A Escola das Odds

Palmeiras-SP v Sporting Cristal

Início: 2026-04-16 22:02 UTC

Final: Palmeiras-SP 2–1 Sporting Cristal

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

46 casas de apostas (13 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Palmeiras-SP (Local)

Previsão 80.19%1.25odd justa
EV -3.77%
Vantagem -3.14%
Kelly -18.84%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.20

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
78.52%80.29%80.17%82.64%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.091.161.161.2091.74%86.45%86.21%83.33%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Sporting Cristal (Visitante)

Previsão 6.05%16.52odd justa
EV +15.03%
Vantagem +0.791%
Kelly +0.835%
Crescimento +0.125%

pressupondo odds máximas de 19.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
5.04%6.10%6.07%7.53%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
12.0015.0615.0019.008.33%6.64%6.67%5.26%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Empate

Previsão 13.75%7.27odd justa
EV +10.02%
Vantagem +1.25%
Kelly +1.43%
Crescimento +0.143%

pressupondo odds máximas de 8.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
11.57%13.61%13.76%14.90%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
5.906.866.888.0016.95%14.57%14.55%12.50%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (46 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargemAtualização
SportsBet1.12I 89.29%NM 82.64%EV -10.18%E -9.09%K -84.86%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -3.13%E -0.196%K -0.209%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.57%EV +10.02%E +1.25%K +1.43%G +0.143%8.0%2026-04-16 22:00
1xBet1.16I 86.21%NM 80.80%EV -6.98%E -6.01%K -43.60%G +0.000%12.60I 7.94%NM 7.44%EV -23.72%E -1.88%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.97I 12.55%NM 11.76%EV +9.60%E +1.21%K +1.38%G +0.132%6.7%2026-04-16 21:59
Pinnacle1.17I 85.47%NM 81.41%EV -6.17%E -5.28%K -36.31%G +0.000%15.74I 6.35%NM 6.05%EV -4.71%E -0.299%K -0.319%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.53%EV +4.52%E +0.594%K +0.684%G +0.031%5.0%2026-04-16 21:59
BetUS1.17I 85.47%NM 81.02%EV -6.17%E -5.28%K -36.31%G +0.000%14.75I 6.78%NM 6.43%EV -10.70%E -0.725%K -0.778%G +0.000%7.55I 13.25%NM 12.56%EV +3.83%E +0.507%K +0.585%G +0.022%5.5%2026-04-16 21:59
Svenska Spel1.20I 83.33%NM 81.76%EV -3.77%E -3.14%K -18.84%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.16%EV +15.03%E +0.791%K +0.835%G +0.125%7.50I 13.33%NM 13.08%EV +3.14%E +0.419%K +0.483%G +0.015%1.9%2026-04-16 22:00
ATG (SE)1.20I 83.33%NM 81.76%EV -3.77%E -3.14%K -18.84%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.16%EV +15.03%E +0.791%K +0.835%G +0.125%7.50I 13.33%NM 13.08%EV +3.14%E +0.419%K +0.483%G +0.015%1.9%2026-04-16 22:00
BetOnline.ag1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.17%E -5.28%K -36.31%G +0.000%15.95I 6.27%NM 5.97%EV -3.44%E -0.215%K -0.230%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +3.14%E +0.419%K +0.483%G +0.015%5.1%2026-04-16 21:59
LowVig.ag1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.17%E -5.28%K -36.31%G +0.000%15.95I 6.27%NM 5.97%EV -3.44%E -0.215%K -0.230%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +3.14%E +0.419%K +0.483%G +0.015%5.1%2026-04-16 22:00
Bovada1.18I 84.75%NM 80.12%EV -5.37%E -4.55%K -29.84%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -21.30%E -1.64%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV +3.14%E +0.419%K +0.483%G +0.015%5.8%2026-04-16 21:56
GTbets1.17I 85.47%NM 80.30%EV -6.17%E -5.28%K -36.31%G +0.000%13.35I 7.49%NM 7.04%EV -19.18%E -1.44%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.42I 13.48%NM 12.66%EV +2.04%E +0.275%K +0.318%G +0.006%6.4%2026-04-16 21:59
Marathon Bet1.14I 87.72%NM 81.61%EV -8.58%E -7.53%K -61.28%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.81%EV -3.13%E -0.196%K -0.209%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.57%EV +1.77%E +0.239%K +0.276%G +0.005%7.5%2026-04-16 21:59
Winamax (DE)1.14I 87.72%NM 80.10%EV -8.58%E -7.53%K -61.28%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.31%EV -24.32%E -1.95%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.60%EV -0.297%E -0.041%K -0.047%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-16 22:00
Suprabets1.16I 86.21%NM 80.60%EV -6.98%E -6.01%K -43.60%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV -9.19%E -0.612%K -0.656%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.17%EV -2.36%E -0.332%K -0.387%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-16 21:56
Coolbet1.18I 84.75%NM 81.03%EV -5.37%E -4.55%K -29.84%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV +8.98%E +0.499%K +0.528%G +0.047%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.66%EV -3.73%E -0.534%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-16 22:00
