Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Bournemouth v Lincoln City

Início: 2026-09-08 18:45 UTC

Final: Bournemouth 4–0 Lincoln City

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

51 casas de apostas (18 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Bournemouth (Local)

Previsão 76.50%1.31odd justa
EV -1.31%
Vantagem -1.02%
Kelly -4.52%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.29

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
73.29%76.26%76.61%78.13%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.181.231.231.2984.75%81.27%81.30%77.52%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Lincoln City (Visitante)

Previsão 8.73%11.45odd justa
EV +4.76%
Vantagem +0.397%
Kelly +0.433%
Crescimento +0.021%

pressupondo odds máximas de 12.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
7.68%8.80%8.74%10.78%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
8.5010.2310.0012.0011.76%9.78%10.00%8.33%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 14.77%6.77odd justa
EV -0.319%
Vantagem -0.047%
Kelly -0.055%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 6.75

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
14.13%14.94%14.65%16.51%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
5.506.126.006.7518.18%16.34%16.67%14.81%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Bournemouth (Local): 76.50%; Lincoln City (Visitante): 8.73%; Empate: 14.77%. Para Lincoln City (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 11.45. 13 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 12.00, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +4.76%.

Odds das casas de apostas (51 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Marathon Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.04%EV -4.37%E -3.50%K -17.49%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.03%EV +4.76%E +0.397%K +0.433%G +0.021%6.45I 15.50%NM 14.93%EV -4.75%E -0.736%K -0.871%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-08 18:25
Coolbet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.96%EV -5.90%E -4.80%K -25.66%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +4.76%E +0.397%K +0.433%G +0.021%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.15%EV -7.70%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-08 18:15
betano_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.56%EV -6.67%E -5.46%K -30.30%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +4.76%E +0.397%K +0.433%G +0.021%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -4.01%E -0.617%K -0.729%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-08 17:35
Bet Victor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.56%EV -6.67%E -5.46%K -30.30%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +4.76%E +0.397%K +0.433%G +0.021%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -4.01%E -0.617%K -0.729%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-08 17:38
Tipico (DE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.13%EV -9.73%E -8.24%K -54.04%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.68%EV +4.76%E +0.397%K +0.433%G +0.021%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -4.01%E -0.617%K -0.729%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-08 18:30
1xBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.63%EV -3.61%E -2.86%K -13.87%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.40%EV +0.395%E +0.034%K +0.038%G +0.000%6.45I 15.50%NM 14.97%EV -4.75%E -0.736%K -0.871%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-08 17:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.32%EV -5.90%E -4.80%K -25.66%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.27%EV +0.395%E +0.034%K +0.038%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.41%EV -2.53%E -0.384%K -0.452%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-08 18:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.32%EV -5.90%E -4.80%K -25.66%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.27%EV +0.395%E +0.034%K +0.038%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.41%EV -2.53%E -0.384%K -0.452%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-08 18:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.70%EV -5.90%E -4.80%K -25.66%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.20%EV +0.395%E +0.034%K +0.038%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.09%EV -7.70%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-08 18:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.07%EV -5.14%E -4.14%K -21.40%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.20%EV +0.395%E +0.034%K +0.038%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV -11.39%E -1.90%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-08 18:40
Betsson🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.30%EV -4.37%E -3.50%K -17.49%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.18%EV +0.395%E +0.034%K +0.038%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.51%EV -15.82%E -2.78%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-08 18:10
NordicBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.30%EV -4.37%E -3.50%K -17.49%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.18%EV +0.395%E +0.034%K +0.038%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.51%EV -15.82%E -2.78%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-08 18:09
SportsBet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.99%EV -7.43%E -6.14%K -35.39%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV +0.395%E +0.034%K +0.038%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -7.70%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-08 18:30
Pinnacle🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.72%EV -5.14%E -4.14%K -21.40%G +0.000%11.09I 9.02%NM 8.58%EV -3.18%E -0.287%K -0.316%G +0.000%6.47I 15.46%NM 14.70%EV -4.45%E -0.688%K -0.814%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-08 18:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.86%EV -5.90%E -4.80%K -25.66%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.59%EV -3.97%E -0.361%K -0.397%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.54%EV -4.01%E -0.617%K -0.729%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-08 18:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 75.68%EV -1.31%E -1.02%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.30%EV -8.34%E -0.794%K -0.877%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 15.02%EV -4.01%E -0.617%K -0.729%G +0.000%2.4%2026-09-08 17:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 75.68%EV -1.31%E -1.02%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.30%EV -8.34%E -0.794%K -0.877%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 15.02%EV -4.01%E -0.617%K -0.729%G +0.000%2.4%2026-09-08 17:50
FanDuel🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.84%EV -7.43%E -6.14%K -35.39%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -8.34%E -0.794%K -0.877%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.30%EV -4.01%E -0.617%K -0.729%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-08 18:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.39%EV -9.73%E -8.24%K -54.04%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.58%EV -8.34%E -0.794%K -0.877%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.02%EV -11.39%E -1.90%K -2.28%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-08 18:30
BetMGM🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.33%EV -4.37%E -3.50%K -17.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.54%EV -12.70%E -1.27%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.13%EV -0.319%E -0.047%K -0.055%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-08 18:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -4.37%E -3.50%K -17.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -12.70%E -1.27%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -4.01%E -0.617%K -0.729%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-08 18:10
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -4.37%E -3.50%K -17.49%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -12.70%E -1.27%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -4.01%E -0.617%K -0.729%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-08 18:10
Betway🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.35%EV -6.67%E -5.46%K -30.30%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -12.70%E -1.27%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -4.01%E -0.617%K -0.729%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-08 18:25
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.67%E -5.46%K -30.30%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -12.70%E -1.27%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -11.39%E -1.90%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-08 18:40
