La escuela de los momios

Burnley v Notts County

2026-08-08 14:00 UTC — EFL Cup

Resultado del partido

46 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Burnley (Local)

Predicción 59.13%1.69momio equitativo
EV -4.80%
Ventaja -2.98%
Kelly -7.88%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.61

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
55.70%59.10%59.08%62.35%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.461.551.551.6168.49%64.57%64.52%62.11%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Notts County (Visitante)

Predicción 17.83%5.61momio equitativo
EV +1.62%
Ventaja +0.285%
Kelly +0.345%
Crecimiento +0.006%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.19%17.89%17.79%20.36%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.305.145.205.7023.26%19.46%19.23%17.54%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 23.04%4.34momio equitativo
EV -0.911%
Ventaja -0.212%
Kelly -0.276%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.46%23.01%23.13%24.40%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.703.913.904.3027.03%25.58%25.64%23.26%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (46 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
SportsBet1.52I 65.79%NM 61.56%EV -10.13%E -6.66%K -19.47%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.42%EV +1.62%E +0.285%K +0.345%G +0.006%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -2.06%E -0.486%K -0.635%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-21 14:30
FanDuel1.48I 67.57%NM 62.35%EV -12.49%E -8.44%K -26.02%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.19%EV +1.62%E +0.285%K +0.345%G +0.006%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.46%EV -0.911%E -0.212%K -0.276%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-21 14:30
Marathon Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 60.17%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.51%EV +0.731%E +0.129%K +0.157%G +0.001%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -7.82%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-26 07:29
1xBet1.57I 63.69%NM 59.67%EV -7.17%E -4.57%K -12.58%G +0.000%5.54I 18.05%NM 16.91%EV -1.23%E -0.222%K -0.271%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -7.82%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-25 10:23
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -11.31%E -7.54%K -22.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -1.94%E -0.353%K -0.432%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -3.22%E -0.766%K -1.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-21 14:29
Sky Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -11.31%E -7.54%K -22.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -1.94%E -0.353%K -0.432%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -3.22%E -0.766%K -1.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-21 14:30
NordicBet1.55I 64.52%NM 59.54%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.09%EV -3.73%E -0.690%K -0.847%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.37%EV -8.98%E -2.27%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-23 14:00
Betsson1.55I 64.52%NM 59.54%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.09%EV -3.73%E -0.690%K -0.847%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.37%EV -8.98%E -2.27%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-23 14:00
BetMGM1.61I 62.11%NM 59.17%EV -4.80%E -2.98%K -7.88%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -6.40%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.68%EV -3.22%E -0.766%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-24 08:05
Coral1.60I 62.50%NM 59.32%EV -5.40%E -3.37%K -8.99%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV -6.40%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -3.22%E -0.766%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-24 08:03
Ladbrokes (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.32%EV -5.40%E -3.37%K -8.99%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV -6.40%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -3.22%E -0.766%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-24 08:04
Betr (AU)1.58I 63.29%NM 59.63%EV -6.58%E -4.16%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -6.40%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -3.22%E -0.766%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-23 14:45
betano_uk1.53I 65.36%NM 59.39%EV -9.53%E -6.23%K -17.99%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.31%EV -6.40%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.30%EV -10.13%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-25 09:04
Bet Victor1.53I 65.36%NM 59.39%EV -9.53%E -6.23%K -17.99%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.31%EV -6.40%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.30%EV -10.13%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-25 09:05
Pinnacle1.57I 63.69%NM 59.27%EV -7.17%E -4.57%K -12.58%G +0.000%5.24I 19.08%NM 17.76%EV -6.58%E -1.26%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.98%EV -6.67%E -1.65%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-21 14:30
Ladbrokes (AU)1.58I 63.29%NM 59.20%EV -6.58%E -4.16%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -5.52%E -1.35%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-24 08:05
Neds1.58I 63.29%NM 59.20%EV -6.58%E -4.16%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -5.52%E -1.35%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-24 08:05
Tipico (DE)1.52I 65.79%NM 60.45%EV -10.13%E -6.66%K -19.47%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.67%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.88%EV -3.22%E -0.766%K -1.00%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-21 14:29
BetRivers1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 05:19
betPARX1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:09
Unibet (SE)1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:30
Unibet (NL)1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:29
Grosvenor1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:29
LiveScore Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:29
Virgin Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:29
Casumo1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:29
ATG (SE)1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:29
Svenska Spel1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:29
TABtouch1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:39
Unibet1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:39
PMU (FR)1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.40%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-16 14:05
LeoVegas1.55I 64.52%NM 59.24%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -10.86%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -5.52%E -1.35%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-22 10:54
Bovada1.56I 64.10%NM 58.75%EV -7.76%E -4.97%K -13.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -10.86%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -7.82%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-24 08:01
William Hill1.57I 63.69%NM 58.26%EV -7.17%E -4.57%K -12.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV -10.86%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -10.13%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-24 08:04
Unibet (UK)1.55I 64.52%NM 58.91%EV -8.35%E -5.39%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -10.86%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -7.82%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-21 19:20
888sport1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -7.17%E -4.57%K -12.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -10.86%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -12.43%E -3.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-24 08:05
888sport (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -7.17%E -4.57%K -12.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -10.86%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -12.43%E -3.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-24 08:10
Mr Green (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -7.17%E -4.57%K -12.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -10.86%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -12.43%E -3.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-24 08:10
NetBet (FR)1.48I 67.57%NM 58.94%EV -12.49%E -8.44%K -26.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.80%EV -12.64%E -2.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.26%EV -13.59%E -3.62%K -4.94%G +0.000%14.6%2026-07-22 13:34
BoyleSports1.53I 65.36%NM 58.66%EV -9.53%E -6.23%K -17.99%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.90%EV -15.31%E -3.22%K -4.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.44%EV -7.82%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-25 11:04
Betway1.53I 65.36%NM 58.66%EV -9.53%E -6.23%K -17.99%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.90%EV -15.31%E -3.22%K -4.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.44%EV -7.82%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-22 10:54
Winamax (DE)1.50I 66.67%NM 58.21%EV -11.31%E -7.54%K -22.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.40%EV -19.77%E -4.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.39%EV -10.13%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%14.5%2026-07-22 15:39
LowVig.ag1.59I 62.89%NM 55.70%EV -5.99%E -3.77%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.36%EV -22.45%E -5.16%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.94%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-23 11:30
BetOnline.ag1.59I 62.89%NM 55.70%EV -5.99%E -3.77%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.36%EV -22.45%E -5.16%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.94%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-23 11:30
Winamax (FR)1.46I 68.49%NM 57.67%EV -13.67%E -9.37%K -29.73%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 19.58%EV -23.34%E -5.43%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.75%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%18.8%2026-07-22 15:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (3)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 59.94%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.11%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%6.3%2026-07-25 16:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.57I 63.69%NM 59.94%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.11%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%6.3%2026-07-26 07:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 59.94%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.11%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%6.3%2026-07-26 07:55