%E +0.016%K +0.020%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-06 04:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%EV -7.40%E -2.14%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.28%EV -1.72%E -0.874%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.58%EV +0.067%E +0.016%K +0.020%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-06 04:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.65%EV -2.30%E -0.631%K -0.870%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.52%EV -4.22%E -2.20%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.83%EV -1.10%E -0.258%K -0.337%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-07 21:08 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.15%EV -8.74%E -2.57%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.33%EV -3.22%E -1.66%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.52%EV -1.10%E -0.258%K -0.337%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-06 04:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -8.74%E -2.57%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.72%EV -4.72%E -2.47%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.35%EV -1.10%E -0.258%K -0.337%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-04 08:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.98%EV -0.686%E -0.185%K -0.254%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.13%EV -6.21%E -3.30%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.89%EV -2.26%E -0.538%K -0.706%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-07 22:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.98%EV -0.686%E -0.185%K -0.254%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.13%EV -6.21%E -3.30%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.89%EV -2.26%E -0.538%K -0.706%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-07 22:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -10.08%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.12%EV -3.72%E -1.93%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.57%EV -2.26%E -0.538%K -0.706%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-06 04:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -10.08%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.12%EV -3.72%E -1.93%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.57%EV -2.26%E -0.538%K -0.706%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-06 04:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -10.08%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.12%EV -3.72%E -1.93%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.57%EV -2.26%E -0.538%K -0.706%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-06 04:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -10.08%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.12%EV -3.72%E -1.93%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.57%EV -2.26%E -0.538%K -0.706%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-06 04:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -10.08%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.12%EV -3.72%E -1.93%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.57%EV -2.26%E -0.538%K -0.706%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-06 04:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -10.08%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.12%EV -3.72%E -1.93%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.57%EV -2.26%E -0.538%K -0.706%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-06 04:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.23%EV -10.08%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.25%EV -4.22%E -2.20%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.52%EV -2.26%E -0.538%K -0.706%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-06 04:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -6.05%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.71%EV -4.72%E -2.47%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%EV -4.59%E -1.12%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 23:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -6.05%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.24%EV -6.71%E -3.59%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -4.59%E -1.12%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-07 23:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.00%EV -10.08%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.12%EV -4.72%E -2.47%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -4.59%E -1.12%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-06 04:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -7.40%E -2.14%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.05%EV -6.71%E -3.59%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -4.59%E -1.12%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-07 21:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.30%EV -6.21%E -3.30%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -4.59%E -1.12%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-06 04:19 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.03%EV -8.74%E -2.57%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.14%EV -1.22%E -0.618%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.83%EV -6.91%E -1.73%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-03 21:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.48%EV -0.226%E -0.113%K -0.226%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -6.91%E -1.73%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-04 05:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -3.37%E -0.936%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.93%EV -5.21%E -2.74%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -6.91%E -1.73%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 03:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.05%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -4.72%E -2.47%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -6.91%E -1.73%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-08 03:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -3.37%E -0.936%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.20%EV -6.21%E -3.30%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -6.91%E -1.73%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 23:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -12.76%E -3.93%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.52%EV -1.22%E -0.618%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -6.91%E -1.73%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-04 05:21 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -12.76%E -3.93%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -2.72%E -1.40%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -6.91%E -1.73%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-04 05:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -12.76%E -3.93%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -2.72%E -1.40%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -6.91%E -1.73%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-04 05:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -12.76%E -3.93%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -2.72%E -1.40%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -6.91%E -1.73%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-04 05:14 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -7.40%E -2.14%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.44%EV -9.21%E -5.06%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -6.91%E -1.73%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-08 03:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.61%EV -4.71%E -1.33%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -4.72%E -2.47%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.92%EV -8.08%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 03:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.10%EV -14.11%E -4.41%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.14%EV -8.71%E -4.76%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.76%EV -8.08%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-06 04:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.10%EV -14.11%E -4.41%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.14%EV -8.71%E -4.76%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.76%EV -8.08%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-06 04:19 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -6.05%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -4.72%E -2.47%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -9.24%E -2.37%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 03:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.05%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.26%EV -5.21%E -2.74%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -9.24%E -2.37%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-08 03:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -0.686%E -0.185%K -0.254%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -8.71%E -4.76%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -9.24%E -2.37%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-07 21:14 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.12%EV -4.71%E -1.33%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.11%EV -7.71%E -4.17%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -9.24%E -2.37%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-08 03:23 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.34%EV -4.72%E -2.47%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -9.24%E -2.37%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-07 21:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.34%EV -4.72%E -2.47%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -9.24%E -2.37%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-07 21:08 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.34%EV -4.72%E -2.47%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -9.24%E -2.37%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-07 21:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -11.42%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.34%EV -4.72%E -2.47%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -9.24%E -2.37%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-07 21:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -6.05%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -8.71%E -4.76%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -9.24%E -2.37%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-08 03:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -10.08%E -3.01%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.31%EV -11.20%E -6.29%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.96%EV -9.24%E -2.37%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-08 03:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.82%EV -4.71%E -1.33%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.37%EV -9.21%E -5.06%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.81%EV -10.41%E -2.70%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-07 21:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -6.05%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -4.72%E -2.47%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -11.57%E -3.04%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-08 03:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -8.74%E -2.57%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -4.72%E -2.47%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -11.57%E -3.04%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-08 03:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -6.05%E -1.73%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.35%EV -6.71%E -3.59%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -11.57%E -3.04%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-08 03:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.97%EV -8.74%E -2.57%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 50.17%EV -12.20%E -6.93%K -16.05%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.86%EV -13.90%E -3.76%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-05-08 03:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.66% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.45% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.88% | 5.1% | 2026-05-08 05:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.98% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45% | 6.0% | 2026-05-08 06:44 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.98% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45% | 6.0% | 2026-05-08 06:44 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.42% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.70% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 06:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.32% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04% | 8.0% | 2026-05-08 06:43 |