theScore Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.65%EV -8.20%E -6.83%K -40.99%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -12.70%E -1.27%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -4.01%E -0.617%K -0.729%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-08 18:30
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.06%EV -6.67%E -5.46%K -30.30%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.16%EV -12.70%E -1.27%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.79%EV -14.35%E -2.47%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-08 18:20
Bovada🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.60%EV -7.43%E -6.14%K -35.39%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -12.70%E -1.27%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -11.39%E -1.90%K -2.28%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-08 18:25
888sport🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.41%EV -6.67%E -5.46%K -30.30%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -12.70%E -1.27%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -18.78%E -3.41%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-08 17:44
888sport (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.41%EV -6.67%E -5.46%K -30.30%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -12.70%E -1.27%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -18.78%E -3.41%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-08 17:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.41%EV -6.67%E -5.46%K -30.30%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -12.70%E -1.27%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -18.78%E -3.41%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-08 17:44
PlayUp🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.41%EV -6.67%E -5.46%K -30.30%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -12.70%E -1.27%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -18.78%E -3.41%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-08 18:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 75.91%EV -8.96%E -7.53%K -47.17%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.03%EV -12.70%E -1.27%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.06%EV -11.39%E -1.90%K -2.28%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-08 18:40
Paddy Power🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -9.73%E -8.24%K -54.04%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -12.70%E -1.27%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -11.39%E -1.90%K -2.28%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-08 18:30
betPARX🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.48%EV -3.61%E -2.86%K -13.87%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -17.07%E -1.80%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -11.39%E -1.90%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-08 17:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.48%EV -3.61%E -2.86%K -13.87%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -17.07%E -1.80%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -11.39%E -1.90%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-08 17:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.48%EV -3.61%E -2.86%K -13.87%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -17.07%E -1.80%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -11.39%E -1.90%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-08 17:45
Grosvenor🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.48%EV -3.61%E -2.86%K -13.87%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -17.07%E -1.80%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -11.39%E -1.90%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-08 17:45
Casumo🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.48%EV -3.61%E -2.86%K -13.87%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -17.07%E -1.80%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -11.39%E -1.90%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-08 17:50
Unibet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.48%EV -3.61%E -2.86%K -13.87%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -17.07%E -1.80%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -11.39%E -1.90%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-08 17:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.25%EV -5.14%E -4.14%K -21.40%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -17.07%E -1.80%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.93%EV -7.70%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 18:10
Neds🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.25%EV -5.14%E -4.14%K -21.40%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -17.07%E -1.80%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.93%EV -7.70%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 18:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.13%EV -7.43%E -6.14%K -35.39%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.70%EV -17.07%E -1.80%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -4.01%E -0.617%K -0.729%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-08 18:30
LeoVegas🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.70%EV -7.43%E -6.14%K -35.39%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -17.07%E -1.80%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.66%EV -7.70%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-08 18:35
Sky Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.91%EV -8.20%E -6.83%K -40.99%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.46%EV -17.07%E -1.80%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.63%EV -15.09%E -2.62%K -3.18%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-08 18:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.83%EV -4.37%E -3.50%K -17.49%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.25%EV -21.43%E -2.38%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.91%EV -14.35%E -2.47%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-08 17:45
TABtouch🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.83%EV -4.37%E -3.50%K -17.49%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.25%EV -21.43%E -2.38%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.91%EV -14.35%E -2.47%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-08 17:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.45%EV -8.20%E -6.83%K -40.99%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.06%EV -21.43%E -2.38%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.49%EV -7.70%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-08 18:29
BetRivers🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.29%EV -4.37%E -3.50%K -17.49%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -25.80%E -3.03%K -3.44%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.93%EV -15.09%E -2.62%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-08 17:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 73.61%EV -7.43%E -6.14%K -35.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.48%EV -25.80%E -3.03%K -3.44%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.91%EV -17.30%E -3.09%K -3.76%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-08 17:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 73.61%EV -7.43%E -6.14%K -35.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.48%EV -25.80%E -3.03%K -3.44%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.91%EV -17.30%E -3.09%K -3.76%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-08 17:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 73.61%EV -7.43%E -6.14%K -35.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.48%EV -25.80%E -3.03%K -3.44%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.91%EV -17.30%E -3.09%K -3.76%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-08 17:35
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 78.40%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.38%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22%0.4%2026-09-08 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 78.40%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.38%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22%0.4%2026-09-08 18:25
Matchbook◎1.27I 78.74%NM 78.40%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.38%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22%0.4%2026-09-08 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 78.07%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.34%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.58%0.9%2026-09-08 18:40