The School of Odds

Palmeiras-SP v Cerro Porteño

2026-08-12 22:00 UTC — Copa Libertadores

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Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Palmeiras-SP (Local)

Prediction 70.25%1.42fair odd
EV -2.35%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -6.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.27%70.01%70.16%71.56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.261.321.321.3979%76%76%72%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Cerro Porteño (Visit)

Prediction 10.87%9.20fair odd
EV +8.72%
Edge +0.872%
Kelly +0.969%
Growth +0.084%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.33%10.94%11.04%13.45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
6.258.048.0010.0016%12%13%10%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 18.88%5.30fair odd
EV +5.71%
Edge +1.02%
Kelly +1.24%
Growth +0.071%

assuming max odds 5.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.70%19.05%18.80%22.30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.104.894.805.6024%20%21%18%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet1.34I 74.63%NM 71.33%EV -5.86%E -4.37%K -17.24%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.56%EV +8.72%E +0.872%K +0.969%G +0.084%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.12%EV -5.62%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-24 00:10
Betr (AU)1.32I 75.76%NM 71.07%EV -7.27%E -5.51%K -22.71%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV +8.72%E +0.872%K +0.969%G +0.084%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -9.39%E -1.96%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-24 00:09
SportsBet1.31I 76.34%NM 71.23%EV -7.97%E -6.08%K -25.71%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.33%EV +8.72%E +0.872%K +0.969%G +0.084%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -9.39%E -1.96%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-24 00:09
1xBet1.34I 74.63%NM 71.56%EV -5.86%E -4.37%K -17.24%G +0.000%9.55I 10.47%NM 10.04%EV +3.83%E +0.401%K +0.448%G +0.017%5.21I 19.19%NM 18.40%EV -1.66%E -0.318%K -0.393%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-20 12:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.29I 77.52%NM 70.61%EV -9.37%E -7.27%K -32.33%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.59%EV +3.28%E +0.346%K +0.386%G +0.013%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -13.17%E -2.86%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-24 00:09
Paddy Power1.29I 77.52%NM 70.30%EV -9.37%E -7.27%K -32.33%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.55%EV +3.28%E +0.346%K +0.386%G +0.013%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -15.06%E -3.35%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-24 00:19
Marathon Bet1.31I 76.34%NM 71.21%EV -7.97%E -6.08%K -25.71%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.14%EV +0.022%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.66%EV -5.62%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-20 11:50
Bovada1.34I 74.63%NM 70.58%EV -5.86%E -4.37%K -17.24%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.51%EV -2.15%E -0.239%K -0.269%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -5.62%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-24 11:48
Tipico (DE)1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -6.56%E -4.94%K -19.89%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -7.59%E -0.893%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -5.62%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-21 21:14
Betsson1.39I 71.94%NM 66.91%EV -2.35%E -1.69%K -6.03%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.21%EV -9.76%E -1.18%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -19.78%E -4.65%K -6.09%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-25 08:04
NordicBet1.39I 71.94%NM 66.91%EV -2.35%E -1.69%K -6.03%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.21%EV -9.76%E -1.18%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -19.78%E -4.65%K -6.09%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-25 08:05
Codere (IT)1.33I 75.19%NM 69.48%EV -6.56%E -4.94%K -19.89%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.27%EV -10.85%E -1.32%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.25%EV -9.39%E -1.96%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-14 07:14
LeoVegas1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.56%E -4.94%K -19.89%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -13.02%E -1.63%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -9.39%E -1.96%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-24 00:10
Everygame1.33I 75.19%NM 69.14%EV -6.56%E -4.94%K -19.89%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -13.02%E -1.63%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.36%EV -10.34%E -2.18%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-14 19:49
PlayUp1.38I 72.46%NM 66.27%EV -3.05%E -2.21%K -8.03%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.43%EV -13.02%E -1.63%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%EV -22.61%E -5.51%K -7.29%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-25 08:05
Ladbrokes (UK)1.30I 76.92%NM 68.59%EV -8.67%E -6.67%K -28.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.15%EV -13.02%E -1.63%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.27%EV -16.95%E -3.85%K -4.98%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-24 11:50
