The School of Odds

Palmeiras-SP v Cerro Porteño

2026-08-12 00:00 — Copa Libertadores

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (5 in analysis)

Option 1: Palmeiras-SP (Local)

Odds
1.2480.65%Min
1.3176.52%Mean
1.3275.76%Median
1.3574.07%Max
Consensus probabilities
66.39%1.506Min
72.25%1.384Max
71.16%1.405Mean
70.92%1.410Median
71.33%1.402IQM
71.17%1.405Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.35 under the IQM model: 71.33%

EV -3.70%Edge -2.74%Kelly -10.58%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Cerro Porteño (Visit)

Odds
6.7514.81%Min
8.3212.03%Mean
8.0012.50%Median
10.509.52%Max
Consensus probabilities
8.98%11.142Min
12.96%7.718Max
10.50%9.524Mean
10.41%9.610Median
10.21%9.794IQM
10.51%9.512Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 10.50 under the IQM model: 10.21%

EV +7.21%Edge +0.686%Kelly +0.758%Growth +0.055%

Option 3: Draw

Odds
4.0025.00%Min
4.9520.22%Mean
4.9520.20%Median
5.6017.86%Max
Consensus probabilities
16.70%5.989Min
22.41%4.463Max
18.34%5.452Mean
18.67%5.355Median
18.46%5.417IQM
18.32%5.460Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 5.60 under the IQM model: 18.46%

