Language:English
Luton v Exeter City
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Luton (Local)
Prediction 58.58%1.71fair odd
EV -2.76%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -4.18%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.66
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.27%58.52%58.64%60.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.601.601.6665.36%62.51%62.50%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Exeter City (Visit)
Prediction 18.66%5.36fair odd
EV +2.62%
Edge +0.476%
Kelly +0.582%
Growth +0.015%
assuming max odds 5.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.31%18.61%18.63%20.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.914.935.5022.22%20.36%20.30%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.76%4.39fair odd
EV +2.44%
Edge +0.543%
Kelly +0.698%
Growth +0.017%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.66%22.86%22.72%24.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.024.004.5028.57%24.90%25.00%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luton (Local): 58.58%; Exeter City (Visit): 18.66%; Draw: 22.76%. For Exeter City (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.36. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.62%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.75%EV -10.38%E -6.78%K -19.58%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.59%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.66%EV +2.44%E +0.543%K +0.698%G +0.017% | 7.6% | 2026-03-17 19:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.97%EV -6.28%E -3.92%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.45%EV +2.62%E +0.476%K +0.582%G +0.015% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.58%EV -3.25%E -0.765%K -1.000%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-17 19:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.97%EV -6.28%E -3.92%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.45%EV +2.62%E +0.476%K +0.582%G +0.015% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.58%EV -3.25%E -0.765%K -1.000%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-17 19:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.84%EV -6.28%E -3.92%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 5.48I 18.25%NM 17.47%EV +2.24%E +0.410%K +0.501%G +0.011% | 4.22I 23.70%NM 22.69%EV -3.93%E -0.932%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-17 19:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -3.35%E -2.03%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.79%EV -10.44%E -2.18%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.62%EV -4.39%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-17 15:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -3.35%E -2.03%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.79%EV -10.44%E -2.18%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.62%EV -4.39%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-17 15:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.64%EV -5.69%E -3.53%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%EV -4.39%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-17 19:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -6.28%E -3.92%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -4.39%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-17 19:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.78%EV -8.03%E -5.12%K -14.09%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -2.05%E -0.390%K -0.482%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -4.39%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-17 19:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.25%EV -8.03%E -5.12%K -14.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -4.39%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-17 19:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.56%EV -9.20%E -5.94%K -16.74%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -4.39%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-17 19:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.77%EV -8.62%E -5.53%K -15.39%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.76%EV -2.05%E -0.390%K -0.482%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.47%EV -5.53%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-17 19:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.83%EV -7.45%E -4.71%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.78%EV -7.64%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.40%EV -5.53%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-17 19:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.83%EV -7.45%E -4.71%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.78%EV -7.64%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.40%EV -5.53%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-17 19:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.01%EV -7.45%E -4.71%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.46%EV -5.78%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 4.14I 24.15%NM 22.52%EV -5.75%E -1.39%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-17 19:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.47%EV -6.28%E -3.92%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -6.66%E -1.63%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-17 19:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.60%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.64%EV -11.38%E -2.39%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -6.66%E -1.63%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-17 15:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.62%EV -6.86%E -4.32%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -6.66%E -1.63%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-17 19:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.23%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -14.17%E -3.08%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -6.66%E -1.63%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-17 15:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.23%EV -5.10%E -3.15%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -14.17%E -3.08%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -6.66%E -1.63%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-17 15:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.24%EV -9.20%E -5.94%K -16.74%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -6.66%E -1.63%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-17 19:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.48%EV -8.03%E -5.12%K -14.09%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -10.44%E -2.18%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -6.66%E -1.63%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-17 19:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -6.28%E -3.92%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -8.94%E -2.24%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-17 19:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.29%EV -6.86%E -4.32%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -8.94%E -2.24%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-17 19:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.45%EV -7.45%E -4.71%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.47%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.09%EV -8.94%E -2.24%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-17 19:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -8.03%E -5.12%K -14.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -8.94%E -2.24%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-17 19:39 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 57.85%EV -6.86%E -4.32%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -10.44%E -2.18%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -8.94%E -2.24%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-17 19:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -8.03%E -5.12%K -14.09%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -10.44%E -2.18%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -8.94%E -2.24%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-17 19:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.35%EV -9.20%E -5.94%K -16.74%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.04%EV -11.38%E -2.39%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -8.94%E -2.24%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-17 19:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.62%EV -2.76%E -1.66%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.58%EV -10.44%E -2.18%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%EV -10.08%E -2.55%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-17 19:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.62%EV -2.76%E -1.66%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.58%EV -10.44%E -2.18%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%EV -10.08%E -2.55%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-17 19:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.62%EV -2.76%E -1.66%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.58%EV -10.44%E -2.18%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%EV -10.08%E -2.55%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-17 19:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.06%EV -7.45%E -4.71%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.72%EV -8.58%E -1.75%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.22%EV -10.08%E -2.55%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-17 19:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.63%EV -3.93%E -2.40%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.55%EV -11.38%E -2.39%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -11.22%E -2.88%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-17 19:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.63%EV -3.93%E -2.40%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.55%EV -11.38%E -2.39%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -11.22%E -2.88%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-17 19:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.63%EV -3.93%E -2.40%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.55%EV -11.38%E -2.39%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -11.22%E -2.88%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-17 19:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.63%EV -3.93%E -2.40%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.55%EV -11.38%E -2.39%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -11.22%E -2.88%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-17 19:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.63%EV -3.93%E -2.40%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.55%EV -11.38%E -2.39%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -11.22%E -2.88%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-17 19:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.63%EV -3.93%E -2.40%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.55%EV -11.38%E -2.39%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -11.22%E -2.88%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-17 19:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.63%EV -3.93%E -2.40%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.55%EV -11.38%E -2.39%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -11.22%E -2.88%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-17 19:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.63%EV -3.93%E -2.40%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.55%EV -11.38%E -2.39%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -11.22%E -2.88%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-17 19:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.63%EV -3.93%E -2.40%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.55%EV -11.38%E -2.39%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -11.22%E -2.88%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-17 19:05 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.39%EV -10.38%E -6.78%K -19.58%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.31%EV -2.05%E -0.390%K -0.482%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.30%EV -11.22%E -2.88%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-17 19:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.57%EV -9.20%E -5.94%K -16.74%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.16%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -11.22%E -2.88%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-17 19:40 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 57.03%EV -6.86%E -4.32%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.71%EV -14.17%E -3.08%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.25%EV -11.22%E -2.88%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-17 19:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.44%EV -6.28%E -3.92%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -13.49%E -3.55%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-17 19:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.44%EV -6.28%E -3.92%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -13.49%E -3.55%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-17 19:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.44%EV -6.28%E -3.92%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -13.49%E -3.55%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-17 19:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.44%EV -6.28%E -3.92%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -13.49%E -3.55%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-17 19:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.62%EV -5.69%E -3.53%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.39%EV -12.31%E -2.62%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.99%EV -13.49%E -3.55%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-17 19:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.62%EV -5.69%E -3.53%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.39%EV -12.31%E -2.62%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.99%EV -13.49%E -3.55%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-17 19:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 56.27%EV -10.38%E -6.78%K -19.58%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.13%EV -16.04%E -3.56%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.60%EV -20.32%E -5.81%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-03-17 18:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.85% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.10% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.04% | 0.8% | 2026-03-17 19:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.67% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.35% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.98% | 1.1% | 2026-03-17 19:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.67% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.35% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.98% | 1.1% | 2026-03-17 19:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.67% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.35% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.98% | 1.1% | 2026-03-17 19:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.67% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.35% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.98% | 1.1% | 2026-03-17 19:40 |