BetRivers1.16I 86.21%NM 81.29%EV -6.98%E -6.01%K -43.60%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.24%EV +8.98%E +0.499%K +0.528%G +0.047%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -3.73%E -0.534%K -0.622%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-16 21:53
Unibet1.16I 86.21%NM 81.29%EV -6.98%E -6.01%K -43.60%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.24%EV +8.98%E +0.499%K +0.528%G +0.047%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -3.73%E -0.534%K -0.622%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-16 21:59
LeoVegas (SE)1.16I 86.21%NM 81.29%EV -6.98%E -6.01%K -43.60%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.24%EV +8.98%E +0.499%K +0.528%G +0.047%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -3.73%E -0.534%K -0.622%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-16 22:00
Unibet (NL)1.16I 86.21%NM 81.29%EV -6.98%E -6.01%K -43.60%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.24%EV +8.98%E +0.499%K +0.528%G +0.047%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -3.73%E -0.534%K -0.622%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-16 22:00
theScore Bet1.17I 85.47%NM 79.95%EV -6.17%E -5.28%K -36.31%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -15.24%E -1.09%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -3.73%E -0.534%K -0.622%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-16 22:00
Everygame1.16I 86.21%NM 80.45%EV -6.98%E -6.01%K -43.60%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV -9.19%E -0.612%K -0.656%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -3.73%E -0.534%K -0.622%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-16 21:59
William Hill1.15I 86.96%NM 80.58%EV -7.78%E -6.76%K -51.85%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.18%EV -9.19%E -0.612%K -0.656%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -3.73%E -0.534%K -0.622%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-16 21:59
Mr Green (SE)1.15I 86.96%NM 80.58%EV -7.78%E -6.76%K -51.85%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.18%EV -9.19%E -0.612%K -0.656%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -3.73%E -0.534%K -0.622%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-16 21:59
Paddy Power1.12I 89.29%NM 80.99%EV -10.18%E -9.09%K -84.86%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.05%EV -9.19%E -0.612%K -0.656%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -3.73%E -0.534%K -0.622%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-16 22:00
Casumo1.17I 85.47%NM 80.23%EV -6.17%E -5.28%K -36.31%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.87%EV -3.13%E -0.196%K -0.209%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.91%EV -7.17%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-16 22:00
Betr (AU)1.18I 84.75%NM 79.42%EV -5.37%E -4.55%K -29.84%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.69%EV -15.24%E -1.09%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.88%EV -7.17%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-16 21:59
PointsBet (AU)1.17I 85.47%NM 79.16%EV -6.17%E -5.28%K -36.31%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -21.30%E -1.64%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.72%EV -7.17%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-16 22:00
Codere (IT)1.15I 86.96%NM 79.59%EV -7.78%E -6.76%K -51.85%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.54%EV -15.24%E -1.09%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.87%EV -9.24%E -1.40%K -1.65%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-16 22:00
PlayUp1.17I 85.47%NM 80.08%EV -6.17%E -5.28%K -36.31%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.51%EV +2.92%E +0.172%K +0.183%G +0.005%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -10.61%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-16 22:00
Betclic (FR)1.16I 86.21%NM 79.94%EV -6.98%E -6.01%K -43.60%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.80%EV -3.13%E -0.196%K -0.209%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -10.61%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-16 22:00
betfred_uk1.17I 85.47%NM 78.74%EV -6.17%E -5.28%K -36.31%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.09%EV -21.30%E -1.64%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -10.61%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-16 21:59
Winamax (FR)1.16I 86.21%NM 79.09%EV -6.98%E -6.01%K -43.60%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.80%EV -18.27%E -1.35%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -10.61%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-16 22:00
