Language:English
Swindon Town v Chesterfield FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Swindon Town (Local)
Prediction 28.72%3.48fair odd
EV -0.927%
Edge -0.269%
Kelly -0.378%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.15%28.77%28.75%30.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.173.203.4533.33%31.56%31.25%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Chesterfield FC (Visit)
Prediction 45.82%2.18fair odd
EV -1.04%
Edge -0.480%
Kelly -0.893%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.16
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.62%45.69%45.82%47.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.052.052.1652.36%48.73%48.78%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.47%3.93fair odd
EV -3.23%
Edge -0.849%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.76%25.53%25.43%27.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.573.603.8032.26%28.04%27.78%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Swindon Town (Local): 28.72%; Chesterfield FC (Visit): 45.82%; Draw: 25.47%. For Swindon Town (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.48. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.45, with an expected value of -0.927%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -0.927%E -0.269%K -0.378%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.54%EV -9.74%E -4.94%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.31%EV -5.77%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -0.927%E -0.269%K -0.378%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.54%EV -9.74%E -4.94%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.31%EV -5.77%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-02 13:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -2.36%E -0.695%K -0.985%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -8.37%E -4.18%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -3.23%E -0.849%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-02 13:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -2.36%E -0.695%K -0.985%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -8.37%E -4.18%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -4.50%E -1.20%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-02 13:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.36I 29.76%NM 28.37%EV -3.51%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.28%EV -5.62%E -2.73%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.76I 26.60%NM 25.35%EV -4.25%E -1.13%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-02 13:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.25%EV -3.80%E -1.13%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.17%EV -6.08%E -2.96%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.58%EV -5.77%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-02 13:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -3.80%E -1.13%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -9.28%E -4.69%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -5.77%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-02 13:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -3.80%E -1.13%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.03%EV -9.28%E -4.69%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -5.77%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-02 13:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -5.23%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -6.08%E -2.96%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-02 13:24 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -5.23%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.84%EV -9.28%E -4.69%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -5.77%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-02 13:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.26I 30.67%NM 28.69%EV -6.38%E -1.96%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.40%EV -5.62%E -2.73%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.61I 27.70%NM 25.91%EV -8.07%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -6.67%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.14%EV -7.45%E -3.69%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -5.77%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-02 13:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -6.67%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.14%EV -7.45%E -3.69%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -5.77%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-02 13:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -6.67%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -8.37%E -4.18%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-02 13:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -6.67%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -8.37%E -4.18%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -9.59%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -6.67%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.85%EV -10.66%E -5.47%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.03%EV -7.05%E -1.93%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-02 13:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.22I 31.06%NM 28.79%EV -7.53%E -2.34%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.45%EV -6.53%E -3.20%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.76%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -8.11%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -3.78%E -1.80%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-02 13:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -8.11%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -3.78%E -1.80%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-02 13:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.29%EV -8.11%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.72%EV -6.08%E -2.96%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -4.50%E -1.20%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-02 13:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.18%EV -8.11%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.89%EV -4.70%E -2.26%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-02 13:31 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.11%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -8.37%E -4.18%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -5.77%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-02 13:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.11%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -6.08%E -2.96%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -10.87%E -3.10%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-02 13:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.11%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -6.08%E -2.96%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -10.87%E -3.10%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-02 13:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -8.11%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -8.37%E -4.18%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-02 13:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -8.11%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -8.37%E -4.18%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -10.87%E -3.10%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-02 13:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -8.11%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -8.37%E -4.18%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -10.87%E -3.10%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-02 13:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -8.11%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -8.37%E -4.18%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -10.87%E -3.10%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-02 13:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -8.11%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.49%EV -10.66%E -5.47%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-02 13:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -8.11%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.49%EV -10.66%E -5.47%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-02 13:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -9.54%E -3.03%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.32%EV -8.37%E -4.18%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -10.87%E -3.10%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-02 13:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -10.98%E -3.54%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -6.08%E -2.96%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -4.50%E -1.20%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -10.98%E -3.54%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.08%E -2.96%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-02 13:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -10.98%E -3.54%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.67%EV -6.08%E -2.96%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.79%EV -9.59%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-02 13:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -10.98%E -3.54%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -6.08%E -2.96%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -10.87%E -3.10%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.38%EV -10.98%E -3.54%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 45.32%EV -7.91%E -3.93%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-02 13:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -10.98%E -3.54%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -10.66%E -5.47%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-02 13:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.69%EV -13.85%E -4.62%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.62%EV -1.04%E -0.480%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.69%EV -12.14%E -3.52%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.69%EV -13.85%E -4.62%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.62%EV -1.04%E -0.480%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.69%EV -12.14%E -3.52%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.69%EV -13.85%E -4.62%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.62%EV -1.04%E -0.480%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.69%EV -12.14%E -3.52%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.69%EV -13.85%E -4.62%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.62%EV -1.04%E -0.480%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.69%EV -12.14%E -3.52%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.69%EV -13.85%E -4.62%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.62%EV -1.04%E -0.480%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.69%EV -12.14%E -3.52%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.69%EV -13.85%E -4.62%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.62%EV -1.04%E -0.480%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.69%EV -12.14%E -3.52%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.69%EV -13.85%E -4.62%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.62%EV -1.04%E -0.480%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.69%EV -12.14%E -3.52%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.69%EV -13.85%E -4.62%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.62%EV -1.04%E -0.480%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.69%EV -12.14%E -3.52%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.69%EV -13.85%E -4.62%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.62%EV -1.04%E -0.480%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.69%EV -12.14%E -3.52%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.69%EV -13.85%E -4.62%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.62%EV -1.04%E -0.480%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.69%EV -12.14%E -3.52%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.69%EV -13.85%E -4.62%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.62%EV -1.04%E -0.480%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.69%EV -12.14%E -3.52%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -13.85%E -4.62%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.68%EV -1.95%E -0.912%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -13.41%E -3.95%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -13.85%E -4.62%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.68%EV -1.95%E -0.912%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -13.41%E -3.95%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -13.85%E -4.62%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.68%EV -1.95%E -0.912%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -13.41%E -3.95%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-02 12:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.26%EV -13.85%E -4.62%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 44.39%EV -12.49%E -6.54%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.35%EV -21.05%E -6.79%K -10.03%G +0.000% | 17.9% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.08% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76% | 0.8% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.08% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76% | 0.8% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.08% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76% | 0.8% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.08% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76% | 0.8% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.15% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.80% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.04% | 2.4% | 2026-05-02 13:55 |