Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Bournemouth v Lincoln City

2026-09-08 18:45 UTC — EFL Cup

Resultado del partido

44 corredores (12 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Bournemouth (Local)

Predicción 72.37%1.38momio equitativo
EV -3.75%
Ventaja -2.82%
Kelly -11.35%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.33

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
69.63%72.06%72.40%74.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.191.291.301.3384.03%77.46%76.92%75.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Lincoln City (Visitante)

Predicción 10.79%9.27momio equitativo
EV +4.64%
Ventaja +0.478%
Kelly +0.533%
Crecimiento +0.025%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 9.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
9.68%10.87%10.79%12.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
7.008.328.109.7014.29%12.02%12.35%10.31%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 16.84%5.94momio equitativo
EV -0.639%
Ventaja -0.108%
Kelly -0.130%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.50%17.07%16.81%19.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.755.385.405.9021.05%18.60%18.52%16.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Bournemouth (Local): 72.37%; Lincoln City (Visitante): 10.79%; Empate: 16.84%. Para Lincoln City (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 9.27. 7 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 9.70, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +4.64%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (44 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Betsson🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.71%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.35%G +0.000%9.70I 10.31%NM 9.70%EV +4.64%E +0.478%K +0.533%G +0.025%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -19.16%E -3.99%K -5.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 16:55
NordicBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.71%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.35%G +0.000%9.70I 10.31%NM 9.70%EV +4.64%E +0.478%K +0.533%G +0.025%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -19.16%E -3.99%K -5.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 16:53
Betr (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.67%EV -7.36%E -5.75%K -26.30%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.93%EV +2.48%E +0.261%K +0.292%G +0.007%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.40%EV -3.17%E -0.551%K -0.666%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 14:45
Coolbet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.97%EV -6.64%E -5.15%K -22.90%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.91%EV +2.48%E +0.261%K +0.292%G +0.007%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -7.38%E -1.34%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 13:59
SportsBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.44%EV -9.54%E -7.63%K -38.14%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.79%EV +2.48%E +0.261%K +0.292%G +0.007%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.77%EV -0.639%E -0.108%K -0.130%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-03 16:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -9.54%E -7.63%K -38.14%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV +2.48%E +0.261%K +0.292%G +0.007%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -7.38%E -1.34%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-03 14:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.89%EV -4.47%E -3.39%K -13.97%G +0.000%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.24%EV +1.40%E +0.149%K +0.167%G +0.002%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.88%EV -4.01%E -0.703%K -0.853%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-03 18:54
1xBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.49%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.35%G +0.000%9.10I 10.99%NM 10.59%EV -1.83%E -0.201%K -0.226%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.91%EV -4.01%E -0.703%K -0.853%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-03 18:59
Coral🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.96%EV -5.92%E -4.55%K -19.72%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -2.91%E -0.323%K -0.364%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.50%EV -3.17%E -0.551%K -0.666%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 14:14
Tipico (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.63%EV -9.54%E -7.63%K -38.14%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -2.91%E -0.323%K -0.364%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.15%EV -4.01%E -0.703%K -0.853%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-03 16:45
betano_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -9.54%E -7.63%K -38.14%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -2.91%E -0.323%K -0.364%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -7.38%E -1.34%K -1.64%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-03 14:00
Bet Victor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -9.54%E -7.63%K -38.14%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -2.91%E -0.323%K -0.364%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -7.38%E -1.34%K -1.64%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-03 14:00
Paddy Power🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.67%EV -11.71%E -9.60%K -53.21%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.99%EV -2.91%E -0.323%K -0.364%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -7.38%E -1.34%K -1.64%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-03 18:50
BetMGM🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.59%EV -5.19%E -3.96%K -16.75%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.87%EV -5.61%E -0.641%K -0.724%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.54%EV -3.17%E -0.551%K -0.666%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-03 14:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -5.92%E -4.55%K -19.72%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -8.30%E -0.977%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -3.17%E -0.551%K -0.666%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 13:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -5.92%E -4.55%K -19.72%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -8.30%E -0.977%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -3.17%E -0.551%K -0.666%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 18:49
William Hill🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -5.92%E -4.55%K -19.72%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -8.30%E -0.977%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -15.80%E -3.16%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-03 15:00
FanDuel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.74%EV -10.26%E -8.27%K -42.75%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -8.30%E -0.977%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.50%EV -0.639%E -0.108%K -0.130%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-03 14:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 73.05%EV -13.88%E -11.66%K -73.04%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.23%EV -8.30%E -0.977%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.72%EV -12.43%E -2.39%K -2.96%G +0.000%15.0%2026-09-03 19:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.96%EV -5.92%E -4.55%K -19.72%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.34%EV -11.00%E -1.33%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV -5.69%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 14:40