Ladbrokes (AU)1.30I 76.92%NM 68.59%EV -8.67%E -6.67%K -28.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.15%EV -13.02%E -1.63%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.27%EV -16.95%E -3.85%K -4.98%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-24 11:49
Neds1.30I 76.92%NM 68.59%EV -8.67%E -6.67%K -28.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.15%EV -13.02%E -1.63%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.27%EV -16.95%E -3.85%K -4.98%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-24 11:49
Coral1.30I 76.92%NM 68.59%EV -8.67%E -6.67%K -28.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.15%EV -13.02%E -1.63%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.27%EV -16.95%E -3.85%K -4.98%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-24 11:50
Suprabets1.33I 75.19%NM 68.90%EV -6.56%E -4.94%K -19.89%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.60%EV -14.11%E -1.79%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.50%EV -11.28%E -2.40%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-18 22:44
Unibet1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -7.27%E -5.51%K -22.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -18.46%E -2.46%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +5.71%E +1.02%K +1.24%G +0.071%6.9%2026-05-30 15:00
Casumo1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -7.27%E -5.51%K -22.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -18.46%E -2.46%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +5.71%E +1.02%K +1.24%G +0.071%6.9%2026-05-30 15:00
Grosvenor1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -7.27%E -5.51%K -22.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -18.46%E -2.46%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +5.71%E +1.02%K +1.24%G +0.071%6.9%2026-05-30 15:00
BetRivers1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -7.27%E -5.51%K -22.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -18.46%E -2.46%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +5.71%E +1.02%K +1.24%G +0.071%6.9%2026-05-30 15:00
Unibet (NL)1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -7.27%E -5.51%K -22.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -18.46%E -2.46%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +5.71%E +1.02%K +1.24%G +0.071%6.9%2026-05-30 15:01
LeoVegas (SE)1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -7.27%E -5.51%K -22.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -18.46%E -2.46%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +5.71%E +1.02%K +1.24%G +0.071%6.9%2026-05-30 14:59
Svenska Spel1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -7.27%E -5.51%K -22.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -18.46%E -2.46%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +5.71%E +1.02%K +1.24%G +0.071%6.9%2026-05-30 15:00
ATG (SE)1.32I 75.76%NM 70.84%EV -7.27%E -5.51%K -22.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -18.46%E -2.46%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV +5.71%E +1.02%K +1.24%G +0.071%6.9%2026-05-30 15:00
Unibet (FR)1.27I 78.74%NM 67.95%EV -10.78%E -8.49%K -39.93%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 11.99%EV -21.72%E -3.02%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.07%EV -18.83%E -4.38%K -5.71%G +0.000%15.9%2026-07-14 07:14
Virgin Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -8.67%E -6.67%K -28.91%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -23.90%E -3.41%K -3.98%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.28%EV -0.901%E -0.172%K -0.212%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-30 15:01
LiveScore Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -8.67%E -6.67%K -28.91%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -23.90%E -3.41%K -3.98%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.28%EV -0.901%E -0.172%K -0.212%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-30 15:01
PMU (FR)1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -8.67%E -6.67%K -28.91%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -23.90%E -3.41%K -3.98%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.28%EV -0.901%E -0.172%K -0.212%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-16 12:55
Winamax (DE)1.28I 78.13%NM 67.84%EV -10.08%E -7.87%K -35.99%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.86%EV -26.61%E -3.94%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.30%EV -15.06%E -3.35%K -4.30%G +0.000%15.2%2026-07-14 07:14
Betclic (FR)1.29I 77.52%NM 66.75%EV -9.37%E -7.27%K -32.33%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.45%EV -30.42%E -4.75%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 19.80%EV -17.89%E -4.11%K -5.34%G +0.000%16.1%2026-07-14 07:14
Winamax (FR)1.26I 79.37%NM 66.60%EV -11.48%E -9.11%K -44.16%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 13.43%EV -32.05%E -5.13%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 19.98%EV -20.72%E -4.93%K -6.48%G +0.000%19.2%2026-07-14 07:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.27I 78.74%NM 67.39%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.23%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.38%16.8%2026-07-14 07:15
