The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Manchester City v Norwich City

2026-09-17 18:30 UTC — EFL Cup

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manchester City (Local)

Prediction 81.91%1.22fair odd
EV -4.16%
Edge -3.56%
Kelly -24.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.41%81.91%82.20%83.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.091.141.151.1791.74%87.42%86.96%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Norwich City (Visit)

Prediction 6.35%15.74fair odd
EV +7.98%
Edge +0.469%
Kelly +0.498%
Growth +0.040%

assuming max odds 17.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.67%6.37%6.20%8.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0013.5113.0017.0010.00%7.40%7.69%5.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.74%8.52fair odd
EV +5.62%
Edge +0.625%
Kelly +0.703%
Growth +0.040%

assuming max odds 9.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.20%11.72%11.60%13.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.007.687.509.0014.29%13.03%13.33%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Manchester City (Local): 81.91%; Norwich City (Visit): 6.35%; Draw: 11.74%. For Norwich City (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 15.74. 6 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 17.00, producing a positive expected value of +7.98%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 83.12%EV -4.98%E -4.29%K -31.14%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.67%EV +7.98%E +0.469%K +0.498%G +0.040%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.21%EV +0.931%E +0.108%K +0.122%G +0.001%3.7%2026-09-03 19:04
1xBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 82.70%EV -4.16%E -3.56%K -24.49%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.05%EV +1.62%E +0.102%K +0.108%G +0.002%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.25%EV +0.931%E +0.108%K +0.122%G +0.001%3.3%2026-09-03 18:55
SportsBet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.94%EV -8.26%E -7.37%K -68.82%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.81%EV +1.62%E +0.102%K +0.108%G +0.002%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.26%EV -3.18%E -0.385%K -0.438%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-03 16:55
Sky Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.77%EV -9.08%E -8.18%K -82.52%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.74%EV +1.62%E +0.102%K +0.108%G +0.002%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.48%EV -6.11%E -0.764%K -0.873%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-03 16:55
Paddy Power🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.77%EV -9.08%E -8.18%K -82.52%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.74%EV +1.62%E +0.102%K +0.108%G +0.002%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.48%EV -6.11%E -0.764%K -0.873%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-03 16:58
Unibet (UK)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.01%EV -8.26%E -7.37%K -68.82%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.74%EV +1.62%E +0.102%K +0.108%G +0.002%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.25%EV -11.98%E -1.60%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-03 18:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.94%EV -5.80%E -5.04%K -38.67%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -4.73%E -0.315%K -0.338%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -6.11%E -0.764%K -0.873%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 17:00
BoyleSports🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.62%E -5.81%K -47.29%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -4.73%E -0.315%K -0.338%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -11.98%E -1.60%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-03 18:50
FanDuel🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.33%EV -8.26%E -7.37%K -68.82%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.15%EV -4.73%E -0.315%K -0.338%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.53%EV -6.11%E -0.764%K -0.873%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-03 16:55
betano_uk🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -8.26%E -7.37%K -68.82%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -4.73%E -0.315%K -0.338%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -11.98%E -1.60%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-03 16:55
Bet Victor🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -8.26%E -7.37%K -68.82%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -4.73%E -0.315%K -0.338%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -11.98%E -1.60%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-03 16:59
Pinnacle🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.46%EV -7.44%E -6.58%K -57.22%G +0.000%14.24I 7.02%NM 6.54%EV -9.55%E -0.671%K -0.722%G +0.000%8.47I 11.81%NM 11.00%EV -0.595%E -0.070%K -0.080%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 18:55
BetMGM🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.61%EV -4.16%E -3.56%K -24.49%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.82%EV -11.08%E -0.791%K -0.852%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.57%EV -3.18%E -0.385%K -0.438%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-03 18:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.89%EV -4.16%E -3.56%K -24.49%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -17.43%E -1.34%K -1.45%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -6.11%E -0.764%K -0.873%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-03 18:30
Coral🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.89%EV -4.16%E -3.56%K -24.49%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -17.43%E -1.34%K -1.45%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -6.11%E -0.764%K -0.873%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-03 18:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.26%EV -4.16%E -3.56%K -24.49%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.22%EV -17.43%E -1.34%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -11.98%E -1.60%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 16:55
TABtouch🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.26%EV -4.16%E -3.56%K -24.49%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.22%EV -17.43%E -1.34%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -11.98%E -1.60%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 16:55
