La escuela de los momios

Colchester United v Southampton

2026-08-08 16:00 UTC — EFL Cup

Resultado del partido

44 corredores (13 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Colchester United (Local)

Predicción 11.35%8.81momio equitativo
EV +2.15%
Ventaja +0.239%
Kelly +0.269%
Crecimiento +0.006%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 9.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
10.21%11.57%11.34%14.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
6.007.588.009.0016.67%13.19%12.50%11.11%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Southampton (Visitante)

Predicción 70.53%1.42momio equitativo
EV -4.79%
Ventaja -3.55%
Kelly -13.69%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
66.89%70.29%70.51%72.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.231.321.331.3581.30%75.68%75.19%74.07%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 18.12%5.52momio equitativo
EV -0.315%
Ventaja -0.057%
Kelly -0.070%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.82%18.13%18.15%19.53%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.504.934.905.5022.22%20.29%20.41%18.18%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (44 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Betr (AU)9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV +2.15%E +0.239%K +0.269%G +0.006%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.53%EV -6.91%E -5.23%K -21.58%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -4.85%E -0.923%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-22 03:35
Marathon Bet9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV +2.15%E +0.239%K +0.269%G +0.006%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.71%EV -8.32%E -6.40%K -27.72%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -5.75%E -1.11%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 20:00
SportsBet9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV +2.15%E +0.239%K +0.269%G +0.006%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.50%EV -9.73%E -7.60%K -34.74%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.19%EV -2.13%E -0.394%K -0.484%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-21 23:20
Paddy Power9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV +2.15%E +0.239%K +0.269%G +0.006%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.36%EV -9.02%E -6.99%K -31.11%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -9.38%E -1.88%K -2.34%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-21 23:19
Sky Bet9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV +2.15%E +0.239%K +0.269%G +0.006%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.36%EV -9.02%E -6.99%K -31.11%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -9.38%E -1.88%K -2.34%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-21 23:20
Tipico (DE)9.00I 11.11%NM 10.21%EV +2.15%E +0.239%K +0.269%G +0.006%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.66%EV -8.32%E -6.40%K -27.72%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.14%EV -13.00%E -2.71%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-26 16:15
1xBet8.90I 11.24%NM 10.52%EV +1.02%E +0.114%K +0.129%G +0.001%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.47%EV -7.61%E -5.81%K -24.55%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.01%EV -5.75%E -1.11%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-22 19:59
Coral8.50I 11.76%NM 11.22%EV -3.52%E -0.414%K -0.470%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.62%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.69%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.16%EV -4.85%E -0.923%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-22 19:59
BetMGM8.50I 11.76%NM 11.22%EV -3.52%E -0.414%K -0.470%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.62%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.69%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.16%EV -4.85%E -0.923%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-22 19:59
Ladbrokes (UK)8.50I 11.76%NM 11.12%EV -3.52%E -0.414%K -0.470%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.99%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -9.38%E -1.88%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-22 19:59
William Hill8.50I 11.76%NM 11.03%EV -3.52%E -0.414%K -0.470%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.44%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.69%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -13.00%E -2.71%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-22 20:59
FanDuel8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV -3.52%E -0.414%K -0.470%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.29%EV -9.73%E -7.60%K -34.74%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -0.315%E -0.057%K -0.070%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-21 23:19
Pinnacle8.37I 11.95%NM 11.08%EV -5.00%E -0.597%K -0.678%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.33%EV -8.32%E -6.40%K -27.72%G +0.000%5.27I 18.98%NM 17.59%EV -4.48%E -0.851%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-22 20:00
Ladbrokes (AU)8.25I 12.12%NM 11.41%EV -6.36%E -0.771%K -0.877%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.75%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -9.38%E -1.88%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-22 19:59
Neds8.25I 12.12%NM 11.41%EV -6.36%E -0.771%K -0.877%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.75%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -9.38%E -1.88%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-22 19:59
Bovada8.25I 12.12%NM 11.13%EV -6.36%E -0.771%K -0.877%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.20%EV -9.02%E -6.99%K -31.11%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.66%EV -5.75%E -1.11%K -1.37%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-23 14:32
888sport8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -9.20%E -1.15%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.79%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -13.00%E -2.71%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 19:20
888sport (SE)8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -9.20%E -1.15%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.79%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -13.00%E -2.71%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 19:50
Mr Green (SE)8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -9.20%E -1.15%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.79%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -13.00%E -2.71%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 19:50
betano_uk8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -9.20%E -1.15%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -8.32%E -6.40%K -27.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -9.38%E -1.88%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-25 09:04