Arbitrage (48 combinations) +0.20%Betsson 1.39 (72.1%) / SportsBet 10.00 (10.0%) / Unibet 5.60 (17.9%)Show all 48 combinations
Palmeiras-SP (Local)Cerro Porteño (Visit)DrawMargin
Betsson 1.39 (72.1%)Coolbet 10.00 (10.0%)Unibet 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
Betsson 1.39 (72.1%)Coolbet 10.00 (10.0%)Casumo 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
Betsson 1.39 (72.1%)Coolbet 10.00 (10.0%)Grosvenor 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
Betsson 1.39 (72.1%)Coolbet 10.00 (10.0%)BetRivers 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
Betsson 1.39 (72.1%)Coolbet 10.00 (10.0%)Unibet (NL) 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
Betsson 1.39 (72.1%)Coolbet 10.00 (10.0%)LeoVegas (SE) 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
Betsson 1.39 (72.1%)Coolbet 10.00 (10.0%)Svenska Spel 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
Betsson 1.39 (72.1%)Coolbet 10.00 (10.0%)ATG (SE) 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
Betsson 1.39 (72.1%)Betr (AU) 10.00 (10.0%)Unibet 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
Betsson 1.39 (72.1%)Betr (AU) 10.00 (10.0%)Casumo 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
Betsson 1.39 (72.1%)Betr (AU) 10.00 (10.0%)Grosvenor 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
Betsson 1.39 (72.1%)Betr (AU) 10.00 (10.0%)BetRivers 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
Betsson 1.39 (72.1%)Betr (AU) 10.00 (10.0%)Unibet (NL) 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
Betsson 1.39 (72.1%)Betr (AU) 10.00 (10.0%)LeoVegas (SE) 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
Betsson 1.39 (72.1%)Betr (AU) 10.00 (10.0%)Svenska Spel 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
Betsson 1.39 (72.1%)Betr (AU) 10.00 (10.0%)ATG (SE) 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
Betsson 1.39 (72.1%)SportsBet 10.00 (10.0%)Unibet 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
Betsson 1.39 (72.1%)SportsBet 10.00 (10.0%)Casumo 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
Betsson 1.39 (72.1%)SportsBet 10.00 (10.0%)Grosvenor 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
Betsson 1.39 (72.1%)SportsBet 10.00 (10.0%)BetRivers 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
Betsson 1.39 (72.1%)SportsBet 10.00 (10.0%)Unibet (NL) 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
Betsson 1.39 (72.1%)SportsBet 10.00 (10.0%)LeoVegas (SE) 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
Betsson 1.39 (72.1%)SportsBet 10.00 (10.0%)Svenska Spel 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
Betsson 1.39 (72.1%)SportsBet 10.00 (10.0%)ATG (SE) 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
NordicBet 1.39 (72.1%)Coolbet 10.00 (10.0%)Unibet 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
NordicBet 1.39 (72.1%)Coolbet 10.00 (10.0%)Casumo 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
NordicBet 1.39 (72.1%)Coolbet 10.00 (10.0%)Grosvenor 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
NordicBet 1.39 (72.1%)Coolbet 10.00 (10.0%)BetRivers 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
NordicBet 1.39 (72.1%)Coolbet 10.00 (10.0%)Unibet (NL) 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
NordicBet 1.39 (72.1%)Coolbet 10.00 (10.0%)LeoVegas (SE) 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
NordicBet 1.39 (72.1%)Coolbet 10.00 (10.0%)Svenska Spel 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
NordicBet 1.39 (72.1%)Coolbet 10.00 (10.0%)ATG (SE) 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
NordicBet 1.39 (72.1%)Betr (AU) 10.00 (10.0%)Unibet 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
NordicBet 1.39 (72.1%)Betr (AU) 10.00 (10.0%)Casumo 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
NordicBet 1.39 (72.1%)Betr (AU) 10.00 (10.0%)Grosvenor 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
NordicBet 1.39 (72.1%)Betr (AU) 10.00 (10.0%)BetRivers 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
NordicBet 1.39 (72.1%)Betr (AU) 10.00 (10.0%)Unibet (NL) 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
NordicBet 1.39 (72.1%)Betr (AU) 10.00 (10.0%)LeoVegas (SE) 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
NordicBet 1.39 (72.1%)Betr (AU) 10.00 (10.0%)Svenska Spel 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
NordicBet 1.39 (72.1%)Betr (AU) 10.00 (10.0%)ATG (SE) 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
NordicBet 1.39 (72.1%)SportsBet 10.00 (10.0%)Unibet 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
NordicBet 1.39 (72.1%)SportsBet 10.00 (10.0%)Casumo 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
NordicBet 1.39 (72.1%)SportsBet 10.00 (10.0%)Grosvenor 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
NordicBet 1.39 (72.1%)SportsBet 10.00 (10.0%)BetRivers 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
NordicBet 1.39 (72.1%)SportsBet 10.00 (10.0%)Unibet (NL) 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
NordicBet 1.39 (72.1%)SportsBet 10.00 (10.0%)LeoVegas (SE) 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
NordicBet 1.39 (72.1%)SportsBet 10.00 (10.0%)Svenska Spel 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%
NordicBet 1.39 (72.1%)SportsBet 10.00 (10.0%)ATG (SE) 5.60 (17.9%)+0.201%