The School of OddsDerby County v Lincoln City
Head to Head
Option 1: Derby County (Local)
Odds
1.5365.36%Min
1.5962.85%Mean
1.6062.50%Median
1.6261.73%Max
Consensus probabilities
56.21%1.779Min
60.81%1.644Max
57.86%1.728Mean
57.20%1.748Median
57.20%1.748IQM
58.10%1.721Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.62 under the IQM model: 57.20%
EV -7.33%Edge -4.53%Kelly -11.83%Growth +0.000%
Option 2: Lincoln City (Visit)
Odds
4.3323.09%Min
4.5721.89%Mean
4.4022.73%Median
5.3018.87%Max
Consensus probabilities
17.55%5.697Min
21.03%4.755Max
19.74%5.066Mean
20.25%4.939Median
20.25%4.939IQM
19.56%5.112Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 5.30 under the IQM model: 20.25%
EV +7.30%Edge +1.38%Kelly +1.70%Growth +0.124%
Option 3: Draw
Odds
3.9525.32%Min
4.0324.81%Mean
3.9525.32%Median
4.3023.26%Max
Consensus probabilities
21.64%4.622Min
22.90%4.366Max
22.40%4.464Mean
22.55%4.434Median
22.55%4.434IQM
22.34%4.477Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 4.30 under the IQM model: 22.55%
EV -3.02%Edge -0.702%Kelly -0.915%Growth +0.000%
Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Derby County (Local) | Lincoln City (Visit) ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 1.60I 62.50% NM 60.13%EV -8.48% E -5.30% K -14.13% G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.49%EV +11.35% E +2.06% K +2.52% G +0.286% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 22.37%EV -3.02% E -0.702% K -0.915% G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-26 11:49 |
| FanDuel | 1.53I 65.36% NM 60.81%EV -12.48% E -8.16% K -23.55% G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87% NM 17.55%EV +7.30% E +1.38% K +1.70% G +0.124% | 4.30I 23.26% NM 21.64%EV -3.02% E -0.702% K -0.915% G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-26 14:39 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.58I 63.29% NM 59.63%EV -9.62% E -6.09% K -16.59% G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05% NM 17.94%EV +6.29% E +1.20% K +1.48% G +0.093% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.43%EV -5.27% E -1.26% K -1.65% G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-30 02:59 |
| 1xBet | 1.59I 62.89% NM 58.91%EV -9.05% E -5.69% K -15.34% G +0.000% | 5.06I 19.76% NM 18.51%EV +2.44% E +0.483% K +0.602% G +0.015% | 4.15I 24.10% NM 22.57%EV -6.40% E -1.54% K -2.03% G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-26 18:39 |
| SportsBet | 1.57I 63.69% NM 59.25%EV -10.19% E -6.49% K -17.89% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.60%EV +1.23% E +0.246% K +0.307% G +0.004% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.15%EV -5.27% E -1.26% K -1.65% G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-26 11:49 |
| Paddy Power | 1.57I 63.69% NM 59.25%EV -10.19% E -6.49% K -17.89% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.60%EV +1.23% E +0.246% K +0.307% G +0.004% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.15%EV -5.27% E -1.26% K -1.65% G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-26 11:48 |
| Sky Bet | 1.57I 63.69% NM 59.25%EV -10.19% E -6.49% K -17.89% G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.60%EV +1.23% E +0.246% K +0.307% G +0.004% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.15%EV -5.27% E -1.26% K -1.65% G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-26 14:29 |
| LeoVegas | 1.57I 63.69% NM 58.15%EV -10.19% E -6.49% K -17.89% G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74% NM 19.85%EV -6.87% E -1.49% K -1.91% G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10% NM 22.00%EV -6.40% E -1.54% K -2.03% G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-02 10:20 |
| BoyleSports | 1.55I 64.52% NM 57.74%EV -11.34% E -7.32% K -20.62% G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22% NM 19.89%EV -8.89% E -1.98% K -2.54% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 22.37%EV -9.79% E -2.45% K -3.26% G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-06-27 15:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.50I 66.67% NM 56.76%EV -14.20% E -9.47% K -28.40% G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22% NM 18.92%EV -8.89% E -1.98% K -2.54% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 24.32%EV -21.06% E -6.02% K -8.42% G +0.000% | 17.5% | 2026-06-27 19:39 |
| BetRivers | 1.60I 62.50% NM 56.54%EV -8.48% E -5.30% K -14.13% G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73% NM 20.56%EV -10.92% E -2.48% K -3.21% G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32% NM 22.90%EV -10.91% E -2.76% K -3.70% G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-06-30 05:19 |
