Language:English
Burnley v Notts County
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Burnley (Local)
Prediction 69.45%1.44fair odd
EV -2.76%
Edge -1.97%
Kelly -6.91%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.19%69.43%69.26%72.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.341.351.4080.00%74.58%74.07%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Notts County (Visit)
Prediction 11.41%8.77fair odd
EV +11.23%
Edge +1.15%
Kelly +1.28%
Growth +0.144%
assuming max odds 9.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.64%11.45%11.45%13.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.807.857.509.7514.71%12.73%13.33%10.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 19.14%5.23fair odd
EV +1.05%
Edge +0.199%
Kelly +0.245%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 5.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.68%19.12%19.29%21.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.764.705.2823.26%21.02%21.28%18.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Burnley (Local): 69.45%; Notts County (Visit): 11.41%; Draw: 19.14%. For Notts County (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.77. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.23%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.29%EV -9.71%E -7.47%K -32.37%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.64%EV +11.23%E +1.15%K +1.28%G +0.144% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.07%EV -0.482%E -0.093%K -0.115%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-08 13:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.21%EV -9.02%E -6.88%K -29.08%G +0.000% | 9.58I 10.44%NM 9.87%EV +9.29%E +0.970%K +1.08%G +0.101% | 5.28I 18.94%NM 17.92%EV +1.05%E +0.199%K +0.245%G +0.003% | 5.7% | 2026-08-08 13:59 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.37%EV -7.63%E -5.73%K -23.11%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.55%EV +2.67%E +0.297%K +0.334%G +0.009% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV +0.475%E +0.090%K +0.112%G +0.001% | 5.3% | 2026-08-08 13:49 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.37%EV -7.63%E -5.73%K -23.11%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.55%EV +2.67%E +0.297%K +0.334%G +0.009% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV +0.475%E +0.090%K +0.112%G +0.001% | 5.3% | 2026-08-08 13:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.73%EV -7.63%E -5.73%K -23.11%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV +2.67%E +0.297%K +0.334%G +0.009% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -4.31%E -0.862%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-08 13:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.87%EV -10.40%E -8.07%K -35.88%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.30%EV +2.67%E +0.297%K +0.334%G +0.009% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.83%EV -0.482%E -0.093%K -0.115%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-08 13:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.00%EV -13.18%E -10.55%K -52.73%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV +2.67%E +0.297%K +0.334%G +0.009% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -4.31%E -0.862%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.64%EV -8.32%E -6.30%K -26.00%G +0.000% | 8.70I 11.49%NM 10.72%EV -0.748%E -0.086%K -0.097%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -4.31%E -0.862%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.40%EV -4.85%E -3.54%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 8.51I 11.75%NM 11.01%EV -2.92%E -0.343%K -0.388%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.59%EV -12.92%E -2.84%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-08 13:58 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.40%EV -9.71%E -7.47%K -32.37%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV -3.03%E -0.356%K -0.404%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.68%EV +0.475%E +0.090%K +0.112%G +0.001% | 7.7% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -9.71%E -7.47%K -32.37%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -3.03%E -0.356%K -0.404%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -4.31%E -0.862%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-08 13:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.35%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV -8.73%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -4.31%E -0.862%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.82%EV -6.24%E -4.62%K -17.82%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -8.73%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -9.09%E -1.91%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.39%EV -6.24%E -4.62%K -17.82%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.54%EV -8.73%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -11.97%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-08 13:34 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.71%EV -7.63%E -5.73%K -23.11%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -8.73%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -11.97%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-08 13:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.71%EV -7.63%E -5.73%K -23.11%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -8.73%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -11.97%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-08 13:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.71%EV -7.63%E -5.73%K -23.11%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -8.73%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -11.97%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-08 13:34 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.79%EV -10.40%E -8.07%K -35.88%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.25%EV -8.73%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.95%EV -9.09%E -1.91%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-08 13:57 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 69.69%EV -11.79%E -9.29%K -43.68%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.06%EV -8.73%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.24%EV -11.97%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-08-08 13:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.51%EV -4.85%E -3.54%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 7.90I 12.66%NM 11.71%EV -9.87%E -1.25%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.78%EV -14.84%E -3.33%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.51%EV -4.85%E -3.54%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 7.90I 12.66%NM 11.71%EV -9.87%E -1.25%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.78%EV -14.84%E -3.33%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 13:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.90%EV -7.63%E -5.73%K -23.11%G +0.000% | 7.90I 12.66%NM 11.60%EV -9.87%E -1.25%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.50%EV -10.05%E -2.14%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.64%EV -2.76%E -1.97%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.22%EV -11.59%E -1.49%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.15%EV -10.05%E -2.14%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-08 13:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.09%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.12%EV -11.59%E -1.49%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV -4.31%E -0.862%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -4.31%E -0.862%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -4.31%E -0.862%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -4.31%E -0.862%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -9.09%E -1.91%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-08 13:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -9.09%E -1.91%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-08 13:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -10.05%E -2.14%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -10.05%E -2.14%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 13:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -10.05%E -2.14%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -10.05%E -2.14%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -10.05%E -2.14%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 13:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -10.05%E -2.14%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -10.05%E -2.14%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 13:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -10.05%E -2.14%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -10.05%E -2.14%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -10.05%E -2.14%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -13.88%E -3.08%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-08 13:44 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 66.94%EV -6.24%E -4.62%K -17.82%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.05%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.01%EV -17.71%E -4.12%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-08 13:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.19%EV -4.15%E -3.01%K -10.93%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -20.14%E -2.88%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.76%EV -15.79%E -3.59%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-08 13:58 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.00%EV -6.93%E -5.17%K -20.39%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.02%EV -20.14%E -2.88%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.98%EV -8.14%E -1.70%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-08 13:44 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 66.85%EV -6.93%E -5.17%K -20.39%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -20.14%E -2.88%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.36%EV -15.79%E -3.59%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 67.18%EV -8.32%E -6.30%K -26.00%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.67%EV -20.14%E -2.88%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.15%EV -15.79%E -3.59%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 67.18%EV -8.32%E -6.30%K -26.00%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.67%EV -20.14%E -2.88%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.15%EV -15.79%E -3.59%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 67.18%EV -8.32%E -6.30%K -26.00%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.67%EV -20.14%E -2.88%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.15%EV -15.79%E -3.59%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.02%EV -6.24%E -4.62%K -17.82%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.31%EV -22.42%E -3.30%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -11.97%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-08 13:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.02%EV -6.24%E -4.62%K -17.82%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.31%EV -22.42%E -3.30%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -11.97%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-08 13:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.18% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 9.05% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.77% | 0.5% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.18% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 9.05% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.77% | 0.5% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.18% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 9.05% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.77% | 0.5% | 2026-08-08 13:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.87% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.44% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.70% | 0.9% | 2026-08-08 14:00 |
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