Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Manchester City v Norwich City

Início: 2026-09-17 18:30 UTC

Final: Manchester City 5–0 Norwich City

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

50 casas de apostas (18 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Manchester City (Local)

Previsão 81.00%1.23odd justa
EV -2.79%
Vantagem -2.33%
Kelly -13.97%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.20

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
78.86%80.92%80.97%84.04%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.101.151.151.2090.91%86.97%86.96%83.33%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Norwich City (Visitante)

Previsão 6.59%15.18odd justa
EV +51.47%
Vantagem +2.24%
Kelly +2.34%
Crescimento +1.20%

pressupondo odds máximas de 23.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
4.13%6.53%6.55%8.34%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
11.0014.9815.0023.009.09%6.68%6.67%4.35%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 12.41%8.06odd justa
EV +11.69%
Vantagem +1.30%
Kelly +1.46%
Crescimento +0.171%

pressupondo odds máximas de 9.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
10.83%12.55%12.48%14.34%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
6.507.567.509.0015.38%13.22%13.33%11.11%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Manchester City (Local): 81.00%; Norwich City (Visitante): 6.59%; Empate: 12.41%. Para Norwich City (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 15.18. 15 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 23.00, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +51.47%.

Odds das casas de apostas (50 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
BetOnline.ag🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.01%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.11%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.13%EV +51.47%E +2.24%K +2.34%G +1.20%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.87%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-17 18:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.01%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.11%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.13%EV +51.47%E +2.24%K +2.34%G +1.20%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.87%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-17 18:25
Pinnacle🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 83.20%EV -5.22%E -4.47%K -30.73%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.64%EV +38.30%E +1.82%K +1.92%G +0.733%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.17%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000%2.7%2026-09-17 18:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 84.04%EV -6.03%E -5.20%K -37.72%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.13%EV +25.13%E +1.32%K +1.40%G +0.351%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.83%EV +11.69%E +1.30%K +1.46%G +0.171%2.6%2026-09-17 18:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 84.04%EV -6.03%E -5.20%K -37.72%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.13%EV +25.13%E +1.32%K +1.40%G +0.351%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.83%EV +11.69%E +1.30%K +1.46%G +0.171%2.6%2026-09-17 18:10
1xBet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.24%EV -7.65%E -6.71%K -54.68%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV +11.96%E +0.703%K +0.747%G +0.089%8.49I 11.78%NM 11.18%EV +5.36%E +0.631%K +0.715%G +0.038%5.4%2026-09-17 18:24
Coolbet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 81.50%EV -4.41%E -3.74%K -24.52%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.01%EV +5.37%E +0.336%K +0.358%G +0.019%7.70I 12.99%NM 12.49%EV -4.45%E -0.578%K -0.664%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-17 18:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.52%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.11%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.83%EV +5.37%E +0.336%K +0.358%G +0.019%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-17 18:10
Grosvenor🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.52%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.11%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.83%EV +5.37%E +0.336%K +0.358%G +0.019%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-17 18:10
Casumo🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.52%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.11%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.83%EV +5.37%E +0.336%K +0.358%G +0.019%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-17 18:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.52%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.11%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.83%EV +5.37%E +0.336%K +0.358%G +0.019%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-17 18:10
betPARX🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.52%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.11%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.83%EV +5.37%E +0.336%K +0.358%G +0.019%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-17 18:10
Unibet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.52%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.11%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.83%EV +5.37%E +0.336%K +0.358%G +0.019%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-17 18:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.52%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.11%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.83%EV +5.37%E +0.336%K +0.358%G +0.019%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-17 18:10
FanDuel🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.75%EV -7.65%E -6.71%K -54.68%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.82%EV +5.37%E +0.336%K +0.358%G +0.019%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-17 18:09
betano_uk🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.94%EV -6.84%E -5.95%K -45.63%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -1.21%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-17 18:23
Bet Victor🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.94%EV -6.84%E -5.95%K -45.63%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -1.21%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-17 18:24
Betr (AU)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.03%E -5.20%K -37.72%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -1.21%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.55%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-17 18:18
Bovada🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.63%EV -6.84%E -5.95%K -45.63%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -1.21%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.11%EV -3.83%E -0.494%K -0.567%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-17 18:19
Tipico (DE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -7.65%E -6.71%K -54.68%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -1.21%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-17 18:25
SportsBet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.95%EV -6.84%E -5.95%K -45.63%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.21%EV -1.21%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.84%EV -10.03%E -1.38%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-17 18:25
William Hill🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -5.22%E -4.47%K -30.73%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV -1.21%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -19.34%E -2.98%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-17 18:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -5.22%E -4.47%K -30.73%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV -1.21%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -19.34%E -2.98%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-17 18:25
888sport🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -5.22%E -4.47%K -30.73%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV -1.21%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -19.34%E -2.98%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-17 18:25
