Language:English
Peñarol Montevideo v Independiente Santa Fe
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Peñarol Montevideo (Local)
Prediction 57.87%1.73fair odd
EV +0.108%
Edge +0.063%
Kelly +0.148%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.73
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.21%57.70%57.99%59.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.621.601.7365.36%61.88%62.50%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Independiente Santa Fe (Visit)
Prediction 16.12%6.20fair odd
EV +4.78%
Edge +0.735%
Kelly +0.869%
Growth +0.042%
assuming max odds 6.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.40%16.33%15.94%18.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.635.566.5020.00%17.76%17.97%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.01%3.84fair odd
EV -1.67%
Edge -0.441%
Kelly -0.599%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.78
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.09%25.97%26.07%27.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.563.603.7830.30%28.12%27.78%26.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Peñarol Montevideo (Local): 57.87%; Independiente Santa Fe (Visit): 16.12%; Draw: 26.01%. For Independiente Santa Fe (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.20. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.78%.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everygame🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.61%EV -9.15%E -5.83%K -16.05%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV +4.78%E +0.735%K +0.869%G +0.042% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-28 00:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.48%EV -6.84%E -4.25%K -11.21%G +0.000% | 6.45I 15.50%NM 14.85%EV +3.97%E +0.616%K +0.729%G +0.029% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.67%EV -2.97%E -0.795%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-28 00:20 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.52%EV -9.15%E -5.83%K -16.05%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.60%EV +3.17%E +0.495%K +0.586%G +0.019% | 3.61I 27.70%NM 25.88%EV -6.09%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-28 00:19 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.66%EV -7.99%E -5.03%K -13.55%G +0.000% | 6.22I 16.08%NM 15.25%EV +0.264%E +0.042%K +0.051%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.09%EV -1.67%E -0.441%K -0.599%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-28 00:19 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.86%EV -4.52%E -2.74%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.91%EV -3.28%E -0.547%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.23%EV -5.31%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-28 00:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.86%EV -4.52%E -2.74%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.91%EV -3.28%E -0.547%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.23%EV -5.31%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-27 23:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.75%EV -6.26%E -3.86%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -3.28%E -0.547%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%EV -2.45%E -0.652%K -0.890%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-28 00:08 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.06%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.36%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -3.28%E -0.547%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.20%EV -2.45%E -0.652%K -0.890%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-28 00:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.36%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -3.28%E -0.547%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-28 00:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.47%EV -9.15%E -5.83%K -16.05%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -3.28%E -0.547%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-28 00:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.08%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.36%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.75%EV -4.89%E -0.829%K -0.999%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -7.65%E -2.15%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-28 00:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.08%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.36%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.75%EV -4.89%E -0.829%K -0.999%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -7.65%E -2.15%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-28 00:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.69%EV -7.99%E -5.03%K -13.55%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -6.51%E -1.12%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -3.75%E -1.01%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-28 00:19 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 57.86%EV -7.99%E -5.03%K -13.55%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.86%EV -6.51%E -1.12%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-28 00:19 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.26%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.36%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.80%EV -6.51%E -1.12%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.95%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-28 00:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.90%EV -6.84%E -4.25%K -11.21%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.21%EV -7.31%E -1.27%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-28 00:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.84%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.36%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.09%EV -7.31%E -1.27%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -7.65%E -2.15%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-28 00:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.18%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.36%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.91%EV -7.31%E -1.27%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-28 00:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.18%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.36%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.91%EV -7.31%E -1.27%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-28 00:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.18%EV -7.41%E -4.63%K -12.36%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.91%EV -7.31%E -1.27%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-28 00:09 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.08%EV -9.15%E -5.83%K -16.05%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.86%EV -7.31%E -1.27%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-28 00:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.85%EV -1.63%E -0.957%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 5.63I 17.76%NM 16.86%EV -9.25%E -1.64%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 27.28%EV -9.47%E -2.72%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-28 00:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.31%EV +0.108%E +0.063%K +0.148%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.71%EV -11.34%E -2.06%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.98%EV -2.45%E -0.652%K -0.890%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-05-28 00:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.31%EV +0.108%E +0.063%K +0.148%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.71%EV -11.34%E -2.06%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.98%EV -2.45%E -0.652%K -0.890%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-05-28 00:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.28%EV -2.21%E -1.31%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -11.34%E -2.06%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-28 00:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.55%EV -10.31%E -6.65%K -18.74%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.22%EV -11.34%E -2.06%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.23%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-28 00:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.55%EV -10.31%E -6.65%K -18.74%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.22%EV -11.34%E -2.06%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.23%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-28 00:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.55%EV -10.31%E -6.65%K -18.74%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.22%EV -11.34%E -2.06%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.23%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-28 00:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.55%EV -10.31%E -6.65%K -18.74%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.22%EV -11.34%E -2.06%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.23%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-28 00:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.41%EV -11.46%E -7.49%K -21.63%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.97%EV -11.34%E -2.06%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -14.15%E -4.29%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-05-28 00:09 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.75%EV -8.57%E -5.43%K -14.78%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.90%EV -12.95%E -2.40%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-28 00:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.06%EV -2.79%E -1.66%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.77%EV -14.57%E -2.75%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-28 00:16 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.36%EV -3.94%E -2.37%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.65%EV -14.57%E -2.75%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-28 00:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.36%EV -3.94%E -2.37%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.65%EV -14.57%E -2.75%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-28 00:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.36%EV -3.94%E -2.37%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.65%EV -14.57%E -2.75%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-28 00:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.36%EV -3.94%E -2.37%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.65%EV -14.57%E -2.75%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-28 00:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.51%EV -4.52%E -2.74%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.59%EV -14.57%E -2.75%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.90%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-28 00:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.51%EV -6.84%E -4.25%K -11.21%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.50%EV -16.18%E -3.11%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.99%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-28 00:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.51%EV -6.84%E -4.25%K -11.21%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.50%EV -16.18%E -3.11%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.99%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-28 00:19 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.51%EV -6.84%E -4.25%K -11.21%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.50%EV -16.18%E -3.11%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.99%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-28 00:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 57.20%EV -10.89%E -7.07%K -20.16%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.27%EV -17.79%E -3.49%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.53%EV -10.25%E -2.97%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-05-28 00:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.47%EV -2.79%E -1.66%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -19.40%E -3.88%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-28 00:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.62%EV -3.36%E -2.01%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -19.40%E -3.88%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-28 00:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.21%EV -3.36%E -2.01%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -19.40%E -3.88%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-28 00:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.15% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.04% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 0.8% | 2026-05-28 00:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.15% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.04% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 0.8% | 2026-05-28 00:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.15% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.04% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 0.8% | 2026-05-28 00:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.11% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.94% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.96% | 1.4% | 2026-05-28 00:20 |