StandardmodellInterkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Palmeiras-SP v Cerro Porteño

Matchstart: 2026-08-12 22:00 UTC

Slutresultat: Palmeiras-SP 1–1 Cerro Porteño

Slutodds — de beräknade sannolikheterna och väntevärdet från de sista odds som registrerades före matchstart, enligt den valda modellen. Matchen har börjat, så siffrorna är inte aktuella realtidsvärden. Bedöm tillförlitligheten hos varje modells sannolikhetsprognoser mot utfallen i samtliga avgjorda matcher →

Matchresultat

48 spelbolag (15 i analysen )

Beräknad sannolikhet för varje utfall enligt modellen: Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Palmeiras-SP (Hemma)

Prognos 73.79%1.36rättvist odds
EV -4.08%
Fördel -3.14%
Kelly -13.59%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 1.30

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
71.84%73.70%73.76%76.40%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
1.211.261.271.3082.64%79.16%78.74%76.92%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Cerro Porteño (Borta)

Prognos 7.74%12.92rättvist odds
EV +8.38%
Fördel +0.599%
Kelly +0.645%
Tillväxt +0.054%

med antagandet om högsta odds 14.00

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
6.66%7.81%7.72%9.49%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
9.5011.6712.0014.0010.53%8.57%8.33%7.14%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Oavgjort

Prognos 18.47%5.41rättvist odds
EV +6.76%
Fördel +1.17%
Kelly +1.41%
Tillväxt +0.096%

med antagandet om högsta odds 5.78

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
16.41%18.50%18.52%20.27%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
4.604.985.005.7821.74%20.06%20.00%17.30%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Vid de sista oddsen före start uppskattade Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista) för Matchresultat: Palmeiras-SP (Hemma): 73.79%; Cerro Porteño (Borta): 7.74%; Oavgjort: 18.47%. För Cerro Porteño (Borta) motsvarade uppskattningen ett rättvist decimalodds på 12.92. 12 spelbolag erbjöd slutodds över den nivån; bästa odds var 14.00, motsvarande ett positivt väntevärde på +8.38%.

Spelbolagsodds (48 spelbolag)

Vi är inte knutna till något spelbolag och får ingen ersättning för transaktioner som genomförs hos dem.