TABtouch🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.20%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.11%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -1.21%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-17 18:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.20%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.11%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -1.21%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-17 18:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.77%EV -6.84%E -5.95%K -45.63%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.12%EV -1.21%E -0.081%K -0.087%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -19.34%E -2.98%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-17 18:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 80.74%EV -2.79%E -2.33%K -13.97%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.68%EV -4.51%E -0.311%K -0.334%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 12.58%EV -4.45%E -0.578%K -0.664%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-17 18:25
NordicBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.22%EV -3.60%E -3.03%K -18.97%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.50%EV -4.51%E -0.311%K -0.334%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.28%EV -18.10%E -2.74%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-17 18:25
Betsson🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.22%EV -3.60%E -3.03%K -18.97%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.50%EV -4.51%E -0.311%K -0.334%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.28%EV -18.10%E -2.74%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-17 18:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.32%EV -10.08%E -9.09%K -91.68%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.23%EV -4.51%E -0.311%K -0.334%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.45%EV -10.03%E -1.38%K -1.60%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-17 18:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -5.22%E -4.47%K -30.73%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV -7.80%E -0.557%K -0.600%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-17 18:25
PlayUp🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.00%EV -4.41%E -3.74%K -24.52%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.66%EV -7.80%E -0.557%K -0.600%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.34%EV -19.34%E -2.98%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-17 18:25
BetRivers🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.21%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.11%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.55%EV -7.80%E -0.557%K -0.600%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.24%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-17 18:09
Virgin Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.34%EV -9.27%E -8.28%K -77.29%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.51%EV -7.80%E -0.557%K -0.600%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.15%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-17 18:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.34%EV -9.27%E -8.28%K -77.29%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.51%EV -7.80%E -0.557%K -0.600%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.15%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-17 18:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 81.62%EV -10.89%E -9.90%K -108.95%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.41%EV -7.80%E -0.557%K -0.600%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.97%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-17 18:10
Fliff🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.79%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.11%G +0.000%13.45I 7.43%NM 6.79%EV -11.42%E -0.849%K -0.917%G +0.000%7.35I 13.61%NM 12.42%EV -8.79%E -1.20%K -1.38%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-17 18:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.12%EV -4.41%E -3.74%K -24.52%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -14.39%E -1.11%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-17 18:25
LeoVegas🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.39%EV -6.03%E -5.20%K -37.72%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.17%EV -14.39%E -1.11%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-17 18:25
Betway🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -5.22%E -4.47%K -30.73%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV -14.39%E -1.11%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -13.13%E -1.88%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-17 18:25
BoyleSports🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.82%EV -6.84%E -5.95%K -45.63%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.06%EV -14.39%E -1.11%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV -13.13%E -1.88%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-17 18:15
Paddy Power🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 80.39%EV -10.08%E -9.09%K -91.68%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.86%EV -14.39%E -1.11%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -13.13%E -1.88%K -2.19%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-17 18:25
BetMGM🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.48%EV -6.03%E -5.20%K -37.72%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.47%EV -17.68%E -1.41%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.05%EV -3.83%E -0.494%K -0.567%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-17 18:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.37%EV -2.79%E -2.33%K -13.97%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.94%EV -20.97%E -1.75%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.70%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-17 18:20
Coral🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.37%EV -2.79%E -2.33%K -13.97%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.94%EV -20.97%E -1.75%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.70%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-17 18:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -6.03%E -5.20%K -37.72%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -20.97%E -1.75%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.68%EV -0.724%E -0.091%K -0.103%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-17 18:25
Sky Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 78.86%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.11%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.43%EV -20.97%E -1.75%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.71%EV -19.34%E -2.98%K -3.52%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-17 18:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.81%EV -6.84%E -5.95%K -45.63%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.34%EV -27.56%E -2.51%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.84%EV -3.83%E -0.494%K -0.567%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-17 18:25
theScore Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.64%EV -7.65%E -6.71%K -54.68%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.25%EV -27.56%E -2.51%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -6.93%E -0.924%K -1.07%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-17 18:25
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.20I 83.33%NM 83.03%19.50I 5.13%NM 5.11%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.86%0.4%2026-09-17 18:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.19I 84.03%NM 83.63%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.52%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.85%0.5%2026-09-17 18:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.19I 84.03%NM 83.63%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.52%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.85%0.5%2026-09-17 18:25
Matchbook◎1.19I 84.03%NM 83.25%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.95%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.79%0.9%2026-09-17 18:25