La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Cardiff City v Bolton Wanderers
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Cardiff City (Local)
Predicción 51.69%1.93momio equitativo
EV -4.38%
Ventaja -2.37%
Kelly -5.15%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.85
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
49.88%51.85%51.65%53.45%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.701.791.801.8558.82%55.91%55.56%54.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Bolton Wanderers (Visitante)
Predicción 24.62%4.06momio equitativo
EV +0.961%
Ventaja +0.234%
Kelly +0.310%
Crecimiento +0.003%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.10
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.76%24.43%24.75%25.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.603.803.754.1027.78%26.32%26.67%24.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 23.69%4.22momio equitativo
EV -2.87%
Ventaja -0.701%
Kelly -0.926%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.10
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.80%23.72%23.61%26.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.883.904.1030.30%25.80%25.64%24.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (51 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Victor | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.32%EV -9.55%E -5.46%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV +0.961%E +0.234%K +0.310%G +0.003% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -7.61%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-11 11:14 |
| Pinnacle | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%EV -6.45%E -3.56%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 4.09I 24.45%NM 23.45%EV +0.715%E +0.175%K +0.231%G +0.002% | 4.07I 24.57%NM 23.56%EV -3.58%E -0.880%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-11 11:15 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.45%EV -11.10%E -6.45%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -1.50%E -0.375%K -0.500%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -7.61%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-11 11:14 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.97%EV -9.03%E -5.13%K -11.89%G +0.000% | 3.98I 25.13%NM 23.42%EV -1.99%E -0.501%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -6.43%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-11 11:25 |
| LeoVegas | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.16%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -2.73%E -0.692%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -7.61%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.16%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -2.73%E -0.692%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -7.61%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-11 11:04 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.16%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -2.73%E -0.692%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -7.61%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| Unibet | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -8.00%E -4.49%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -2.73%E -0.692%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -8.79%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| TABtouch | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -8.00%E -4.49%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -2.73%E -0.692%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -8.79%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-11 11:04 |
| Grosvenor | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -8.00%E -4.49%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -2.73%E -0.692%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -8.79%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -8.00%E -4.49%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -2.73%E -0.692%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -8.79%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -8.00%E -4.49%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -2.73%E -0.692%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -8.79%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| Casumo | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -8.00%E -4.49%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -2.73%E -0.692%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -8.79%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| betPARX | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -8.00%E -4.49%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -2.73%E -0.692%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.17%EV -8.79%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.26%EV -8.52%E -4.81%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -3.96%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -8.79%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| BetRivers | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.26%EV -8.52%E -4.81%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -3.96%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -8.79%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| 1xBet | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.40%EV -8.00%E -4.49%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 3.87I 25.84%NM 24.10%EV -4.70%E -1.22%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.97I 25.19%NM 23.50%EV -5.95%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-11 11:20 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.36%EV -10.07%E -5.79%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -5.20%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.98%EV -9.98%E -2.63%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.36%EV -10.07%E -5.79%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -5.20%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.98%EV -9.98%E -2.63%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| DraftKings | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.57%EV -5.42%E -2.96%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.84%EV -6.43%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -5.24%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-11 11:04 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -6.43%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -5.24%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-11 11:15 |
| Fanatics | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -6.43%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -9.98%E -2.63%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| Coral | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.13%EV -4.38%E -2.37%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -7.66%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -5.24%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.54%EV -5.93%E -3.26%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -7.66%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -5.24%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-11 11:15 |
| Coolbet | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -7.66%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -5.24%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-11 11:15 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.51%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -7.66%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -7.61%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-11 11:15 |
| PlayUp | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -7.66%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.01%EV -8.79%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-11 11:04 |
| 888sport | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -7.66%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -11.16%E -2.98%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-11 11:15 |
| William Hill | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -7.66%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -11.16%E -2.98%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -7.66%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -11.16%E -2.98%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -7.66%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -11.16%E -2.98%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-11 11:15 |
| Everygame | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.34%EV -10.58%E -6.12%K -14.50%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.14%EV -7.66%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.52%EV -8.79%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -4.38%E -2.37%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -8.89%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.61%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| Neds | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -4.38%E -2.37%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -8.89%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.61%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -4.38%E -2.37%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -8.89%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.61%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| SportsBet | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.93%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -8.89%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -2.87%E -0.701%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-11 09:35 |
| Betsson | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.21%EV -5.93%E -3.26%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.89%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -6.43%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-11 11:04 |
| NordicBet | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.21%EV -5.93%E -3.26%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.89%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -6.43%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| BetMGM | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -5.42%E -2.96%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.89%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -7.61%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| Paddy Power | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.64%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -8.89%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -5.24%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-11 09:34 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.88%EV -6.45%E -3.56%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -8.89%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -9.98%E -2.63%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.88%EV -6.45%E -3.56%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -8.89%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -9.98%E -2.63%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-11 11:05 |
| BetUS | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.91%EV -8.52%E -4.81%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -8.89%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.26%EV -6.43%E -1.63%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-11 11:15 |
| theScore Bet | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.75%EV -8.52%E -4.81%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -8.89%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.49%EV -7.61%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-11 11:15 |
| Bet Right | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.46%EV -8.00%E -4.49%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.75%EV -8.89%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.79%EV -8.79%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-11 11:15 |
| TAB | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.39%EV -9.55%E -5.46%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -8.89%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -12.35%E -3.34%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-11 11:15 |
| Sky Bet | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -6.97%E -3.87%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -11.35%E -3.15%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -5.24%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-11 11:20 |
| Betway | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.70%EV -8.52%E -4.81%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -11.35%E -3.15%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.88%EV -5.24%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-11 11:04 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.95%EV -8.00%E -4.49%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -11.35%E -3.15%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -9.98%E -2.63%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-11 11:14 |
| BoyleSports | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.09%EV -12.13%E -7.14%K -17.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.60%EV -11.35%E -3.15%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.31%EV -9.98%E -2.63%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-04-11 11:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.73I 57.80%NM 49.88%EV -10.58%E -6.12%K -14.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.97%EV -11.35%E -3.15%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.15%EV -21.82%E -6.61%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 15.9% | 2026-04-11 09:35 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.84I 54.35%NM 53.88% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06% | 0.9% | 2026-04-11 11:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.02% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99% | 1.2% | 2026-04-11 11:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.02% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99% | 1.2% | 2026-04-11 11:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.02% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99% | 1.2% | 2026-04-11 11:20 |
| Smarkets | 1.84I 54.35%NM 53.30% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.35% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.35% | 2.0% | 2026-04-11 11:25 |