SpelbolagHemmaBortaOavgjort ▼MarginalUppdaterat
1xBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.10%EV -5.55%E -4.34%K -19.83%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -22.58%E -2.26%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.78I 17.30%NM 16.41%EV +6.76%E +1.17%K +1.41%G +0.096%5.4%2026-08-12 21:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.40%EV -9.98%E -8.18%K -45.36%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.66%EV +8.38%E +0.599%K +0.645%G +0.054%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV +1.59%E +0.289%K +0.353%G +0.006%7.3%2026-08-12 21:55
Bovada🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.19%EV -7.03%E -5.58%K -27.03%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV -14.84%E -1.35%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -0.258%E -0.048%K -0.059%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 21:49
Svenska Spel🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 74.33%EV -4.08%E -3.14%K -13.59%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.43%EV +0.641%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.23%EV -2.11%E -0.397%K -0.490%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-12 21:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 74.33%EV -4.08%E -3.14%K -13.59%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.43%EV +0.641%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.23%EV -2.11%E -0.397%K -0.490%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-12 21:50
LeoVegas🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.35%EV -4.81%E -3.73%K -16.60%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.38%EV +0.641%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.27%EV -3.03%E -0.577%K -0.713%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-12 21:40
theScore Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.80%EV -7.03%E -5.58%K -27.03%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.25%EV +0.641%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.95%EV -3.03%E -0.577%K -0.713%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-12 21:40
Betway🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.74%EV -4.81%E -3.73%K -16.60%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -22.58%E -2.26%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.87%EV -3.03%E -0.577%K -0.713%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-12 21:54
Pinnacle🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.65%EV -5.55%E -4.34%K -19.83%G +0.000%13.63I 7.34%NM 7.01%EV +5.52%E +0.405%K +0.437%G +0.024%5.21I 19.19%NM 18.34%EV -3.77%E -0.723%K -0.895%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-12 21:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.03%EV -4.81%E -3.73%K -16.60%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.64%EV -3.23%E -0.258%K -0.281%G +0.000%5.21I 19.19%NM 18.33%EV -3.77%E -0.723%K -0.895%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-12 21:09
LowVig.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.03%EV -4.81%E -3.73%K -16.60%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.64%EV -3.23%E -0.258%K -0.281%G +0.000%5.21I 19.19%NM 18.33%EV -3.77%E -0.723%K -0.895%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-12 21:09
BetUS🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.00%EV -4.81%E -3.73%K -16.60%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.64%EV -3.23%E -0.258%K -0.281%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.36%EV -3.95%E -0.760%K -0.941%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-12 21:09
Codere (IT)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.22%EV -7.03%E -5.58%K -27.03%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -7.10%E -0.592%K -0.645%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -3.95%E -0.760%K -0.941%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 21:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.40%EV -8.50%E -6.86%K -35.43%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.10%EV -22.58%E -2.26%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.50%EV -3.95%E -0.760%K -0.941%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-12 21:39
GTbets🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.71%EV -4.08%E -3.14%K -13.59%G +0.000%10.62I 9.42%NM 8.90%EV -17.78%E -1.67%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.14I 19.46%NM 18.39%EV -5.06%E -0.985%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-12 21:14
Marathon Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.43%EV -6.29%E -4.95%K -23.30%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.11%EV -10.97%E -0.954%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.47%EV -6.72%E -1.33%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-12 21:48
Coolbet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.53%EV -4.08%E -3.14%K -13.59%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.35%EV +0.641%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.12%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-12 21:04
Suprabets🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.98%EV -6.29%E -4.95%K -23.30%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV +0.641%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-12 21:11
Unibet (UK)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.98%EV -6.29%E -4.95%K -23.30%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV +0.641%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-12 21:39
Unibet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.14%EV -5.55%E -4.34%K -19.83%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%EV -10.97%E -0.954%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-12 21:44
Casumo🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.14%EV -5.55%E -4.34%K -19.83%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%EV -10.97%E -0.954%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-12 21:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.14%EV -5.55%E -4.34%K -19.83%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%EV -10.97%E -0.954%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-12 21:49
SportsBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.29%EV -7.77%E -6.21%K -31.06%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV +0.641%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-12 21:44
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.85%EV -7.77%E -6.21%K -31.06%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -7.10%E -0.592%K -0.645%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-12 21:49
William Hill🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.85%EV -7.77%E -6.21%K -31.06%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -7.10%E -0.592%K -0.645%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-12 21:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.85%EV -7.77%E -6.21%K -31.06%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -7.10%E -0.592%K -0.645%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-12 21:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.85%EV -7.77%E -6.21%K -31.06%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -7.10%E -0.592%K -0.645%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-12 21:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 73.05%EV -9.24%E -7.51%K -40.18%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -22.58%E -2.26%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.97%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-12 21:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.55%EV -5.55%E -4.34%K -19.83%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.24%EV +0.641%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV -9.49%E -1.94%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-12 21:20