| betPARX | 1.60I 62.50% NM 56.54%EV -8.48% E -5.30% K -14.13% G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73% NM 20.56%EV -10.92% E -2.48% K -3.21% G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32% NM 22.90%EV -10.91% E -2.76% K -3.70% G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-06-30 08:09 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.60I 62.50% NM 56.54%EV -8.48% E -5.30% K -14.13% G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73% NM 20.56%EV -10.92% E -2.48% K -3.21% G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32% NM 22.90%EV -10.91% E -2.76% K -3.70% G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-06-30 08:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.60I 62.50% NM 56.54%EV -8.48% E -5.30% K -14.13% G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73% NM 20.56%EV -10.92% E -2.48% K -3.21% G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32% NM 22.90%EV -10.91% E -2.76% K -3.70% G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-06-30 08:30 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.60I 62.50% NM 56.54%EV -8.48% E -5.30% K -14.13% G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73% NM 20.56%EV -10.92% E -2.48% K -3.21% G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32% NM 22.90%EV -10.91% E -2.76% K -3.70% G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-06-30 08:29 |
| Grosvenor | 1.60I 62.50% NM 56.54%EV -8.48% E -5.30% K -14.13% G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73% NM 20.56%EV -10.92% E -2.48% K -3.21% G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32% NM 22.90%EV -10.91% E -2.76% K -3.70% G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-06-30 08:29 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.60I 62.50% NM 56.54%EV -8.48% E -5.30% K -14.13% G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73% NM 20.56%EV -10.92% E -2.48% K -3.21% G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32% NM 22.90%EV -10.91% E -2.76% K -3.70% G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-06-30 08:29 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.60I 62.50% NM 56.54%EV -8.48% E -5.30% K -14.13% G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73% NM 20.56%EV -10.92% E -2.48% K -3.21% G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32% NM 22.90%EV -10.91% E -2.76% K -3.70% G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-06-30 08:29 |
| Casumo | 1.60I 62.50% NM 56.54%EV -8.48% E -5.30% K -14.13% G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73% NM 20.56%EV -10.92% E -2.48% K -3.21% G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32% NM 22.90%EV -10.91% E -2.76% K -3.70% G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-06-30 08:29 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.60I 62.50% NM 56.54%EV -8.48% E -5.30% K -14.13% G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73% NM 20.56%EV -10.92% E -2.48% K -3.21% G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32% NM 22.90%EV -10.91% E -2.76% K -3.70% G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-06-30 08:29 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.60I 62.50% NM 56.54%EV -8.48% E -5.30% K -14.13% G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73% NM 20.56%EV -10.92% E -2.48% K -3.21% G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32% NM 22.90%EV -10.91% E -2.76% K -3.70% G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-06-30 08:29 |
| TABtouch | 1.60I 62.50% NM 56.54%EV -8.48% E -5.30% K -14.13% G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73% NM 20.56%EV -10.92% E -2.48% K -3.21% G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32% NM 22.90%EV -10.91% E -2.76% K -3.70% G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-06-30 08:39 |
| Unibet | 1.60I 62.50% NM 56.54%EV -8.48% E -5.30% K -14.13% G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73% NM 20.56%EV -10.92% E -2.48% K -3.21% G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32% NM 22.90%EV -10.91% E -2.76% K -3.70% G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-06-30 08:39 |
| William Hill | 1.62I 61.73% NM 56.21%EV -7.33% E -4.53% K -11.83% G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09% NM 21.03%EV -12.34% E -2.85% K -3.70% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 22.76%EV -9.79% E -2.45% K -3.26% G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-06-30 14:00 |
| 888sport | 1.61I 62.11% NM 56.36%EV -7.91% E -4.91% K -12.96% G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09% NM 20.96%EV -12.34% E -2.85% K -3.70% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 22.68%EV -9.79% E -2.45% K -3.26% G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-06-30 14:09 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.61I 62.11% NM 56.36%EV -7.91% E -4.91% K -12.96% G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09% NM 20.96%EV -12.34% E -2.85% K -3.70% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 22.68%EV -9.79% E -2.45% K -3.26% G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-06-30 14:09 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.61I 62.11% NM 56.36%EV -7.91% E -4.91% K -12.96% G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09% NM 20.96%EV -12.34% E -2.85% K -3.70% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 22.68%EV -9.79% E -2.45% K -3.26% G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-06-30 14:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Derby County (Local) | Lincoln City (Visit) | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.04I 96.15% | 1.04I 96.15% | 1.02I 98.04% | 190.3% | 2026-06-26 15:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.04I 96.15% | 1.04I 96.15% | 1.02I 98.04% | 190.3% | 2026-06-26 15:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.04I 96.15% | 1.04I 96.15% | 1.02I 98.04% | 190.3% | 2026-06-26 15:39 |