Neds🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.96%EV -5.92%E -4.55%K -19.72%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.34%EV -11.00%E -1.33%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV -5.69%E -1.02%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 14:45
Pinnacle🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.71%EV -5.19%E -3.96%K -16.75%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.46%EV -11.54%E -1.41%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.58I 17.92%NM 16.83%EV -6.03%E -1.08%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 14:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.79%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.35%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -13.70%E -1.71%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.44%EV -9.06%E -1.68%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 15:45
betPARX🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.79%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.35%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -13.70%E -1.71%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.44%EV -9.06%E -1.68%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 16:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.79%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.35%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -13.70%E -1.71%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.44%EV -9.06%E -1.68%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 16:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.79%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.35%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -13.70%E -1.71%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.44%EV -9.06%E -1.68%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 16:40
Grosvenor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.79%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.35%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -13.70%E -1.71%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.44%EV -9.06%E -1.68%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 16:44
Casumo🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.79%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.35%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -13.70%E -1.71%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.44%EV -9.06%E -1.68%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 16:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.79%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.35%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -13.70%E -1.71%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.44%EV -9.06%E -1.68%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 16:44
ATG (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.79%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.35%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -13.70%E -1.71%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.44%EV -9.06%E -1.68%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 16:44
TABtouch🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.79%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.35%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -13.70%E -1.71%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.44%EV -9.06%E -1.68%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 16:50
Unibet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.79%EV -3.75%E -2.82%K -11.35%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -13.70%E -1.71%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.44%EV -9.06%E -1.68%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 17:15
888sport🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -5.92%E -4.55%K -19.72%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -13.70%E -1.71%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -15.80%E -3.16%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-03 13:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -5.92%E -4.55%K -19.72%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -13.70%E -1.71%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -15.80%E -3.16%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-03 14:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -5.92%E -4.55%K -19.72%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -13.70%E -1.71%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -15.80%E -3.16%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-03 13:59
PlayUp🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.63%EV -5.92%E -4.55%K -19.72%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.31%EV -13.70%E -1.71%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.06%EV -20.01%E -4.21%K -5.34%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-03 15:00
BoyleSports🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -5.92%E -4.55%K -19.72%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -19.09%E -2.55%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -15.80%E -3.16%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-03 14:00
LeoVegas🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.20%EV -8.09%E -6.37%K -29.96%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV -19.09%E -2.55%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.74%EV -9.06%E -1.68%K -2.06%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-03 14:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 71.28%EV -8.81%E -6.99%K -33.89%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.39%EV -21.79%E -3.01%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -7.38%E -1.34%K -1.64%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-03 13:59
LiveScore Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 69.67%EV -8.09%E -6.37%K -29.96%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.64%EV -24.49%E -3.50%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.70%EV -15.80%E -3.16%K -3.95%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-03 16:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 69.67%EV -8.09%E -6.37%K -29.96%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.64%EV -24.49%E -3.50%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.70%EV -15.80%E -3.16%K -3.95%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-03 16:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 69.67%EV -8.09%E -6.37%K -29.96%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.64%EV -24.49%E -3.50%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.70%EV -15.80%E -3.16%K -3.95%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-03 16:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 70.64%EV -10.26%E -8.27%K -42.75%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.51%EV -24.49%E -3.50%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.85%EV -12.43%E -2.39%K -2.96%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-03 13:59
Sky Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 70.51%EV -11.71%E -9.60%K -53.21%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.29%EV -24.49%E -3.50%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.20%EV -15.80%E -3.16%K -3.95%G +0.000%16.3%2026-09-03 13:59
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (3)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%177.8%2026-09-03 19:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%177.8%2026-09-03 19:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-09-03 19:25