Language:English
Derby County v Lincoln City
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Derby County (Local)
Prediction 46.53%2.15fair odd
EV -4.61%
Edge -2.25%
Kelly -4.39%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.48%46.57%46.53%48.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.891.981.982.0552.91%50.52%50.51%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lincoln City (Visit)
Prediction 27.28%3.67fair odd
EV -1.79%
Edge -0.497%
Kelly -0.688%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.05%27.23%27.20%28.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.363.353.6031.75%29.74%29.85%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.19%3.82fair odd
EV -1.80%
Edge -0.479%
Kelly -0.653%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.14%26.19%26.27%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.533.503.7530.30%28.33%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Derby County (Local): 46.53%; Lincoln City (Visit): 27.28%; Draw: 26.19%. For Lincoln City (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.67. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.60, with an expected value of -1.79%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.41%EV -4.61%E -2.25%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.87%EV -3.43%E -0.968%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 26.72%EV -6.77%E -1.90%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 13:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.61%E -2.25%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.52%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -8.34%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-08 13:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.61%E -2.25%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.52%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -8.34%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-08 13:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.61%E -2.25%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.52%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -8.34%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-08 13:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.70%EV -4.61%E -2.25%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -5.88%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -9.65%E -2.80%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-08 13:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.70%EV -4.61%E -2.25%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -5.88%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -9.65%E -2.80%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-08 13:04 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -4.61%E -2.25%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.25%E -2.13%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -8.34%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-08 13:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.69%EV -6.01%E -2.97%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.55%EV -8.61%E -2.57%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -9.65%E -2.80%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-08 13:34 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.69%EV -6.01%E -2.97%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.55%EV -8.61%E -2.57%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -9.65%E -2.80%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-08 13:35 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.94%E -3.47%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -1.79%E -0.497%K -0.688%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -5.72%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.94%E -3.47%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -1.79%E -0.497%K -0.688%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -5.72%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-08 13:49 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.35%EV -6.94%E -3.47%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -4.52%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -3.11%E -0.839%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-08 06:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -6.94%E -3.47%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -7.25%E -2.13%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -1.80%E -0.479%K -0.653%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-08 06:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -6.94%E -3.47%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.25%E -2.13%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -3.11%E -0.839%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-08 13:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -6.94%E -3.47%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.97%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -8.34%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-08 13:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -6.94%E -3.47%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -7.25%E -2.13%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -6.94%E -3.47%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -7.25%E -2.13%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -6.94%E -3.47%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -7.25%E -2.13%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -6.94%E -3.47%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -7.25%E -2.13%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 46.86%EV -7.40%E -3.72%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.49%EV -3.97%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -8.34%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-08 13:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 45.48%EV -7.40%E -3.72%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.28%EV -12.70%E -3.97%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.23%EV -9.65%E -2.80%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 45.48%EV -7.40%E -3.72%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.28%EV -12.70%E -3.97%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.23%EV -9.65%E -2.80%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.23%EV -7.87%E -3.97%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -7.25%E -2.13%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -3.11%E -0.839%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-08 13:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.68%EV -7.87%E -3.97%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.01%EV -9.97%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.32%EV -4.41%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.64%EV -7.87%E -3.97%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -9.97%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -12.27%E -3.66%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-08 13:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.83%EV -8.33%E -4.23%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.54%EV -8.61%E -2.57%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -5.72%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-08 13:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.80%EV -8.33%E -4.23%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -9.97%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -4.41%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.80%EV -8.33%E -4.23%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -9.97%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -4.41%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.80%EV -8.33%E -4.23%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -9.97%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -4.41%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.80%EV -8.33%E -4.23%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -9.97%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -4.41%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.80%EV -8.33%E -4.23%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -9.97%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -4.41%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.80%EV -8.33%E -4.23%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -9.97%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -4.41%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.80%EV -8.33%E -4.23%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -9.97%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -4.41%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.80%EV -8.33%E -4.23%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -9.97%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -4.41%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.80%EV -8.33%E -4.23%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -9.97%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -4.41%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.66%EV -8.80%E -4.49%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.54%EV -3.97%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 25.80%EV -5.20%E -1.44%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-08 13:53 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.43%EV -8.80%E -4.49%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -9.97%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -8.34%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -9.26%E -4.75%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -7.25%E -2.13%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -5.72%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-08 10:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -9.26%E -4.75%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -7.25%E -2.13%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -5.72%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-08 13:34 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -9.26%E -4.75%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -7.25%E -2.13%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -7.03%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-08 13:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.83%EV -9.26%E -4.75%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -9.97%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-08 13:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.11%EV -9.73%E -5.01%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -12.70%E -3.97%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.93%EV -9.65%E -2.80%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-08 13:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.60%EV -10.19%E -5.28%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -1.79%E -0.497%K -0.688%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -3.11%E -0.839%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-08 13:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -11.12%E -5.82%K -12.22%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -9.97%E -3.02%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -8.34%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-08 13:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.33%EV -11.12%E -5.82%K -12.22%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.65%EV -12.70%E -3.97%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.02%EV -10.96%E -3.22%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-08-08 13:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 46.63%EV -11.59%E -6.10%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.69%EV -12.70%E -3.97%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.68%EV -9.65%E -2.80%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-08 13:04 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 46.60%EV -11.59%E -6.10%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.11%EV -14.07%E -4.47%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -8.34%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 46.47%EV -11.59%E -6.10%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.17%EV -11.34%E -3.49%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.36%EV -12.27%E -3.66%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-08-08 13:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 46.73%EV -12.06%E -6.38%K -13.55%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.04%EV -14.07%E -4.47%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -8.34%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.72% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.45% | 0.7% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.55% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.10% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.36% | 1.1% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.55% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.10% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.36% | 1.1% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.55% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.10% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.36% | 1.1% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
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