Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Burnley v Notts County

Início: 2026-08-08 14:01 UTC

Final: Burnley 1–1 Notts County

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

49 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Burnley (Local)

Previsão 69.45%1.44odd justa
EV -2.76%
Vantagem -1.97%
Kelly -6.91%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.40

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
66.19%69.43%69.26%72.29%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.251.341.351.4080.00%74.58%74.07%71.43%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Notts County (Visitante)

Previsão 11.41%8.77odd justa
EV +11.23%
Vantagem +1.15%
Kelly +1.28%
Crescimento +0.144%

pressupondo odds máximas de 9.75

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
9.64%11.45%11.45%13.31%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
6.807.857.509.7514.71%12.73%13.33%10.26%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 19.14%5.23odd justa
EV +1.05%
Vantagem +0.199%
Kelly +0.245%
Crescimento +0.003%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.28

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
17.68%19.12%19.29%21.01%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.304.764.705.2823.26%21.02%21.28%18.94%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Burnley (Local): 69.45%; Notts County (Visitante): 11.41%; Empate: 19.14%. Para Notts County (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 8.77. 7 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 9.75, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +11.23%.

Odds das casas de apostas (49 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
SportsBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.29%EV -9.71%E -7.47%K -32.37%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.64%EV +11.23%E +1.15%K +1.28%G +0.144%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.07%EV -0.482%E -0.093%K -0.115%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-08 13:59
Pinnacle🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.21%EV -9.02%E -6.88%K -29.08%G +0.000%9.58I 10.44%NM 9.87%EV +9.29%E +0.970%K +1.08%G +0.101%5.28I 18.94%NM 17.92%EV +1.05%E +0.199%K +0.245%G +0.003%5.7%2026-08-08 13:59
betano_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.37%EV -7.63%E -5.73%K -23.11%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.55%EV +2.67%E +0.297%K +0.334%G +0.009%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV +0.475%E +0.090%K +0.112%G +0.001%5.3%2026-08-08 13:49
Bet Victor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.37%EV -7.63%E -5.73%K -23.11%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.55%EV +2.67%E +0.297%K +0.334%G +0.009%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV +0.475%E +0.090%K +0.112%G +0.001%5.3%2026-08-08 13:59
Coolbet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.73%EV -7.63%E -5.73%K -23.11%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV +2.67%E +0.297%K +0.334%G +0.009%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -4.31%E -0.862%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-08 13:44
FanDuel🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.87%EV -10.40%E -8.07%K -35.88%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.30%EV +2.67%E +0.297%K +0.334%G +0.009%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.83%EV -0.482%E -0.093%K -0.115%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 13:59
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.00%EV -13.18%E -10.55%K -52.73%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV +2.67%E +0.297%K +0.334%G +0.009%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -4.31%E -0.862%K -1.08%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 14:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.64%EV -8.32%E -6.30%K -26.00%G +0.000%8.70I 11.49%NM 10.72%EV -0.748%E -0.086%K -0.097%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -4.31%E -0.862%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 13:54
1xBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.40%EV -4.85%E -3.54%K -13.10%G +0.000%8.51I 11.75%NM 11.01%EV -2.92%E -0.343%K -0.388%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.59%EV -12.92%E -2.84%K -3.64%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-08 13:58
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.40%EV -9.71%E -7.47%K -32.37%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV -3.03%E -0.356%K -0.404%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.68%EV +0.475%E +0.090%K +0.112%G +0.001%7.7%2026-08-08 13:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -9.71%E -7.47%K -32.37%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -3.03%E -0.356%K -0.404%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -4.31%E -0.862%K -1.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 13:45
Coral🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.35%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV -8.73%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -4.31%E -0.862%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 13:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.82%EV -6.24%E -4.62%K -17.82%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -8.73%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -9.09%E -1.91%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 14:00
William Hill🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.39%EV -6.24%E -4.62%K -17.82%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.54%EV -8.73%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -11.97%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-08 13:34
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.71%EV -7.63%E -5.73%K -23.11%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -8.73%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -11.97%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 13:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.71%EV -7.63%E -5.73%K -23.11%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -8.73%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -11.97%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 13:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.71%EV -7.63%E -5.73%K -23.11%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -8.73%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -11.97%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 13:34
Sky Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.79%EV -10.40%E -8.07%K -35.88%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.25%EV -8.73%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.95%EV -9.09%E -1.91%K -2.43%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 13:57
NetBet (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 69.69%EV -11.79%E -9.29%K -43.68%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.06%EV -8.73%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.24%EV -11.97%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-08 13:59
NordicBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.51%EV -4.85%E -3.54%K -13.10%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.71%EV -9.87%E -1.25%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.78%EV -14.84%E -3.33%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 13:50
Betsson🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.51%EV -4.85%E -3.54%K -13.10%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.71%EV -9.87%E -1.25%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.78%EV -14.84%E -3.33%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 13:50
LeoVegas🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.90%EV -7.63%E -5.73%K -23.11%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.60%EV -9.87%E -1.25%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.50%EV -10.05%E -2.14%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 14:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.64%EV -2.76%E -1.97%K -6.91%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.22%EV -11.59%E -1.49%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.15%EV -10.05%E -2.14%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 13:49
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.09%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.12%EV -11.59%E -1.49%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV -4.31%E -0.862%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-08 13:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -4.31%E -0.862%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 13:55
Neds🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -4.31%E -0.862%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 13:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -4.31%E -0.862%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 13:54
BetRivers🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -9.09%E -1.91%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 13:40
theScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -9.09%E -1.91%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 13:59
betPARX🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -10.05%E -2.14%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 14:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -10.05%E -2.14%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 13:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -10.05%E -2.14%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 14:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -10.05%E -2.14%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 14:00
Grosvenor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -10.05%E -2.14%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 13:59
Casumo🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -10.05%E -2.14%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 14:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -10.05%E -2.14%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 13:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -10.05%E -2.14%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 14:00
TABtouch🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -10.05%E -2.14%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 14:00
Unibet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -10.05%E -2.14%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 14:00
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -5.54%E -4.08%K -15.40%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -13.88%E -3.08%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 13:44
PlayUp🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.94%EV -6.24%E -4.62%K -17.82%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.05%EV -14.44%E -1.93%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.01%EV -17.71%E -4.12%K -5.37%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 13:54
Bovada🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.19%EV -4.15%E -3.01%K -10.93%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -20.14%E -2.88%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.76%EV -15.79%E -3.59%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-08 13:58
Winamax (DE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.00%EV -6.93%E -5.17%K -20.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.02%EV -20.14%E -2.88%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.98%EV -8.14%E -1.70%K -2.14%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-08 13:44
Winamax (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 66.85%EV -6.93%E -5.17%K -20.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -20.14%E -2.88%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.36%EV -15.79%E -3.59%K -4.64%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-08 14:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.18%EV -8.32%E -6.30%K -26.00%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.67%EV -20.14%E -2.88%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.15%EV -15.79%E -3.59%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-08 14:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.18%EV -8.32%E -6.30%K -26.00%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.67%EV -20.14%E -2.88%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.15%EV -15.79%E -3.59%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-08 14:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.18%EV -8.32%E -6.30%K -26.00%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.67%EV -20.14%E -2.88%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.15%EV -15.79%E -3.59%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-08 14:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.02%EV -6.24%E -4.62%K -17.82%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.31%EV -22.42%E -3.30%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -11.97%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-08 13:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.02%EV -6.24%E -4.62%K -17.82%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.31%EV -22.42%E -3.30%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -11.97%E -2.60%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-08 13:59
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.36I 73.53%NM 73.18%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.05%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.77%0.5%2026-08-08 14:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.36I 73.53%NM 73.18%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.05%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.77%0.5%2026-08-08 14:00
Matchbook1.36I 73.53%NM 73.18%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.05%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.77%0.5%2026-08-08 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.36I 73.53%NM 72.87%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.44%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.70%0.9%2026-08-08 14:00