The School of Odds

Burnley v Notts County

2026-08-08 14:00 UTC — EFL Cup

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Head to Head

46 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Burnley (Local)

Prediction 59.13%1.69fair odd
EV -4.80%
Edge -2.98%
Kelly -7.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.70%59.10%59.08%62.35%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.461.551.551.6168%65%65%62%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Notts County (Visit)

Prediction 17.83%5.61fair odd
EV +1.62%
Edge +0.285%
Kelly +0.345%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 5.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.19%17.89%17.79%20.36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.305.145.205.7023%19%19%18%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 23.04%4.34fair odd
EV -0.911%
Edge -0.212%
Kelly -0.276%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.46%23.01%23.13%24.40%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.703.913.904.3027%26%26%23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet1.52I 65.79%NM 61.56%EV -10.13%E -6.66%K -19.47%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.42%EV +1.62%E +0.285%K +0.345%G +0.006%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -2.06%E -0.486%K -0.635%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-21 14:30
FanDuel1.48I 67.57%NM 62.35%EV -12.49%E -8.44%K -26.02%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.19%EV +1.62%E +0.285%K +0.345%G +0.006%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.46%EV -0.911%E -0.212%K -0.276%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-21 14:30
Marathon Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 60.17%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.51%EV +0.731%E +0.129%K +0.157%G +0.001%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -7.82%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-25 10:19
1xBet1.57I 63.69%NM 59.67%EV -7.17%E -4.57%K -12.58%G +0.000%5.54I 18.05%NM 16.91%EV -1.23%E -0.222%K -0.271%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -7.82%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-25 10:23
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -11.31%E -7.54%K -22.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -1.94%E -0.353%K -0.432%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -3.22%E -0.766%K -1.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-21 14:29
Sky Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -11.31%E -7.54%K -22.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -1.94%E -0.353%K -0.432%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -3.22%E -0.766%K -1.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-21 14:30
NordicBet1.55I 64.52%NM 59.54%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.09%EV -3.73%E -0.690%K -0.847%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.37%EV -8.98%E -2.27%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-23 14:00
Betsson1.55I 64.52%NM 59.54%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.09%EV -3.73%E -0.690%K -0.847%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.37%EV -8.98%E -2.27%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-23 14:00
BetMGM1.61I 62.11%NM 59.17%EV -4.80%E -2.98%K -7.88%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -6.40%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.68%EV -3.22%E -0.766%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-24 08:05
Coral1.60I 62.50%NM 59.32%EV -5.40%E -3.37%K -8.99%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV -6.40%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -3.22%E -0.766%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-24 08:03
Ladbrokes (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.32%EV -5.40%E -3.37%K -8.99%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV -6.40%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -3.22%E -0.766%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-24 08:04
Betr (AU)1.58I 63.29%NM 59.63%EV -6.58%E -4.16%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -6.40%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -3.22%E -0.766%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-23 14:45
betano_uk1.53I 65.36%NM 59.39%EV -9.53%E -6.23%K -17.99%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.31%EV -6.40%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.30%EV -10.13%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-25 09:04
Bet Victor1.53I 65.36%NM 59.39%EV -9.53%E -6.23%K -17.99%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.31%EV -6.40%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.30%EV -10.13%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-25 09:05
Pinnacle1.57I 63.69%NM 59.27%EV -7.17%E -4.57%K -12.58%G +0.000%5.24I 19.08%NM 17.76%EV -6.58%E -1.26%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.98%EV -6.67%E -1.65%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-21 14:30
Ladbrokes (AU)1.58I 63.29%NM 59.20%EV -6.58%E -4.16%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -5.52%E -1.35%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-24 08:05
Neds1.58I 63.29%NM 59.20%EV -6.58%E -4.16%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -5.52%E -1.35%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-24 08:05
Tipico (DE)1.52I 65.79%NM 60.45%EV -10.13%E -6.66%K -19.47%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.67%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.88%EV -3.22%E -0.766%K -1.00%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-21 14:29
BetRivers1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 05:19
betPARX1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:09
Unibet (SE)1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:30
Unibet (NL)1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:29
Grosvenor1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:29
LiveScore Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:29
Virgin Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:29
Casumo1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:29
ATG (SE)1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:29
Svenska Spel1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:29
TABtouch1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:39
Unibet1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:39
PMU (FR)1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-16 14:05
LeoVegas1.55I 64.52%NM 59.24%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -10.86%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -5.52%E -1.35%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-22 10:54
Bovada1.56I 64.10%NM 58.75%EV -7.76%E -4.97%K -13.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -10.86%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -7.82%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-24 08:01
William Hill1.57I 63.69%NM 58.26%EV -7.17%E -4.57%K -12.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV -10.86%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -10.13%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-24 08:04
Unibet (UK)1.55I 64.52%NM 58.91%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -10.86%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -7.82%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-21 19:20
888sport1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -7.17%E -4.57%K -12.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -10.86%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -12.43%E -3.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-24 08:05
888sport (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -7.17%E -4.57%K -12.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -10.86%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -12.43%E -3.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-24 08:10
Mr Green (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -7.17%E -4.57%K -12.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -10.86%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -12.43%E -3.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-24 08:10
NetBet (FR)1.48I 67.57%NM 58.94%EV -12.49%E -8.44%K -26.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.80%EV -12.64%E -2.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.26%EV -13.59%E -3.62%K -4.94%G +0.000%14.6%2026-07-22 13:34
BoyleSports1.53I 65.36%NM 58.66%EV -9.53%E -6.23%K -17.99%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.90%EV -15.31%E -3.22%K -4.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.44%EV -7.82%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-25 11:04
Betway1.53I 65.36%NM 58.66%EV -9.53%E -6.23%K -17.99%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.90%EV -15.31%E -3.22%K -4.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.44%EV -7.82%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-22 10:54
Winamax (DE)1.50I 66.67%NM 58.21%EV -11.31%E -7.54%K -22.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.40%EV -19.77%E -4.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.39%EV -10.13%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%14.5%2026-07-22 15:39
LowVig.ag1.59I 62.89%NM 55.70%EV -5.99%E -3.77%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.36%EV -22.45%E -5.16%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.94%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-23 11:30
BetOnline.ag1.59I 62.89%NM 55.70%EV -5.99%E -3.77%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.36%EV -22.45%E -5.16%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.94%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-23 11:30
Winamax (FR)1.46I 68.49%NM 57.67%EV -13.67%E -9.37%K -29.73%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 19.58%EV -23.34%E -5.43%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.75%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%18.8%2026-07-22 15:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 59.94%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.11%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%6.3%2026-07-25 16:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.57I 63.69%NM 59.94%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.11%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%6.3%2026-07-25 16:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 59.94%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.11%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%6.3%2026-07-25 16:30