The School of Odds

Notts County v Leicester City

2026-08-15 11:30 UTC — League 1

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Head to Head

44 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Notts County (Local)

Prediction 27.39%3.65fair odd
EV -1.39%
Edge -0.387%
Kelly -0.536%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.53%27.28%27.31%28.46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.203.373.403.6031%30%29%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Leicester City (Visit)

Prediction 45.05%2.22fair odd
EV -5.40%
Edge -2.57%
Kelly -4.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.59%45.11%45.06%46.67%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.952.012.002.1051%50%50%48%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 27.56%3.63fair odd
EV -3.54%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.13%27.60%27.63%29.64%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.103.333.303.5032%30%30%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -1.39%E -0.387%K -0.536%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -7.65%E -3.73%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -14.56%E -4.70%K -6.94%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-17 12:55
Betr (AU)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.13%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.65%E -3.73%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -3.54%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-30 05:38
SportsBet3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -4.13%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.30%EV -8.55%E -4.21%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -3.54%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-30 05:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -4.13%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -9.90%E -4.95%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -3.54%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-09 07:34
1xBet3.44I 29.07%NM 27.24%EV -5.78%E -1.68%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.04%EV -6.30%E -3.03%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.72%EV -6.85%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-14 08:59
Marathon Bet3.44I 29.07%NM 27.12%EV -5.78%E -1.68%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.28%EV -7.20%E -3.49%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.60%EV -6.85%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-14 08:59
Ladbrokes (UK)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -5.40%E -2.57%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -3.54%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 16:09
Coral3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -5.40%E -2.57%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -3.54%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 19:44
Unibet (UK)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -7.65%E -3.73%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -9.05%E -2.74%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 16:35
Bet Right3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -9.90%E -4.95%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -6.30%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-30 05:39
Paddy Power3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -9.90%E -4.95%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -6.30%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-30 05:39
Fanatics3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -9.90%E -4.95%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -9.05%E -2.74%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-16 15:45
Virgin Bet3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.43%EV -10.80%E -5.46%K -11.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -11.81%E -3.69%K -5.37%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-30 09:39
LiveScore Bet3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.43%EV -10.80%E -5.46%K -11.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -11.81%E -3.69%K -5.37%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-30 09:39
Unibet3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.43%EV -10.80%E -5.46%K -11.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -11.81%E -3.69%K -5.37%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-30 10:39
BetRivers3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.56%EV -11.25%E -5.71%K -11.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -11.81%E -3.69%K -5.37%G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-30 06:49
LeoVegas (SE)3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.56%EV -11.25%E -5.71%K -11.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -11.81%E -3.69%K -5.37%G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-30 09:39
betPARX3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.56%EV -11.25%E -5.71%K -11.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -11.81%E -3.69%K -5.37%G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-30 09:39
ATG (SE)3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.56%EV -11.25%E -5.71%K -11.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -11.81%E -3.69%K -5.37%G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-30 09:39
Svenska Spel3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.56%EV -11.25%E -5.71%K -11.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -11.81%E -3.69%K -5.37%G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-30 09:39
Grosvenor3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.56%EV -11.25%E -5.71%K -11.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -11.81%E -3.69%K -5.37%G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-30 09:59
Unibet (SE)3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.56%EV -11.25%E -5.71%K -11.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -11.81%E -3.69%K -5.37%G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-30 09:59
Casumo3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.56%EV -11.25%E -5.71%K -11.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -11.81%E -3.69%K -5.37%G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-30 09:59
Unibet (NL)3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.56%EV -11.25%E -5.71%K -11.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -11.81%E -3.69%K -5.37%G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-30 10:00
TABtouch3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.56%EV -11.25%E -5.71%K -11.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -11.81%E -3.69%K -5.37%G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-30 10:20
Betsson3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -8.24%E -2.46%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -6.30%E -3.03%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -4.92%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-17 00:00
NordicBet3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -8.24%E -2.46%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -6.30%E -3.03%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -4.92%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-17 00:00
Neds3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -8.24%E -2.46%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.15%EV -7.65%E -3.73%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -6.30%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-17 19:40
Ladbrokes (AU)3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -8.24%E -2.46%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.15%EV -7.65%E -3.73%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -6.30%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-17 19:39
Bovada3.35I 29.85%NM 27.52%EV -8.24%E -2.46%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.97%EV -7.65%E -3.73%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.52%EV -7.67%E -2.29%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-25 15:56
Codere (IT)3.35I 29.85%NM 27.05%EV -8.24%E -2.46%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 45.08%EV -9.45%E -4.70%K -9.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.88%EV -10.43%E -3.21%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.4%2026-06-30 05:39
BetMGM3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -9.61%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -7.65%E -3.73%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -6.30%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-17 15:54
Bet Victor3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.61%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -7.65%E -3.73%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.05%E -2.74%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-10 10:04
betano_uk3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.61%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -7.65%E -3.73%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.05%E -2.74%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-12 08:38
LeoVegas3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -9.61%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -9.90%E -4.95%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -9.05%E -2.74%K -3.94%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-22 15:39
TAB3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -9.61%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -9.90%E -4.95%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -9.05%E -2.74%K -3.94%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-17 00:04
Sky Bet3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -9.61%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.64%EV -12.15%E -6.23%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -10.43%E -3.21%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.4%2026-06-30 05:39
betfred_uk3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -10.98%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -7.65%E -3.73%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -3.54%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-07 18:50
Betway3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -10.98%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -7.65%E -3.73%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -6.30%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-17 10:25
888sport (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -10.98%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -9.90%E -4.95%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -3.54%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%9.3%2026-06-30 09:39
888sport3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -10.98%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -9.90%E -4.95%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -3.54%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%9.3%2026-06-30 09:49
Mr Green (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -10.98%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -9.90%E -4.95%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -3.54%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%9.3%2026-06-30 09:49
William Hill3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -10.98%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -9.90%E -4.95%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -3.54%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%9.3%2026-06-30 14:19
BoyleSports3.20I 31.25%NM 27.46%EV -12.35%E -3.86%K -5.61%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.07%EV -12.15%E -6.23%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.46%EV -11.81%E -3.69%K -5.37%G +0.000%13.8%2026-06-30 05:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets3.35I 29.85%NM 26.81%1.99I 50.25%NM 45.13%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%11.4%2026-07-08 00:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.00I 50.00%NM 33.43%1.51I 66.23%NM 44.28%3.00I 33.33%NM 22.29%49.6%2026-07-21 12:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 33.43%1.51I 66.23%NM 44.28%3.00I 33.33%NM 22.29%49.6%2026-07-21 12:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 33.43%1.51I 66.23%NM 44.28%3.00I 33.33%NM 22.29%49.6%2026-07-21 12:25