Bet Victor8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -9.20%E -1.15%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -8.32%E -6.40%K -27.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -9.38%E -1.88%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-25 09:05
BoyleSports8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -9.20%E -1.15%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 70.46%EV -9.02%E -6.99%K -31.11%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -9.38%E -1.88%K -2.34%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-22 00:34
Betway8.00I 12.50%NM 11.21%EV -9.20%E -1.15%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 71.72%EV -11.84%E -9.47%K -47.37%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.08%EV -4.85%E -0.923%K -1.14%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-23 14:35
LeoVegas7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -14.87%E -1.98%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.78%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.79%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.85%EV -5.75%E -1.11%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-25 07:05
Unibet (UK)7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -14.87%E -1.98%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -9.38%E -1.88%K -2.34%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 22:40
NetBet (FR)7.50I 13.33%NM 11.63%EV -14.87%E -1.98%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 70.92%EV -13.25%E -10.78%K -57.63%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.45%EV -9.38%E -1.88%K -2.34%G +0.000%14.6%2026-07-25 09:05
LowVig.ag6.70I 14.93%NM 13.37%EV -23.95%E -3.58%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 68.36%EV -7.61%E -5.81%K -24.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.28%EV -11.19%E -2.28%K -2.87%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-22 19:59
BetOnline.ag6.70I 14.93%NM 13.37%EV -23.95%E -3.58%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 68.36%EV -7.61%E -5.81%K -24.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.28%EV -11.19%E -2.28%K -2.87%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-22 19:59
BetRivers6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -26.22%E -4.03%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.69%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -14.81%E -3.15%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 05:19
betPARX6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -26.22%E -4.03%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.69%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -14.81%E -3.15%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:09
Unibet (SE)6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -26.22%E -4.03%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.69%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -14.81%E -3.15%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:20
LeoVegas (SE)6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -26.22%E -4.03%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.69%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -14.81%E -3.15%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:30
Unibet (NL)6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -26.22%E -4.03%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.69%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -14.81%E -3.15%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:29
Grosvenor6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -26.22%E -4.03%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.69%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -14.81%E -3.15%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:29
LiveScore Bet6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -26.22%E -4.03%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.69%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -14.81%E -3.15%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:29
Virgin Bet6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -26.22%E -4.03%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.69%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -14.81%E -3.15%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:29
Casumo6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -26.22%E -4.03%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.69%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -14.81%E -3.15%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:29
ATG (SE)6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -26.22%E -4.03%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.69%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -14.81%E -3.15%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:29
Svenska Spel6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -26.22%E -4.03%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.69%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -14.81%E -3.15%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:29
TABtouch6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -26.22%E -4.03%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.69%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -14.81%E -3.15%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:39
Unibet6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -26.22%E -4.03%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.69%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -14.81%E -3.15%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-30 08:39
PMU (FR)6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -26.22%E -4.03%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.89%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.69%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -14.81%E -3.15%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-16 14:05
Winamax (DE)6.25I 16.00%NM 13.92%EV -29.06%E -4.65%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 67.96%EV -9.73%E -7.60%K -34.74%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.12%EV -13.00%E -2.71%K -3.42%G +0.000%15.0%2026-07-22 15:39
Winamax (FR)6.00I 16.67%NM 14.09%EV -31.90%E -5.32%K -6.38%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 67.11%EV -11.14%E -8.84%K -42.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.79%EV -18.44%E -4.10%K -5.27%G +0.000%18.3%2026-07-22 15:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (3)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.19I 84.03%NM 47.09%1.33I 75.19%NM 42.13%5.20I 19.23%NM 10.78%78.5%2026-07-26 07:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.19I 84.03%NM 47.09%1.33I 75.19%NM 42.13%5.20I 19.23%NM 10.78%78.5%2026-07-26 07:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.19I 84.03%NM 47.09%1.33I 75.19%NM 42.13%5.20I 19.23%NM 10.78%78.5%2026-07-26 07:55