The School of Odds

Colchester United v Southampton

2026-08-08 16:00 UTC — EFL Cup

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Head to Head

44 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Colchester United (Local)

Prediction 11.35%8.81fair odd
EV +2.14%
Edge +0.238%
Kelly +0.268%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 9.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.23%11.62%11.34%14.09%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
6.007.578.009.0017%13%13%11%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Southampton (Visit)

Prediction 70.53%1.42fair odd
EV -4.78%
Edge -3.54%
Kelly -13.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.89%70.30%70.51%72.50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.231.321.331.3581%76%75%74%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 18.12%5.52fair odd
EV -0.350%
Edge -0.064%
Kelly -0.078%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.82%18.08%18.15%19.53%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.504.934.955.5022%20%20%18%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betr (AU)9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV +2.14%E +0.238%K +0.268%G +0.006%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.53%EV -6.90%E -5.22%K -21.55%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -4.88%E -0.929%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-22 03:35
Marathon Bet9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV +2.14%E +0.238%K +0.268%G +0.006%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.71%EV -8.31%E -6.39%K -27.69%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -5.79%E -1.11%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 20:00
SportsBet9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV +2.14%E +0.238%K +0.268%G +0.006%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.50%EV -9.72%E -7.59%K -34.71%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.19%EV -2.16%E -0.400%K -0.491%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-21 23:20
Paddy Power9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV +2.14%E +0.238%K +0.268%G +0.006%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.36%EV -9.01%E -6.99%K -31.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -9.41%E -1.88%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-21 23:19
Sky Bet9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV +2.14%E +0.238%K +0.268%G +0.006%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.36%EV -9.01%E -6.99%K -31.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -9.41%E -1.88%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-21 23:20
1xBet8.90I 11.24%NM 10.52%EV +1.01%E +0.113%K +0.127%G +0.001%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.47%EV -7.60%E -5.80%K -24.52%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01%EV -5.79%E -1.11%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-22 19:59
Coral8.50I 11.76%NM 11.22%EV -3.53%E -0.416%K -0.471%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.62%EV -4.78%E -3.54%K -13.66%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.16%EV -4.88%E -0.929%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-22 19:59
BetMGM8.50I 11.76%NM 11.22%EV -3.53%E -0.416%K -0.471%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.62%EV -4.78%E -3.54%K -13.66%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.16%EV -4.88%E -0.929%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-22 19:59
Ladbrokes (UK)8.50I 11.76%NM 11.12%EV -3.53%E -0.416%K -0.471%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.99%EV -4.78%E -3.54%K -13.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -9.41%E -1.88%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-22 19:59
William Hill8.50I 11.76%NM 11.03%EV -3.53%E -0.416%K -0.471%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.44%EV -4.78%E -3.54%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -13.03%E -2.72%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-22 20:59
FanDuel8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV -3.53%E -0.416%K -0.471%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.29%EV -9.72%E -7.59%K -34.71%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -0.350%E -0.064%K -0.078%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-21 23:19
Tipico (DE)8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -3.53%E -0.416%K -0.471%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -8.31%E -6.39%K -27.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -9.41%E -1.88%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-24 22:15
Pinnacle8.37I 11.95%NM 11.08%EV -5.01%E -0.599%K -0.680%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.33%EV -8.31%E -6.39%K -27.69%G +0.000%5.27I 18.98%NM 17.59%EV -4.52%E -0.857%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-22 20:00
Ladbrokes (AU)8.25I 12.12%NM 11.41%EV -6.37%E -0.772%K -0.879%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.75%EV -4.78%E -3.54%K -13.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -9.41%E -1.88%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-22 19:59
Neds8.25I 12.12%NM 11.41%EV -6.37%E -0.772%K -0.879%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.75%EV -4.78%E -3.54%K -13.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -9.41%E -1.88%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-22 19:59
Bovada8.25I 12.12%NM 11.13%EV -6.37%E -0.772%K -0.879%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.20%EV -9.01%E -6.99%K -31.08%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.66%EV -5.79%E -1.11%K -1.38%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-23 14:32
888sport8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -9.21%E -1.15%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.19%E -4.66%K -18.76%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -13.03%E -2.72%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 19:20
888sport (SE)8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -9.21%E -1.15%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.19%E -4.66%K -18.76%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -13.03%E -2.72%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 19:50
Mr Green (SE)8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -9.21%E -1.15%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.19%E -4.66%K -18.76%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -13.03%E -2.72%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 19:50
betano_uk8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -9.21%E -1.15%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -8.31%E -6.39%K -27.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -9.41%E -1.88%K -2.35%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-25 09:04