EV +3.37%Edge +0.603%Kelly +0.734%Growth +0.025%

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

BookmakerPalmeiras-SP (Local)Cerro Porteño (Visit) ▼DrawMarginUpdated
PlayUp1.33I 75.19% NM 69.19%EV -5.13% E -3.86% K -15.55% G +0.000%11.00I 9.09% NM 8.37%EV +12.31% E +1.12% K +1.23% G +0.152%4.10I 24.39% NM 22.44%EV -24.32% E -5.93% K -7.84% G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-10 16:59
Betr (AU)1.32I 75.76% NM 71.39%EV -5.84% E -4.43% K -18.26% G +0.000%10.50I 9.52% NM 8.98%EV +7.21% E +0.686% K +0.758% G +0.055%4.80I 20.83% NM 19.63%EV -11.39% E -2.37% K -3.00% G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-03 06:24
1xBet1.33I 75.19% NM 72.15%EV -5.13% E -3.86% K -15.55% G +0.000%10.10I 9.90% NM 9.50%EV +3.12% E +0.309% K +0.343% G +0.011%5.23I 19.12% NM 18.35%EV -3.46% E -0.661% K -0.817% G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-30 22:50
SportsBet1.28I 78.13% NM 72.25%EV -8.70% E -6.79% K -31.06% G +0.000%10.00I 10.00% NM 9.25%EV +2.10% E +0.210% K +0.233% G +0.005%5.00I 20.00% NM 18.50%EV -7.70% E -1.54% K -1.93% G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-03 06:25
Betsson1.32I 75.76% NM 70.64%EV -5.84% E -4.43% K -18.26% G +0.000%9.80I 10.20% NM 9.52%EV +0.058% E +0.006% K +0.007% G +0.000%4.70I 21.28% NM 19.84%EV -13.24% E -2.82% K -3.58% G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-04 23:44
NordicBet1.32I 75.76% NM 70.64%EV -5.84% E -4.43% K -18.26% G +0.000%9.80I 10.20% NM 9.52%EV +0.058% E +0.006% K +0.007% G +0.000%4.70I 21.28% NM 19.84%EV -13.24% E -2.82% K -3.58% G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-04 23:45
Marathon Bet1.30I 76.92% NM 71.73%EV -7.27% E -5.59% K -24.24% G +0.000%9.70I 10.31% NM 9.61%EV -0.963% E -0.099% K -0.111% G +0.000%5.00I 20.00% NM 18.65%EV -7.70% E -1.54% K -1.93% G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-30 22:39
Paddy Power1.25I 80.00% NM 71.70%EV -10.84% E -8.67% K -43.35% G +0.000%9.50I 10.53% NM 9.43%EV -3.00% E -0.316% K -0.353% G +0.000%4.75I 21.05% NM 18.87%EV -12.32% E -2.59% K -3.28% G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-03 06:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.25I 80.00% NM 71.70%EV -10.84% E -8.67% K -43.35% G +0.000%9.50I 10.53% NM 9.43%EV -3.00% E -0.316% K -0.353% G +0.000%4.75I 21.05% NM 18.87%EV -12.32% E -2.59% K -3.28% G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-03 06:25
Tipico (DE)1.30I 76.92% NM 71.96%EV -7.27% E -5.59% K -24.24% G +0.000%9.00I 11.11% NM 10.39%EV -8.11% E -0.901% K -1.01% G +0.000%5.30I 18.87% NM 17.65%EV -2.16% E -0.408% K -0.503% G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-07 19:09
Codere (IT)1.31I 76.34% NM 70.61%EV -6.56% E -5.01% K -21.15% G +0.000%8.80I 11.36% NM 10.51%EV -10.15% E -1.15% K -1.30% G +0.000%4.90I 20.41% NM 18.88%EV -9.55% E -1.95% K -2.45% G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-25 08:10
Suprabets1.31I 76.34% NM 70.08%EV -6.56% E -5.01% K -21.15% G +0.000%8.50I 11.76% NM 10.80%EV -13.21% E -1.55% K -1.76% G +0.000%4.80I 20.83% NM 19.12%EV -11.39% E -2.37% K -3.00% G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-05 10:49
LeoVegas1.30I 76.92% NM 70.41%EV -7.27% E -5.59% K -24.24% G +0.000%8.25I 12.12% NM 11.10%EV -15.77% E -1.91% K -2.17% G +0.000%4.95I 20.20% NM 18.49%EV -8.62% E -1.74% K -2.18% G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-03 06:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.35I 74.07% NM 66.39%EV -3.70% E -2.74% K -10.58% G +0.000%8.00I 12.50% NM 11.20%EV -18.32% E -2.29% K -2.62% G +0.000%4.00I 25.00% NM 22.41%EV -26.16% E -6.54% K -8.72% G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-30 15:01
Ladbrokes (AU)1.35I 74.07% NM 66.39%EV -3.70% E -2.74% K -10.58% G +0.000%8.00I 12.50% NM 11.20%EV -18.32% E -2.29% K -2.62% G +0.000%4.00I 25.00% NM 22.41%EV -26.16% E -6.54% K -8.72% G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-30 15:00
