Language:English
Manchester City v Norwich City
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Manchester City (Local)
Prediction 81.00%1.23fair odd
EV -2.79%
Edge -2.33%
Kelly -13.97%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.86%80.92%80.97%84.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.151.151.2090.91%86.97%86.96%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Norwich City (Visit)
Prediction 6.59%15.18fair odd
EV +51.47%
Edge +2.24%
Kelly +2.34%
Growth +1.20%
assuming max odds 23.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.13%6.53%6.55%8.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0014.9815.0023.009.09%6.68%6.67%4.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 12.41%8.06fair odd
EV +11.69%
Edge +1.30%
Kelly +1.46%
Growth +0.171%
assuming max odds 9.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.83%12.55%12.48%14.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.567.509.0015.38%13.22%13.33%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Manchester City (Local): 81.00%; Norwich City (Visit): 6.59%; Draw: 12.41%. For Norwich City (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 15.18. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 23.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +51.47%.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.01%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.11%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.13%EV +51.47%E +2.24%K +2.34%G +1.20% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.87%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-17 18:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.01%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.11%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.13%EV +51.47%E +2.24%K +2.34%G +1.20% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.87%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-17 18:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 83.20%EV -5.22%E -4.47%K -30.73%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.64%EV +38.30%E +1.82%K +1.92%G +0.733% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.17%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-09-17 18:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 84.04%EV -6.03%E -5.20%K -37.72%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.13%EV +25.13%E +1.32%K +1.40%G +0.351% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.83%EV +11.69%E +1.30%K +1.46%G +0.171% | 2.6% | 2026-09-17 18:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 84.04%EV -6.03%E -5.20%K -37.72%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.13%EV +25.13%E +1.32%K +1.40%G +0.351% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.83%EV +11.69%E +1.30%K +1.46%G +0.171% | 2.6% | 2026-09-17 18:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.24%EV -7.65%E -6.71%K -54.68%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV +11.96%E +0.703%K +0.747%G +0.089% | 8.49I 11.78%NM 11.18%EV +5.36%E +0.631%K +0.715%G +0.038% | 5.4% | 2026-09-17 18:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.50%EV -4.41%E -3.74%K -24.52%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.01%EV +5.37%E +0.336%K +0.358%G +0.019% | 7.70I 12.99%NM 12.49%EV -4.45%E -0.578%K -0.664%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-17 18:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.52%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.11%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.83%EV +5.37%E +0.336%K +0.358%G +0.019% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-17 18:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.52%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.11%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.83%EV +5.37%E +0.336%K +0.358%G +0.019% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-17 18:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.52%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.11%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.83%EV +5.37%E +0.336%K +0.358%G +0.019% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-17 18:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.52%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.11%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.83%EV +5.37%E +0.336%K +0.358%G +0.019% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-17 18:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.52%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.11%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.83%EV +5.37%E +0.336%K +0.358%G +0.019% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-17 18:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.52%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.11%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.83%EV +5.37%E +0.336%K +0.358%G +0.019% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-17 18:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.52%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.11%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.83%EV +5.37%E +0.336%K +0.358%G +0.019% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-17 18:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.75%EV -7.65%E -6.71%K -54.68%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.82%EV +5.37%E +0.336%K +0.358%G +0.019% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-17 18:09 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.94%EV -6.84%E -5.95%K -45.63%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -1.21%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-17 18:23 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.94%EV -6.84%E -5.95%K -45.63%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -1.21%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-17 18:24 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.03%E -5.20%K -37.72%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -1.21%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.55%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-17 18:18 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.63%EV -6.84%E -5.95%K -45.63%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -1.21%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.11%EV -3.83%E -0.494%K -0.567%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-17 18:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -7.65%E -6.71%K -54.68%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -1.21%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-17 18:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.95%EV -6.84%E -5.95%K -45.63%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.21%EV -1.21%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.84%EV -10.03%E -1.38%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-17 18:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -5.22%E -4.47%K -30.73%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV -1.21%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -19.34%E -2.98%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-17 18:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -5.22%E -4.47%K -30.73%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV -1.21%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -19.34%E -2.98%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-17 18:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -5.22%E -4.47%K -30.73%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV -1.21%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -19.34%E -2.98%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-17 18:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.20%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.11%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -1.21%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-17 18:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.20%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.11%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -1.21%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-17 18:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.77%EV -6.84%E -5.95%K -45.63%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.12%EV -1.21%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -19.34%E -2.98%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-17 18:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.74%EV -2.79%E -2.33%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.68%EV -4.51%E -0.311%K -0.334%G +0.000% | 7.70I 12.99%NM 12.58%EV -4.45%E -0.578%K -0.664%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-17 18:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.22%EV -3.60%E -3.03%K -18.97%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.50%EV -4.51%E -0.311%K -0.334%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.28%EV -18.10%E -2.74%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-17 18:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.22%EV -3.60%E -3.03%K -18.97%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.50%EV -4.51%E -0.311%K -0.334%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.28%EV -18.10%E -2.74%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-17 18:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 81.32%EV -10.08%E -9.09%K -91.68%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.23%EV -4.51%E -0.311%K -0.334%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.45%EV -10.03%E -1.38%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-17 18:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -5.22%E -4.47%K -30.73%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV -7.80%E -0.557%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-17 18:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.00%EV -4.41%E -3.74%K -24.52%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.66%EV -7.80%E -0.557%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.34%EV -19.34%E -2.98%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-17 18:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.21%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.11%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.55%EV -7.80%E -0.557%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.24%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-17 18:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 81.34%EV -9.27%E -8.28%K -77.29%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.51%EV -7.80%E -0.557%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.15%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-17 18:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 81.34%EV -9.27%E -8.28%K -77.29%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.51%EV -7.80%E -0.557%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.15%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-17 18:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 81.62%EV -10.89%E -9.90%K -108.95%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.41%EV -7.80%E -0.557%K -0.600%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.97%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-17 18:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.79%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.11%G +0.000% | 13.45I 7.43%NM 6.79%EV -11.42%E -0.849%K -0.917%G +0.000% | 7.35I 13.61%NM 12.42%EV -8.79%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-17 18:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.12%EV -4.41%E -3.74%K -24.52%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -14.39%E -1.11%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-17 18:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.39%EV -6.03%E -5.20%K -37.72%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.17%EV -14.39%E -1.11%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-17 18:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -5.22%E -4.47%K -30.73%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV -14.39%E -1.11%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -13.13%E -1.88%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-17 18:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.82%EV -6.84%E -5.95%K -45.63%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.06%EV -14.39%E -1.11%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV -13.13%E -1.88%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-17 18:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 80.39%EV -10.08%E -9.09%K -91.68%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.86%EV -14.39%E -1.11%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -13.13%E -1.88%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-17 18:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.48%EV -6.03%E -5.20%K -37.72%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.47%EV -17.68%E -1.41%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.05%EV -3.83%E -0.494%K -0.567%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-17 18:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.37%EV -2.79%E -2.33%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.94%EV -20.97%E -1.75%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.70%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-17 18:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.37%EV -2.79%E -2.33%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.94%EV -20.97%E -1.75%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.70%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-17 18:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -6.03%E -5.20%K -37.72%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -20.97%E -1.75%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.68%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-17 18:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 78.86%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.11%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.43%EV -20.97%E -1.75%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.71%EV -19.34%E -2.98%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-17 18:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.81%EV -6.84%E -5.95%K -45.63%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.34%EV -27.56%E -2.51%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.84%EV -3.83%E -0.494%K -0.567%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-17 18:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 79.64%EV -7.65%E -6.71%K -54.68%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.25%EV -27.56%E -2.51%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-17 18:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 83.03% | 19.50I 5.13%NM 5.11% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.86% | 0.4% | 2026-09-17 18:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.63% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.52% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.85% | 0.5% | 2026-09-17 18:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.63% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.52% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.85% | 0.5% | 2026-09-17 18:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.25% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.95% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.79% | 0.9% | 2026-09-17 18:25 |