Grosvenor🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.26%EV -4.16%E -3.56%K -24.49%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.22%EV -17.43%E -1.34%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -11.98%E -1.60%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 16:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.26%EV -4.16%E -3.56%K -24.49%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.22%EV -17.43%E -1.34%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -11.98%E -1.60%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 16:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.26%EV -4.16%E -3.56%K -24.49%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.22%EV -17.43%E -1.34%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -11.98%E -1.60%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 16:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.26%EV -4.16%E -3.56%K -24.49%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.22%EV -17.43%E -1.34%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -11.98%E -1.60%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 16:55
Casumo🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.26%EV -4.16%E -3.56%K -24.49%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.22%EV -17.43%E -1.34%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -11.98%E -1.60%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 17:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.26%EV -4.16%E -3.56%K -24.49%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.22%EV -17.43%E -1.34%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -11.98%E -1.60%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 17:00
betPARX🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.26%EV -4.16%E -3.56%K -24.49%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.22%EV -17.43%E -1.34%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -11.98%E -1.60%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 17:00
Unibet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.26%EV -4.16%E -3.56%K -24.49%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.22%EV -17.43%E -1.34%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -11.98%E -1.60%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 17:15
William Hill🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.53%EV -5.80%E -5.04%K -38.67%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -17.43%E -1.34%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -11.98%E -1.60%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-03 18:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.73%EV -9.08%E -8.18%K -82.52%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.06%EV -17.43%E -1.34%K -1.45%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV +5.62%E +0.625%K +0.703%G +0.040%8.9%2026-09-03 17:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.82%EV -5.80%E -5.04%K -38.67%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.06%EV -17.43%E -1.34%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV -17.85%E -2.55%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-03 18:49
888sport🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.82%EV -5.80%E -5.04%K -38.67%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.06%EV -17.43%E -1.34%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV -17.85%E -2.55%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-03 18:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.82%EV -5.80%E -5.04%K -38.67%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.06%EV -17.43%E -1.34%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV -17.85%E -2.55%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-03 18:49
Neds🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.48%EV -4.98%E -4.29%K -31.14%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.47%EV -20.61%E -1.65%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.05%EV -9.05%E -1.17%K -1.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 18:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.48%EV -4.98%E -4.29%K -31.14%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.47%EV -20.61%E -1.65%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.05%EV -9.05%E -1.17%K -1.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 18:35
LeoVegas🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.47%EV -8.26%E -7.37%K -68.82%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.51%EV -23.78%E -1.98%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.02%EV -11.98%E -1.60%K -1.84%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-03 18:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.53%EV -8.26%E -7.37%K -68.82%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.75%EV -26.96%E -2.34%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.72%EV -17.85%E -2.55%K -2.97%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-03 16:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.53%EV -8.26%E -7.37%K -68.82%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.75%EV -26.96%E -2.34%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.72%EV -17.85%E -2.55%K -2.97%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-03 16:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.53%EV -8.26%E -7.37%K -68.82%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.75%EV -26.96%E -2.34%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.72%EV -17.85%E -2.55%K -2.97%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-03 17:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 80.36%EV -10.72%E -9.83%K -119.06%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.34%EV -33.31%E -3.17%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.30%EV -9.05%E -1.17%K -1.34%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-03 18:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 79.41%EV -10.72%E -9.83%K -119.06%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.66%EV -36.48%E -3.65%K -4.05%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 11.94%EV -14.91%E -2.06%K -2.39%G +0.000%15.5%2026-09-03 18:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%177.8%2026-09-03 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%177.8%2026-09-03 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-09-03 16:55