Language:English
Luton v Northampton Town
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Luton (Local)
Prediction 72.08%1.39fair odd
EV -4.13%
Edge -3.10%
Kelly -12.51%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.30%72.06%72.20%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.291.291.3381.97%77.56%77.52%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Northampton Town (Visit)
Prediction 10.76%9.29fair odd
EV +7.60%
Edge +0.760%
Kelly +0.844%
Growth +0.064%
assuming max odds 10.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.18%10.79%10.69%12.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.508.668.8010.0013.33%11.54%11.36%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 17.16%5.83fair odd
EV +2.94%
Edge +0.491%
Kelly +0.589%
Growth +0.017%
assuming max odds 6.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.55%17.14%17.11%19.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.335.256.0022.22%18.75%19.05%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luton (Local): 72.08%; Northampton Town (Visit): 10.76%; Draw: 17.16%. For Northampton Town (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.29. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.60%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -9.90%E -7.92%K -39.58%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV +7.60%E +0.760%K +0.844%G +0.064% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -5.63%E -1.02%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-15 17:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.72%EV -7.73%E -6.04%K -27.62%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.55%EV +4.91%E +0.503%K +0.561%G +0.028% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -9.92%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-15 17:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.97%EV -7.01%E -5.44%K -24.18%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.91%EV +2.22%E +0.233%K +0.261%G +0.006% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -5.63%E -1.02%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-15 08:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.97%EV -7.01%E -5.44%K -24.18%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.91%EV +2.22%E +0.233%K +0.261%G +0.006% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -5.63%E -1.02%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-15 17:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.13%EV -7.73%E -6.04%K -27.62%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.85%EV +2.22%E +0.233%K +0.261%G +0.006% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -5.63%E -1.02%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-15 17:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.63%EV -9.90%E -7.92%K -39.58%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV +2.22%E +0.233%K +0.261%G +0.006% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV +2.94%E +0.491%K +0.589%G +0.017% | 7.2% | 2026-04-15 18:01 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.63%EV -9.90%E -7.92%K -39.58%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV +2.22%E +0.233%K +0.261%G +0.006% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV +2.94%E +0.491%K +0.589%G +0.017% | 7.2% | 2026-04-15 18:01 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.75%EV -7.01%E -5.44%K -24.18%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV +2.22%E +0.233%K +0.261%G +0.006% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -14.21%E -2.84%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-15 17:29 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.70%EV -8.45%E -6.66%K -31.31%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.72%EV +2.22%E +0.233%K +0.261%G +0.006% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.59%EV -9.92%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-15 17:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 71.45%EV -12.06%E -9.88%K -54.81%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.18%EV +2.22%E +0.233%K +0.261%G +0.006% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.37%EV -22.79%E -5.06%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-04-15 17:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.58%EV -6.29%E -4.84%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.40%EV -1.01%E -0.110%K -0.123%G +0.000% | 5.97I 16.75%NM 16.02%EV +2.43%E +0.407%K +0.489%G +0.012% | 4.5% | 2026-04-15 18:01 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.96%EV -6.29%E -4.84%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.39%EV -3.16%E -0.352%K -0.395%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.65%EV -9.07%E -1.71%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-15 07:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.96%EV -6.29%E -4.84%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.39%EV -3.16%E -0.352%K -0.395%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.65%EV -9.07%E -1.71%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-15 07:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.96%EV -6.29%E -4.84%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.39%EV -3.16%E -0.352%K -0.395%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.65%EV -9.07%E -1.71%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-15 07:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.84%EV -7.73%E -6.04%K -27.62%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -3.16%E -0.352%K -0.395%G +0.000% | 5.55I 18.02%NM 16.80%EV -4.78%E -0.861%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-15 18:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.71%EV -6.29%E -4.84%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -3.16%E -0.352%K -0.395%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -10.78%E -2.07%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-15 07:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.71%EV -6.29%E -4.84%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -3.16%E -0.352%K -0.395%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -10.78%E -2.07%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-15 07:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.71%EV -6.29%E -4.84%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -3.16%E -0.352%K -0.395%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -10.78%E -2.07%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-15 07:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.71%EV -6.29%E -4.84%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -3.16%E -0.352%K -0.395%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -10.78%E -2.07%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-15 07:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.71%EV -6.29%E -4.84%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -3.16%E -0.352%K -0.395%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -10.78%E -2.07%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-15 07:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.71%EV -6.29%E -4.84%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -3.16%E -0.352%K -0.395%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -10.78%E -2.07%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-15 07:39 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.71%EV -6.29%E -4.84%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -3.16%E -0.352%K -0.395%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -10.78%E -2.07%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-15 07:39 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.63%EV -9.90%E -7.92%K -39.58%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -3.16%E -0.352%K -0.395%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.15%EV -2.20%E -0.387%K -0.469%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-15 17:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.31%EV -8.45%E -6.66%K -31.31%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV -3.16%E -0.352%K -0.395%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.49%EV -9.92%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-15 17:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.60%EV -7.01%E -5.44%K -24.18%G +0.000% | 8.90I 11.24%NM 10.52%EV -4.24%E -0.476%K -0.537%G +0.000% | 5.55I 18.02%NM 16.88%EV -4.78%E -0.861%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-15 18:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.18%EV -7.01%E -5.44%K -24.18%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.58%EV -5.32%E -0.604%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV -7.35%E -1.36%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-15 18:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.18%EV -7.01%E -5.44%K -24.18%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.58%EV -5.32%E -0.604%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV -7.35%E -1.36%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-15 18:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -6.29%E -4.84%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -8.54%E -1.01%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -1.35%E -0.234%K -0.283%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-15 18:01 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.40%EV -6.29%E -4.84%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV -8.54%E -1.01%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.68%EV -9.92%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-15 18:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.44%EV -7.01%E -5.44%K -24.18%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -8.54%E -1.01%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.72%EV -10.78%E -2.07%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-15 07:39 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.44%EV -7.01%E -5.44%K -24.18%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -8.54%E -1.01%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.72%EV -10.78%E -2.07%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-15 07:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -6.29%E -4.84%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -8.54%E -1.01%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -14.21%E -2.84%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-15 18:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.76%EV -9.90%E -7.92%K -39.58%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -8.54%E -1.01%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -5.63%E -1.02%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-15 18:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.51%EV -8.45%E -6.66%K -31.31%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.68%EV -8.54%E -1.01%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.81%EV -12.50%E -2.45%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-15 07:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.51%EV -8.45%E -6.66%K -31.31%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.68%EV -8.54%E -1.01%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.81%EV -12.50%E -2.45%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-15 07:39 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.99%EV -8.45%E -6.66%K -31.31%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.08%EV -11.23%E -1.36%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.93%EV -7.35%E -1.36%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-15 18:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.99%EV -8.45%E -6.66%K -31.31%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.08%EV -11.23%E -1.36%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.93%EV -7.35%E -1.36%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-15 18:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.55%EV -4.13%E -3.10%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV -13.92%E -1.74%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -1.35%E -0.234%K -0.283%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-15 18:01 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -4.13%E -3.10%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -13.92%E -1.74%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -5.63%E -1.02%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-15 18:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -4.13%E -3.10%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -13.92%E -1.74%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -5.63%E -1.02%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-15 18:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.08%EV -7.01%E -5.44%K -24.18%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.46%EV -13.92%E -1.74%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.46%EV -9.92%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-15 18:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -6.29%E -4.84%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -13.92%E -1.74%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -14.21%E -2.84%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-15 18:01 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -6.29%E -4.84%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -13.92%E -1.74%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -14.21%E -2.84%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-15 18:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -6.29%E -4.84%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -13.92%E -1.74%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -14.21%E -2.84%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-15 18:01 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -6.29%E -4.84%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -13.92%E -1.74%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -14.21%E -2.84%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-15 18:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.23%EV -7.73%E -6.04%K -27.62%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -13.92%E -1.74%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.37%EV -9.92%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-15 18:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.46%EV -7.01%E -5.44%K -24.18%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -13.92%E -1.74%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -14.21%E -2.84%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-15 18:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.29%E -4.84%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.91%EV -16.08%E -2.06%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.60%EV -3.92%E -0.700%K -0.852%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-15 18:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.29%E -4.84%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.91%EV -16.08%E -2.06%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.60%EV -3.92%E -0.700%K -0.852%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-15 18:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.68%EV -4.85%E -3.67%K -15.16%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.04%EV -16.61%E -2.14%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.28%EV -7.35%E -1.36%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-15 18:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.68%EV -4.85%E -3.67%K -15.16%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.04%EV -16.61%E -2.14%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.28%EV -7.35%E -1.36%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-15 18:01 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.53%EV -7.01%E -5.44%K -24.18%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 11.97%EV -18.23%E -2.40%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.50%EV -10.78%E -2.07%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-15 18:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.38%EV -6.29%E -4.84%K -20.97%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -19.30%E -2.57%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.43%EV -9.92%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-15 18:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.04% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.99% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.98% | 1.2% | 2026-04-15 18:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.04% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.99% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.98% | 1.2% | 2026-04-15 18:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.04% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.99% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.98% | 1.2% | 2026-04-15 18:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.04% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.99% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.98% | 1.2% | 2026-04-15 18:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.18% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.93% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.89% | 1.8% | 2026-04-15 18:00 |