BetRivers🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.75%EV -6.29%E -4.95%K -23.30%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.40%EV -14.84%E -1.35%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.85%EV -9.49%E -1.94%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-12 21:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.08%EV -8.50%E -6.86%K -35.43%G +0.000%10.75I 9.30%NM 8.43%EV -16.78%E -1.56%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.49%EV -9.49%E -1.94%K -2.43%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-12 21:43
Unibet (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 73.70%EV -10.72%E -8.86%K -51.03%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.11%EV -14.84%E -1.35%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.20%EV -9.49%E -1.94%K -2.43%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-12 21:39
Grosvenor🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.46%EV -6.29%E -4.95%K -23.30%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.37%EV -14.84%E -1.35%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -11.34%E -2.36%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-12 21:49
Neds🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.18%EV -7.77%E -6.21%K -31.06%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.02%EV -22.58%E -2.26%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.80%EV -11.34%E -2.36%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-12 21:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.84%EV -7.77%E -6.21%K -31.06%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.45%EV -26.45%E -2.78%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.71%EV -11.34%E -2.36%K -2.98%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-12 21:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.84%EV -7.77%E -6.21%K -31.06%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.45%EV -26.45%E -2.78%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.71%EV -11.34%E -2.36%K -2.98%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-12 21:34
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.84%EV -7.77%E -6.21%K -31.06%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.45%EV -26.45%E -2.78%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.71%EV -11.34%E -2.36%K -2.98%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-12 21:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.67%EV -5.55%E -4.34%K -19.83%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.75%EV -7.10%E -0.592%K -0.645%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.58%EV -12.26%E -2.58%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-12 21:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.03%EV -6.29%E -4.95%K -23.30%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.71%EV -18.71%E -1.78%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.26%EV -12.26%E -2.58%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-12 21:49
Paddy Power🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.61%EV -9.98%E -8.18%K -45.36%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.48%EV -7.10%E -0.592%K -0.645%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.91%EV -12.26%E -2.58%K -3.27%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-12 21:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.61%EV -9.98%E -8.18%K -45.36%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.48%EV -7.10%E -0.592%K -0.645%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.91%EV -12.26%E -2.58%K -3.27%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-12 21:50
Betsson🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.27%EV -4.81%E -3.73%K -16.60%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.46%EV -3.23%E -0.258%K -0.281%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -15.03%E -3.27%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-12 21:34
NordicBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.27%EV -4.81%E -3.73%K -16.60%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.46%EV -3.23%E -0.258%K -0.281%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -15.03%E -3.27%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-12 21:34
PlayUp🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.64%EV -5.55%E -4.34%K -19.83%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.15%EV +0.641%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -15.03%E -3.27%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-12 21:34
betfred_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.68%EV -7.77%E -6.21%K -31.06%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.57%EV -7.10%E -0.592%K -0.645%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -15.03%E -3.27%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-12 21:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 72.23%EV -9.24%E -7.51%K -40.18%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.46%EV -18.71%E -1.78%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.31%EV -15.03%E -3.27%K -4.18%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-12 21:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 72.23%EV -9.24%E -7.51%K -40.18%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.46%EV -18.71%E -1.78%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.31%EV -15.03%E -3.27%K -4.18%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-12 21:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 72.23%EV -9.24%E -7.51%K -40.18%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.46%EV -18.71%E -1.78%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.31%EV -15.03%E -3.27%K -4.18%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-12 21:50
Marginal = Marginal · I = Implicit sannolikhet · NM = Marginalrensad sannolikhet · EV = Väntevärde · E = Fördel · K = Kelly-kriteriet · G = Spelkapitalets tillväxt

Uppdaterat anger när respektive spelbolag senast ändrade sitt odds. En äldre tidpunkt betyder därför att oddset inte har rört sig, inte att det är inaktuellt. Spelbolag som inte har observerats under de senaste cirka 15 minuterna utesluts normalt; endast om dataflödet för en hel marknad tystnar visas i stället de senast registrerade oddsen.

Spelbörser (4)

SpelbolagHemmaBortaOavgjortMarginal ▲Uppdaterat
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.30I 76.92%NM 76.52%16.50I 6.06%NM 6.03%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.45%0.5%2026-08-12 21:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.31I 76.34%NM 75.90%16.50I 6.06%NM 6.03%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.08%0.6%2026-08-12 21:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.31I 76.34%NM 75.90%16.50I 6.06%NM 6.03%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.08%0.6%2026-08-12 21:55
Smarkets1.30I 76.92%NM 76.28%16.50I 6.06%NM 6.01%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.71%0.8%2026-08-12 21:55