La escuela de los momios

Derby County v Lincoln City

2026-08-08 14:00 UTC — EFL Cup

Resultado del partido

46 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Derby County (Local)

Predicción 47.13%2.12momio equitativo
EV +0.858%
Ventaja +0.401%
Kelly +0.752%
Crecimiento +0.006%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.14

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.38%46.91%47.08%48.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.821.941.952.1454.95%51.55%51.28%46.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Lincoln City (Visitante)

Predicción 27.81%3.60momio equitativo
EV -4.05%
Ventaja -1.17%
Kelly -1.65%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.92%28.08%27.80%30.95%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.903.273.253.4534.48%30.59%30.77%28.99%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 25.06%3.99momio equitativo
EV +0.482%
Ventaja +0.120%
Kelly +0.160%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.01

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.34%25.01%25.13%26.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.353.683.704.0129.85%27.21%27.03%24.94%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (46 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
LowVig.ag2.14I 46.73%NM 42.38%EV +0.858%E +0.401%K +0.752%G +0.006%2.93I 34.13%NM 30.95%EV -18.51%E -6.32%K -9.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -14.80%E -4.35%K -6.17%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-23 11:30
BetOnline.ag2.14I 46.73%NM 42.38%EV +0.858%E +0.401%K +0.752%G +0.006%2.93I 34.13%NM 30.95%EV -18.51%E -6.32%K -9.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -14.80%E -4.35%K -6.17%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-23 11:30
Coral2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -3.38%E -1.65%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.44%E -1.60%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -9.79%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-23 11:30
Ladbrokes (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -3.38%E -1.65%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.44%E -1.60%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -9.79%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-23 11:35
BetMGM2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -3.38%E -1.65%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.44%E -1.60%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -9.79%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-23 11:35
Ladbrokes (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.84%EV -3.38%E -1.65%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -6.83%E -2.04%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -9.79%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-23 11:35
Neds2.05I 48.78%NM 45.84%EV -3.38%E -1.65%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -6.83%E -2.04%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -9.79%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-23 11:35
Betr (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -5.74%E -2.87%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -5.44%E -1.60%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -6.03%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-23 05:59
FanDuel2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -5.74%E -2.87%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.44%E -1.60%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -7.29%E -1.97%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-23 06:00
SportsBet1.99I 50.25%NM 47.29%EV -6.21%E -3.12%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -4.05%E -1.17%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.43%EV -7.29%E -1.97%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-23 05:59
Betsson1.98I 50.51%NM 46.54%EV -6.68%E -3.38%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -6.83%E -2.04%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.96%EV -11.04%E -3.11%K -4.33%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-25 16:05
NordicBet1.98I 50.51%NM 46.54%EV -6.68%E -3.38%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -6.83%E -2.04%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.96%EV -11.04%E -3.11%K -4.33%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-25 16:05
Unibet (UK)1.98I 50.51%NM 46.51%EV -6.68%E -3.38%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -8.22%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -9.79%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-23 11:30
LeoVegas1.98I 50.51%NM 46.43%EV -6.68%E -3.38%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -11.00%E -3.44%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -7.29%E -1.97%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-23 11:35
Pinnacle1.97I 50.76%NM 47.51%EV -7.15%E -3.63%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.16%EV -10.72%E -3.34%K -4.85%G +0.000%4.01I 24.94%NM 23.34%EV +0.482%E +0.120%K +0.160%G +0.001%6.9%2026-07-21 19:20
Paddy Power1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -8.10%E -4.15%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -5.44%E -1.60%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -7.29%E -1.97%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-23 02:50
Sky Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -8.10%E -4.15%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -5.44%E -1.60%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -7.29%E -1.97%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-23 06:00
William Hill1.95I 51.28%NM 47.37%EV -8.10%E -4.15%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -8.22%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -6.03%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-23 02:49
Bovada1.95I 51.28%NM 47.17%EV -8.10%E -4.15%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -6.03%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-23 11:33
888sport1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -8.10%E -4.15%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.21%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -7.29%E -1.97%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-23 02:50
