Language:English
Palmeiras-SP v Sporting Cristal
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Palmeiras-SP (Local)
Prediction 80.19%1.25fair odd
EV -3.77%
Edge -3.14%
Kelly -18.84%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.52%80.29%80.17%82.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.091.161.161.2091.74%86.45%86.21%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sporting Cristal (Visit)
Prediction 6.05%16.52fair odd
EV +15.03%
Edge +0.791%
Kelly +0.835%
Growth +0.125%
assuming max odds 19.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.04%6.10%6.07%7.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
12.0015.0615.0019.008.33%6.64%6.67%5.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 13.75%7.27fair odd
EV +10.02%
Edge +1.25%
Kelly +1.43%
Growth +0.143%
assuming max odds 8.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.57%13.61%13.76%14.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.906.866.888.0016.95%14.57%14.55%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Palmeiras-SP (Local): 80.19%; Sporting Cristal (Visit): 6.05%; Draw: 13.75%. For Sporting Cristal (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 16.52. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 19.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.03%.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.64%EV -10.18%E -9.09%K -84.86%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -3.13%E -0.196%K -0.209%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.57%EV +10.02%E +1.25%K +1.43%G +0.143% | 8.0% | 2026-04-16 22:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.80%EV -6.98%E -6.01%K -43.60%G +0.000% | 12.60I 7.94%NM 7.44%EV -23.72%E -1.88%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.97I 12.55%NM 11.76%EV +9.60%E +1.21%K +1.38%G +0.132% | 6.7% | 2026-04-16 21:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.41%EV -6.17%E -5.28%K -36.31%G +0.000% | 15.74I 6.35%NM 6.05%EV -4.71%E -0.299%K -0.319%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.53%EV +4.52%E +0.594%K +0.684%G +0.031% | 5.0% | 2026-04-16 21:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.02%EV -6.17%E -5.28%K -36.31%G +0.000% | 14.75I 6.78%NM 6.43%EV -10.70%E -0.725%K -0.778%G +0.000% | 7.55I 13.25%NM 12.56%EV +3.83%E +0.507%K +0.585%G +0.022% | 5.5% | 2026-04-16 21:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 81.76%EV -3.77%E -3.14%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.16%EV +15.03%E +0.791%K +0.835%G +0.125% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 13.08%EV +3.14%E +0.419%K +0.483%G +0.015% | 1.9% | 2026-04-16 22:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 81.76%EV -3.77%E -3.14%K -18.84%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.16%EV +15.03%E +0.791%K +0.835%G +0.125% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 13.08%EV +3.14%E +0.419%K +0.483%G +0.015% | 1.9% | 2026-04-16 22:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.17%E -5.28%K -36.31%G +0.000% | 15.95I 6.27%NM 5.97%EV -3.44%E -0.215%K -0.230%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +3.14%E +0.419%K +0.483%G +0.015% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 21:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.17%E -5.28%K -36.31%G +0.000% | 15.95I 6.27%NM 5.97%EV -3.44%E -0.215%K -0.230%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +3.14%E +0.419%K +0.483%G +0.015% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 22:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.12%EV -5.37%E -4.55%K -29.84%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -21.30%E -1.64%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV +3.14%E +0.419%K +0.483%G +0.015% | 5.8% | 2026-04-16 21:56 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.30%EV -6.17%E -5.28%K -36.31%G +0.000% | 13.35I 7.49%NM 7.04%EV -19.18%E -1.44%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 7.42I 13.48%NM 12.66%EV +2.04%E +0.275%K +0.318%G +0.006% | 6.4% | 2026-04-16 21:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.61%EV -8.58%E -7.53%K -61.28%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.81%EV -3.13%E -0.196%K -0.209%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.57%EV +1.77%E +0.239%K +0.276%G +0.005% | 7.5% | 2026-04-16 21:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.10%EV -8.58%E -7.53%K -61.28%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.31%EV -24.32%E -1.95%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.60%EV -0.297%E -0.041%K -0.047%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-16 22:00 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.60%EV -6.98%E -6.01%K -43.60%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV -9.19%E -0.612%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 13.17%EV -2.36%E -0.332%K -0.387%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-16 21:56 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.03%EV -5.37%E -4.55%K -29.84%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV +8.98%E +0.499%K +0.528%G +0.047% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.66%EV -3.73%E -0.534%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-16 22:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.29%EV -6.98%E -6.01%K -43.60%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.24%EV +8.98%E +0.499%K +0.528%G +0.047% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -3.73%E -0.534%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-16 21:53 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.29%EV -6.98%E -6.01%K -43.60%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.24%EV +8.98%E +0.499%K +0.528%G +0.047% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -3.73%E -0.534%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-16 21:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.29%EV -6.98%E -6.01%K -43.60%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.24%EV +8.98%E +0.499%K +0.528%G +0.047% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -3.73%E -0.534%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-16 22:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.29%EV -6.98%E -6.01%K -43.60%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.24%EV +8.98%E +0.499%K +0.528%G +0.047% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -3.73%E -0.534%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-16 22:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.95%EV -6.17%E -5.28%K -36.31%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -15.24%E -1.09%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -3.73%E -0.534%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-16 22:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.45%EV -6.98%E -6.01%K -43.60%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV -9.19%E -0.612%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -3.73%E -0.534%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-16 21:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.58%EV -7.78%E -6.76%K -51.85%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.18%EV -9.19%E -0.612%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -3.73%E -0.534%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-16 21:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.58%EV -7.78%E -6.76%K -51.85%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.18%EV -9.19%E -0.612%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -3.73%E -0.534%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-16 21:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 80.99%EV -10.18%E -9.09%K -84.86%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.05%EV -9.19%E -0.612%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -3.73%E -0.534%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-16 22:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.23%EV -6.17%E -5.28%K -36.31%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.87%EV -3.13%E -0.196%K -0.209%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.91%EV -7.17%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-16 22:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.42%EV -5.37%E -4.55%K -29.84%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.69%EV -15.24%E -1.09%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.88%EV -7.17%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-16 21:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.16%EV -6.17%E -5.28%K -36.31%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -21.30%E -1.64%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.72%EV -7.17%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-16 22:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.59%EV -7.78%E -6.76%K -51.85%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.54%EV -15.24%E -1.09%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 13.87%EV -9.24%E -1.40%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-16 22:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.08%EV -6.17%E -5.28%K -36.31%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.51%EV +2.92%E +0.172%K +0.183%G +0.005% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -10.61%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-16 22:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.94%EV -6.98%E -6.01%K -43.60%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.80%EV -3.13%E -0.196%K -0.209%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -10.61%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-16 22:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.74%EV -6.17%E -5.28%K -36.31%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.09%EV -21.30%E -1.64%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -10.61%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-16 21:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.09%EV -6.98%E -6.01%K -43.60%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 6.80%EV -18.27%E -1.35%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -10.61%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-16 22:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.77%EV -7.78%E -6.76%K -51.85%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.12%EV -9.19%E -0.612%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -10.61%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-16 22:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.77%EV -7.78%E -6.76%K -51.85%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.12%EV -9.19%E -0.612%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -10.61%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-16 22:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.77%EV -7.78%E -6.76%K -51.85%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.12%EV -9.19%E -0.612%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -10.61%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-16 22:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -7.78%E -6.76%K -51.85%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -27.35%E -2.28%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -10.61%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-16 21:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -7.78%E -6.76%K -51.85%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -27.35%E -2.28%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -10.61%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-16 22:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -7.78%E -6.76%K -51.85%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -27.35%E -2.28%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -10.61%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-16 22:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -7.78%E -6.76%K -51.85%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -27.35%E -2.28%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -10.61%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-16 21:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.39%EV -6.98%E -6.01%K -43.60%G +0.000% | 18.50I 5.41%NM 5.04%EV +12.00%E +0.649%K +0.686%G +0.082% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.57%EV -11.99%E -1.87%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-16 22:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 79.86%EV -8.58%E -7.53%K -61.28%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.69%EV -3.13%E -0.196%K -0.209%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.45%EV -13.36%E -2.12%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-16 22:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.84%EV -6.98%E -6.01%K -43.60%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.53%EV -15.24%E -1.09%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.63%EV -14.05%E -2.25%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-16 22:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.84%EV -6.98%E -6.01%K -43.60%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.53%EV -15.24%E -1.09%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.63%EV -14.05%E -2.25%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-16 22:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.84%EV -6.98%E -6.01%K -43.60%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.53%EV -15.24%E -1.09%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.63%EV -14.05%E -2.25%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-16 22:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 80.48%EV -12.59%E -11.55%K -139.88%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.48%EV -3.13%E -0.196%K -0.209%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.04%EV -14.05%E -2.25%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-04-16 22:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 79.13%EV -9.38%E -8.30%K -72.16%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 5.96%EV -9.19%E -0.612%K -0.656%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.90%EV -17.49%E -2.91%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-04-16 21:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 78.52%EV -10.99%E -9.90%K -99.86%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.70%EV -21.30%E -1.64%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 14.77%EV -18.86%E -3.20%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-04-16 21:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.61% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.54% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.85% | 0.2% | 2026-04-16 22:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.61% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.54% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.85% | 0.2% | 2026-04-16 22:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.61% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.54% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.85% | 0.2% | 2026-04-16 22:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 84.45% | 21.01I 4.76%NM 4.66% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.88% | 2.1% | 2026-04-16 21:59 |