888sport1.15I 86.96%NM 79.77%EV -7.78%E -6.76%K -51.85%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.12%EV -9.19%E -0.612%K -0.656%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -10.61%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-16 22:00
Betway1.15I 86.96%NM 79.77%EV -7.78%E -6.76%K -51.85%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.12%EV -9.19%E -0.612%K -0.656%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -10.61%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-16 22:00
888sport (SE)1.15I 86.96%NM 79.77%EV -7.78%E -6.76%K -51.85%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.12%EV -9.19%E -0.612%K -0.656%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -10.61%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-16 22:00
Neds1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -7.78%E -6.76%K -51.85%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -27.35%E -2.28%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -10.61%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-16 21:59
Ladbrokes (UK)1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -7.78%E -6.76%K -51.85%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -27.35%E -2.28%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -10.61%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-16 22:00
Coral1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -7.78%E -6.76%K -51.85%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -27.35%E -2.28%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -10.61%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-16 22:00
Ladbrokes (AU)1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -7.78%E -6.76%K -51.85%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -27.35%E -2.28%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -10.61%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-16 21:59
NordicBet1.16I 86.21%NM 80.39%EV -6.98%E -6.01%K -43.60%G +0.000%18.50I 5.41%NM 5.04%EV +12.00%E +0.649%K +0.686%G +0.082%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.57%EV -11.99%E -1.87%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-16 22:00
Betsson1.14I 87.72%NM 79.86%EV -8.58%E -7.53%K -61.28%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.69%EV -3.13%E -0.196%K -0.209%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.45%EV -13.36%E -2.12%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-16 22:00
Grosvenor1.16I 86.21%NM 78.84%EV -6.98%E -6.01%K -43.60%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.53%EV -15.24%E -1.09%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.63%EV -14.05%E -2.25%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-16 22:00
LiveScore Bet1.16I 86.21%NM 78.84%EV -6.98%E -6.01%K -43.60%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.53%EV -15.24%E -1.09%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.63%EV -14.05%E -2.25%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-16 22:00
Virgin Bet1.16I 86.21%NM 78.84%EV -6.98%E -6.01%K -43.60%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.53%EV -15.24%E -1.09%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.63%EV -14.05%E -2.25%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-16 22:00
PMU (FR)1.09I 91.74%NM 80.48%EV -12.59%E -11.55%K -139.88%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.48%EV -3.13%E -0.196%K -0.209%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.04%EV -14.05%E -2.25%K -2.68%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-16 22:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.13I 88.50%NM 79.13%EV -9.38%E -8.30%K -72.16%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.96%EV -9.19%E -0.612%K -0.656%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.90%EV -17.49%E -2.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-16 21:59
Unibet (FR)1.11I 90.09%NM 78.52%EV -10.99%E -9.90%K -99.86%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.70%EV -21.30%E -1.64%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.77%EV -18.86%E -3.20%K -3.85%G +0.000%14.7%2026-04-16 21:59
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.18I 84.75%NM 84.61%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.54%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.85%0.2%2026-04-16 22:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.18I 84.75%NM 84.61%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.54%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.85%0.2%2026-04-16 22:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.18I 84.75%NM 84.61%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.54%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.85%0.2%2026-04-16 22:00
Smarkets1.16I 86.21%NM 84.45%21.01I 4.76%NM 4.66%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.88%2.1%2026-04-16 21:59