888sport (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -8.10%E -4.15%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.21%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -7.29%E -1.97%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-23 02:50
Mr Green (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -8.10%E -4.15%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.21%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -7.29%E -1.97%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-23 02:49
Bet Victor1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -8.10%E -4.15%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -5.44%E -1.60%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -12.30%E -3.51%K -4.92%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-25 09:05
betano_uk1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -8.10%E -4.15%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -5.44%E -1.60%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -12.30%E -3.51%K -4.92%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-25 09:04
1xBet1.94I 51.55%NM 48.27%EV -8.57%E -4.42%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.46%EV -5.16%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.26%EV -3.28%E -0.849%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-23 06:00
Marathon Bet1.92I 52.08%NM 48.57%EV -9.51%E -4.95%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.27%EV -4.88%E -1.43%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.16%EV -3.28%E -0.849%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-23 05:59
Betway1.91I 52.36%NM 46.74%EV -9.98%E -5.23%K -10.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.76%EV -16.56%E -5.52%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.50%EV -4.78%E -1.26%K -1.71%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-21 19:20
Tipico (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.57%EV -10.45%E -5.50%K -11.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -5.44%E -1.60%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -4.78%E -1.26%K -1.71%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-21 14:29
Winamax (DE)1.88I 53.19%NM 46.44%EV -11.40%E -6.06%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.62%EV -15.17%E -4.97%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.94%EV -12.30%E -3.51%K -4.92%G +0.000%14.5%2026-07-23 11:30
BetRivers1.87I 53.48%NM 48.21%EV -11.87%E -6.35%K -13.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.04%EV -6.03%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-21 19:20
betPARX1.87I 53.48%NM 48.21%EV -11.87%E -6.35%K -13.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.04%EV -6.03%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-21 19:50
Unibet (SE)1.87I 53.48%NM 48.21%EV -11.87%E -6.35%K -13.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.04%EV -6.03%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-21 19:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.87I 53.48%NM 48.21%EV -11.87%E -6.35%K -13.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.04%EV -6.03%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-21 19:20
Unibet (NL)1.87I 53.48%NM 48.21%EV -11.87%E -6.35%K -13.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.04%EV -6.03%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-21 19:20
Grosvenor1.87I 53.48%NM 48.21%EV -11.87%E -6.35%K -13.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.04%EV -6.03%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-21 19:20
LiveScore Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 48.21%EV -11.87%E -6.35%K -13.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.04%EV -6.03%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-21 19:20
Virgin Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 48.21%EV -11.87%E -6.35%K -13.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.04%EV -6.03%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-21 19:20
Casumo1.87I 53.48%NM 48.21%EV -11.87%E -6.35%K -13.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.04%EV -6.03%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-21 19:20
ATG (SE)1.87I 53.48%NM 48.21%EV -11.87%E -6.35%K -13.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.04%EV -6.03%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-21 19:50
Svenska Spel1.87I 53.48%NM 48.21%EV -11.87%E -6.35%K -13.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.04%EV -6.03%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-21 19:50
TABtouch1.87I 53.48%NM 48.21%EV -11.87%E -6.35%K -13.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.04%EV -6.03%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-21 19:20
Unibet1.87I 53.48%NM 48.21%EV -11.87%E -6.35%K -13.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.04%EV -6.03%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-21 19:20
PMU (FR)1.87I 53.48%NM 48.21%EV -11.87%E -6.35%K -13.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -9.61%E -2.96%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.04%EV -6.03%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-21 19:20
BoyleSports1.87I 53.48%NM 47.60%EV -11.87%E -6.35%K -13.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -8.22%E -2.49%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.43%EV -12.30%E -3.51%K -4.92%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-22 13:34
NetBet (FR)1.85I 54.05%NM 47.22%EV -12.81%E -6.92%K -15.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.18%EV -13.78%E -4.45%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.61%EV -11.04%E -3.11%K -4.33%G +0.000%14.5%2026-07-25 07:00
Winamax (FR)1.82I 54.95%NM 46.06%EV -14.22%E -7.82%K -17.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 28.91%EV -19.34%E -6.67%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.03%EV -16.06%E -4.79%K -6.83%G +0.000%19.3%2026-07-23 11:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (3)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.63%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%7.7%2026-07-26 02:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.63%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%7.7%2026-07-25 16:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.63%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%7.7%2026-07-25 22:30