Language:English
Cardiff City v Bolton Wanderers
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Cardiff City (Local)
Prediction 51.69%1.93fair odd
EV -4.38%
Edge -2.37%
Kelly -5.15%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.88%51.85%51.65%53.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.791.801.8558.82%55.91%55.56%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Bolton Wanderers (Visit)
Prediction 24.62%4.06fair odd
EV +0.961%
Edge +0.234%
Kelly +0.310%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 4.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.76%24.43%24.75%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.803.754.1027.78%26.32%26.67%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.69%4.22fair odd
EV -2.87%
Edge -0.701%
Kelly -0.926%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.80%23.72%23.61%26.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.883.904.1030.30%25.80%25.64%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cardiff City (Local): 51.69%; Bolton Wanderers (Visit): 24.62%; Draw: 23.69%. For Bolton Wanderers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.06. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.961%.
Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.32%EV -9.55%E -5.46%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV +0.961%E +0.234%K +0.310%G +0.003% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -7.61%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-11 11:14 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%EV -6.45%E -3.56%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 4.09I 24.45%NM 23.45%EV +0.715%E +0.175%K +0.231%G +0.002% | 4.07I 24.57%NM 23.56%EV -3.58%E -0.880%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-11 11:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.45%EV -11.10%E -6.45%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -1.50%E -0.375%K -0.500%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -7.61%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-11 11:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.97%EV -9.03%E -5.13%K -11.89%G +0.000% | 3.98I 25.13%NM 23.42%EV -1.99%E -0.501%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -6.43%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-11 11:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.16%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -2.73%E -0.692%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -7.61%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.16%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -2.73%E -0.692%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -7.61%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-11 11:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.16%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -2.73%E -0.692%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -7.61%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -8.00%E -4.49%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -2.73%E -0.692%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -8.79%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -8.00%E -4.49%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -2.73%E -0.692%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -8.79%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-11 11:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -8.00%E -4.49%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -2.73%E -0.692%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -8.79%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -8.00%E -4.49%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -2.73%E -0.692%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -8.79%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -8.00%E -4.49%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -2.73%E -0.692%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -8.79%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -8.00%E -4.49%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -2.73%E -0.692%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -8.79%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -8.00%E -4.49%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -2.73%E -0.692%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -8.79%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.26%EV -8.52%E -4.81%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -3.96%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -8.79%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.26%EV -8.52%E -4.81%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -3.96%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -8.79%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.40%EV -8.00%E -4.49%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 3.87I 25.84%NM 24.10%EV -4.70%E -1.22%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.97I 25.19%NM 23.50%EV -5.95%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-11 11:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.36%EV -10.07%E -5.79%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -5.20%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.98%EV -9.98%E -2.63%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.36%EV -10.07%E -5.79%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -5.20%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.98%EV -9.98%E -2.63%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.57%EV -5.42%E -2.96%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.84%EV -6.43%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -5.24%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-11 11:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -6.43%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -5.24%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-11 11:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -6.43%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -9.98%E -2.63%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.13%EV -4.38%E -2.37%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -7.66%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -5.24%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.54%EV -5.93%E -3.26%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -7.66%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -5.24%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-11 11:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -7.66%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -5.24%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-11 11:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.51%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -7.66%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -7.61%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-11 11:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -7.66%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.01%EV -8.79%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-11 11:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -7.66%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -11.16%E -2.98%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-11 11:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -7.66%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -11.16%E -2.98%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -7.66%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -11.16%E -2.98%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -7.66%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -11.16%E -2.98%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-11 11:15 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.34%EV -10.58%E -6.12%K -14.50%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.14%EV -7.66%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.52%EV -8.79%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -4.38%E -2.37%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -8.89%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.61%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -4.38%E -2.37%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -8.89%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.61%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -4.38%E -2.37%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -8.89%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.61%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.93%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -8.89%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -2.87%E -0.701%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-11 09:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.21%EV -5.93%E -3.26%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.89%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -6.43%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-11 11:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.21%EV -5.93%E -3.26%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.89%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -6.43%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -5.42%E -2.96%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.89%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -7.61%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.64%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -8.89%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -5.24%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-11 09:34 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.88%EV -6.45%E -3.56%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -8.89%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -9.98%E -2.63%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.88%EV -6.45%E -3.56%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -8.89%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -9.98%E -2.63%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.91%EV -8.52%E -4.81%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -8.89%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.26%EV -6.43%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-11 11:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.75%EV -8.52%E -4.81%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -8.89%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.49%EV -7.61%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-11 11:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.46%EV -8.00%E -4.49%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.75%EV -8.89%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.79%EV -8.79%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-11 11:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.39%EV -9.55%E -5.46%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -8.89%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -12.35%E -3.34%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-11 11:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -11.35%E -3.15%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -5.24%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-11 11:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.70%EV -8.52%E -4.81%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -11.35%E -3.15%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.88%EV -5.24%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-11 11:04 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.95%EV -8.00%E -4.49%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -11.35%E -3.15%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -9.98%E -2.63%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-11 11:14 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.09%EV -12.13%E -7.14%K -17.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.60%EV -11.35%E -3.15%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.31%EV -9.98%E -2.63%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-04-11 11:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 49.88%EV -10.58%E -6.12%K -14.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.97%EV -11.35%E -3.15%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.15%EV -21.82%E -6.61%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 15.9% | 2026-04-11 09:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 53.88% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06% | 0.9% | 2026-04-11 11:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.02% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99% | 1.2% | 2026-04-11 11:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.02% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99% | 1.2% | 2026-04-11 11:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.02% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99% | 1.2% | 2026-04-11 11:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 53.30% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.35% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.35% | 2.0% | 2026-04-11 11:25 |