Bet Victor8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -9.21%E -1.15%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -8.31%E -6.39%K -27.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -9.41%E -1.88%K -2.35%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-25 09:05
BoyleSports8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -9.21%E -1.15%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 70.46%EV -9.01%E -6.99%K -31.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -9.41%E -1.88%K -2.35%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-22 00:34
Betway8.00I 12.50%NM 11.21%EV -9.21%E -1.15%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 71.72%EV -11.83%E -9.47%K -47.34%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.08%EV -4.88%E -0.929%K -1.15%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-23 14:35
LeoVegas7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -14.88%E -1.98%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.78%EV -6.19%E -4.66%K -18.76%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.85%EV -5.79%E -1.11%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-25 07:05
Unibet (UK)7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -14.88%E -1.98%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.19%E -4.66%K -18.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -9.41%E -1.88%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 22:40
NetBet (FR)7.50I 13.33%NM 11.63%EV -14.88%E -1.98%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 70.92%EV -13.24%E -10.77%K -57.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.45%EV -9.41%E -1.88%K -2.35%G +0.000%14.6%2026-07-25 09:05
LowVig.ag6.70I 14.93%NM 13.37%EV -23.96%E -3.58%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 68.36%EV -7.60%E -5.80%K -24.52%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.28%EV -11.22%E -2.29%K -2.88%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-22 19:59
BetOnline.ag6.70I 14.93%NM 13.37%EV -23.96%E -3.58%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 68.36%EV -7.60%E -5.80%K -24.52%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.28%EV -11.22%E -2.29%K -2.88%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-22 19:59
BetRivers6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -26.23%E -4.04%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -4.78%E -3.54%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -14.84%E -3.16%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 05:19
betPARX6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -26.23%E -4.04%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -4.78%E -3.54%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -14.84%E -3.16%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:09
Unibet (SE)6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -26.23%E -4.04%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -4.78%E -3.54%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -14.84%E -3.16%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:20
LeoVegas (SE)6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -26.23%E -4.04%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -4.78%E -3.54%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -14.84%E -3.16%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:30
Unibet (NL)6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -26.23%E -4.04%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -4.78%E -3.54%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -14.84%E -3.16%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:29
Grosvenor6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -26.23%E -4.04%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -4.78%E -3.54%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -14.84%E -3.16%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:29
LiveScore Bet6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -26.23%E -4.04%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -4.78%E -3.54%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -14.84%E -3.16%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:29
Virgin Bet6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -26.23%E -4.04%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -4.78%E -3.54%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -14.84%E -3.16%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:29
Casumo6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -26.23%E -4.04%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -4.78%E -3.54%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -14.84%E -3.16%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:29
ATG (SE)6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -26.23%E -4.04%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -4.78%E -3.54%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -14.84%E -3.16%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:29
Svenska Spel6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -26.23%E -4.04%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -4.78%E -3.54%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -14.84%E -3.16%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:29
TABtouch6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -26.23%E -4.04%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -4.78%E -3.54%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -14.84%E -3.16%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:39
Unibet6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -26.23%E -4.04%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -4.78%E -3.54%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -14.84%E -3.16%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:39
PMU (FR)6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -26.23%E -4.04%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -4.78%E -3.54%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -14.84%E -3.16%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-16 14:05
Winamax (DE)6.25I 16.00%NM 13.92%EV -29.07%E -4.65%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 67.96%EV -9.72%E -7.59%K -34.71%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.12%EV -13.03%E -2.72%K -3.43%G +0.000%15.0%2026-07-22 15:39
Winamax (FR)6.00I 16.67%NM 14.09%EV -31.91%E -5.32%K -6.38%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 67.11%EV -11.13%E -8.83%K -42.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.79%EV -18.47%E -4.10%K -5.28%G +0.000%18.3%2026-07-22 15:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.19I 84.03%NM 47.09%1.33I 75.19%NM 42.13%5.20I 19.23%NM 10.78%78.5%2026-07-25 12:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.19I 84.03%NM 47.09%1.33I 75.19%NM 42.13%5.20I 19.23%NM 10.78%78.5%2026-07-25 12:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.19I 84.03%NM 33.48%1.33I 75.19%NM 29.96%1.09I 91.74%NM 36.56%151.0%2026-07-25 16:00