Neds1.35I 74.07% NM 66.39%EV -3.70% E -2.74% K -10.58% G +0.000%8.00I 12.50% NM 11.20%EV -18.32% E -2.29% K -2.62% G +0.000%4.00I 25.00% NM 22.41%EV -26.16% E -6.54% K -8.72% G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-30 15:00
Coral1.35I 74.07% NM 66.39%EV -3.70% E -2.74% K -10.58% G +0.000%8.00I 12.50% NM 11.20%EV -18.32% E -2.29% K -2.62% G +0.000%4.00I 25.00% NM 22.41%EV -26.16% E -6.54% K -8.72% G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-30 14:59
Betclic (FR)1.25I 80.00% NM 69.03%EV -10.84% E -8.67% K -43.35% G +0.000%7.75I 12.90% NM 11.13%EV -20.87% E -2.69% K -3.09% G +0.000%4.35I 22.99% NM 19.84%EV -19.70% E -4.53% K -5.88% G +0.000%15.9%2026-06-25 08:10
Unibet (FR)1.25I 80.00% NM 68.98%EV -10.84% E -8.67% K -43.35% G +0.000%7.70I 12.99% NM 11.20%EV -21.38% E -2.78% K -3.19% G +0.000%4.35I 22.99% NM 19.82%EV -19.70% E -4.53% K -5.88% G +0.000%16.0%2026-06-25 08:09
Unibet1.32I 75.76% NM 70.84%EV -5.84% E -4.43% K -18.26% G +0.000%7.50I 13.33% NM 12.47%EV -23.42% E -3.12% K -3.60% G +0.000%5.60I 17.86% NM 16.70%EV +3.37% E +0.603% K +0.734% G +0.025%6.9%2026-05-30 15:00
Casumo1.32I 75.76% NM 70.84%EV -5.84% E -4.43% K -18.26% G +0.000%7.50I 13.33% NM 12.47%EV -23.42% E -3.12% K -3.60% G +0.000%5.60I 17.86% NM 16.70%EV +3.37% E +0.603% K +0.734% G +0.025%6.9%2026-05-30 15:00
Grosvenor1.32I 75.76% NM 70.84%EV -5.84% E -4.43% K -18.26% G +0.000%7.50I 13.33% NM 12.47%EV -23.42% E -3.12% K -3.60% G +0.000%5.60I 17.86% NM 16.70%EV +3.37% E +0.603% K +0.734% G +0.025%6.9%2026-05-30 15:00
BetRivers1.32I 75.76% NM 70.84%EV -5.84% E -4.43% K -18.26% G +0.000%7.50I 13.33% NM 12.47%EV -23.42% E -3.12% K -3.60% G +0.000%5.60I 17.86% NM 16.70%EV +3.37% E +0.603% K +0.734% G +0.025%6.9%2026-05-30 15:00
Unibet (NL)1.32I 75.76% NM 70.84%EV -5.84% E -4.43% K -18.26% G +0.000%7.50I 13.33% NM 12.47%EV -23.42% E -3.12% K -3.60% G +0.000%5.60I 17.86% NM 16.70%EV +3.37% E +0.603% K +0.734% G +0.025%6.9%2026-05-30 15:01
LeoVegas (SE)1.32I 75.76% NM 70.84%EV -5.84% E -4.43% K -18.26% G +0.000%7.50I 13.33% NM 12.47%EV -23.42% E -3.12% K -3.60% G +0.000%5.60I 17.86% NM 16.70%EV +3.37% E +0.603% K +0.734% G +0.025%6.9%2026-05-30 14:59
Svenska Spel1.32I 75.76% NM 70.84%EV -5.84% E -4.43% K -18.26% G +0.000%7.50I 13.33% NM 12.47%EV -23.42% E -3.12% K -3.60% G +0.000%5.60I 17.86% NM 16.70%EV +3.37% E +0.603% K +0.734% G +0.025%6.9%2026-05-30 15:00
ATG (SE)1.32I 75.76% NM 70.84%EV -5.84% E -4.43% K -18.26% G +0.000%7.50I 13.33% NM 12.47%EV -23.42% E -3.12% K -3.60% G +0.000%5.60I 17.86% NM 16.70%EV +3.37% E +0.603% K +0.734% G +0.025%6.9%2026-05-30 15:00
Winamax (DE)1.26I 79.37% NM 69.07%EV -10.12% E -8.03% K -38.94% G +0.000%7.25I 13.79% NM 12.00%EV -25.98% E -3.58% K -4.16% G +0.000%4.60I 21.74% NM 18.92%EV -15.09% E -3.28% K -4.19% G +0.000%14.9%2026-06-25 08:10
Virgin Bet1.30I 76.92% NM 69.77%EV -7.27% E -5.59% K -24.24% G +0.000%7.00I 14.29% NM 12.96%EV -28.53% E -4.08% K -4.75% G +0.000%5.25I 19.05% NM 17.28%EV -3.09% E -0.588% K -0.726% G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-30 15:01
LiveScore Bet1.30I 76.92% NM 69.77%EV -7.27% E -5.59% K -24.24% G +0.000%7.00I 14.29% NM 12.96%EV -28.53% E -4.08% K -4.75% G +0.000%5.25I 19.05% NM 17.28%EV -3.09% E -0.588% K -0.726% G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-30 15:01
Winamax (FR)1.24I 80.65% NM 67.93%EV -11.55% E -9.31% K -48.13% G +0.000%6.75I 14.81% NM 12.48%EV -31.08% E -4.60% K -5.41% G +0.000%4.30I 23.26% NM 19.59%EV -20.62% E -4.80% K -6.25% G +0.000%18.7%2026-06-25 08:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerPalmeiras-SP (Local)Cerro Porteño (Visit)DrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.26I 79.37%7.40I 13.51%4.20I 23.81%16.7%2026-06-25 08:10