Idioma:Español
Palmeiras-SP v Cerro Porteño
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Palmeiras-SP (Local)
Predicción 73.79%1.36momio equitativo
EV -4.08%
Ventaja -3.14%
Kelly -13.59%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.30
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
71.84%73.70%73.76%76.40%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.211.261.271.3082.64%79.16%78.74%76.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Cerro Porteño (Visitante)
Predicción 7.74%12.92momio equitativo
EV +8.38%
Ventaja +0.599%
Kelly +0.645%
Crecimiento +0.054%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 14.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
6.66%7.81%7.72%9.49%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
9.5011.6712.0014.0010.53%8.57%8.33%7.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 18.47%5.41momio equitativo
EV +6.76%
Ventaja +1.17%
Kelly +1.41%
Crecimiento +0.096%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.78
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.41%18.50%18.52%20.27%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.604.985.005.7821.74%20.06%20.00%17.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Palmeiras-SP (Local): 73.79%; Cerro Porteño (Visitante): 7.74%; Empate: 18.47%. Para Cerro Porteño (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 12.92. 12 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 14.00, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +8.38%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.10%EV -5.55%E -4.34%K -19.83%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -22.58%E -2.26%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 5.78I 17.30%NM 16.41%EV +6.76%E +1.17%K +1.41%G +0.096% | 5.4% | 2026-08-12 21:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.40%EV -9.98%E -8.18%K -45.36%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.66%EV +8.38%E +0.599%K +0.645%G +0.054% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV +1.59%E +0.289%K +0.353%G +0.006% | 7.3% | 2026-08-12 21:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.19%EV -7.03%E -5.58%K -27.03%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV -14.84%E -1.35%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -0.258%E -0.048%K -0.059%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-12 21:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.33%EV -4.08%E -3.14%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.43%EV +0.641%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.23%EV -2.11%E -0.397%K -0.490%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-12 21:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.33%EV -4.08%E -3.14%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.43%EV +0.641%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.23%EV -2.11%E -0.397%K -0.490%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-12 21:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.35%EV -4.81%E -3.73%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.38%EV +0.641%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.27%EV -3.03%E -0.577%K -0.713%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-12 21:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.80%EV -7.03%E -5.58%K -27.03%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.25%EV +0.641%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.95%EV -3.03%E -0.577%K -0.713%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-12 21:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.74%EV -4.81%E -3.73%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -22.58%E -2.26%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.87%EV -3.03%E -0.577%K -0.713%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-12 21:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.65%EV -5.55%E -4.34%K -19.83%G +0.000% | 13.63I 7.34%NM 7.01%EV +5.52%E +0.405%K +0.437%G +0.024% | 5.21I 19.19%NM 18.34%EV -3.77%E -0.723%K -0.895%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-12 21:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.03%EV -4.81%E -3.73%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.64%EV -3.23%E -0.258%K -0.281%G +0.000% | 5.21I 19.19%NM 18.33%EV -3.77%E -0.723%K -0.895%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-12 21:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.03%EV -4.81%E -3.73%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.64%EV -3.23%E -0.258%K -0.281%G +0.000% | 5.21I 19.19%NM 18.33%EV -3.77%E -0.723%K -0.895%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-12 21:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.00%EV -4.81%E -3.73%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.64%EV -3.23%E -0.258%K -0.281%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.36%EV -3.95%E -0.760%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-12 21:09 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.22%EV -7.03%E -5.58%K -27.03%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -7.10%E -0.592%K -0.645%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -3.95%E -0.760%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-12 21:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.40%EV -8.50%E -6.86%K -35.43%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.10%EV -22.58%E -2.26%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.50%EV -3.95%E -0.760%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-12 21:39 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.71%EV -4.08%E -3.14%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 10.62I 9.42%NM 8.90%EV -17.78%E -1.67%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.14I 19.46%NM 18.39%EV -5.06%E -0.985%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-12 21:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.43%EV -6.29%E -4.95%K -23.30%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.11%EV -10.97%E -0.954%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.47%EV -6.72%E -1.33%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-12 21:48 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.53%EV -4.08%E -3.14%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.35%EV +0.641%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.12%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-12 21:04 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.98%EV -6.29%E -4.95%K -23.30%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV +0.641%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-12 21:11 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.98%EV -6.29%E -4.95%K -23.30%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV +0.641%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-12 21:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.14%EV -5.55%E -4.34%K -19.83%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%EV -10.97%E -0.954%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-12 21:44 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.14%EV -5.55%E -4.34%K -19.83%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%EV -10.97%E -0.954%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-12 21:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.14%EV -5.55%E -4.34%K -19.83%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%EV -10.97%E -0.954%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-12 21:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.29%EV -7.77%E -6.21%K -31.06%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV +0.641%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-12 21:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.85%EV -7.77%E -6.21%K -31.06%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -7.10%E -0.592%K -0.645%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-12 21:49 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.85%EV -7.77%E -6.21%K -31.06%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -7.10%E -0.592%K -0.645%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-12 21:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.85%EV -7.77%E -6.21%K -31.06%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -7.10%E -0.592%K -0.645%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-12 21:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.85%EV -7.77%E -6.21%K -31.06%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -7.10%E -0.592%K -0.645%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-12 21:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 73.05%EV -9.24%E -7.51%K -40.18%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -22.58%E -2.26%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.97%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-12 21:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.55%EV -5.55%E -4.34%K -19.83%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.24%EV +0.641%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV -9.49%E -1.94%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-12 21:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.75%EV -6.29%E -4.95%K -23.30%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.40%EV -14.84%E -1.35%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.85%EV -9.49%E -1.94%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-12 21:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.08%EV -8.50%E -6.86%K -35.43%G +0.000% | 10.75I 9.30%NM 8.43%EV -16.78%E -1.56%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.49%EV -9.49%E -1.94%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-12 21:43 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 73.70%EV -10.72%E -8.86%K -51.03%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.11%EV -14.84%E -1.35%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.20%EV -9.49%E -1.94%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-12 21:39 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.46%EV -6.29%E -4.95%K -23.30%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.37%EV -14.84%E -1.35%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -11.34%E -2.36%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-12 21:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.18%EV -7.77%E -6.21%K -31.06%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.02%EV -22.58%E -2.26%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.80%EV -11.34%E -2.36%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-12 21:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.84%EV -7.77%E -6.21%K -31.06%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.45%EV -26.45%E -2.78%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.71%EV -11.34%E -2.36%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-12 21:34 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.84%EV -7.77%E -6.21%K -31.06%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.45%EV -26.45%E -2.78%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.71%EV -11.34%E -2.36%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-12 21:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.84%EV -7.77%E -6.21%K -31.06%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.45%EV -26.45%E -2.78%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.71%EV -11.34%E -2.36%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-12 21:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.67%EV -5.55%E -4.34%K -19.83%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.75%EV -7.10%E -0.592%K -0.645%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.58%EV -12.26%E -2.58%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-12 21:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.03%EV -6.29%E -4.95%K -23.30%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.71%EV -18.71%E -1.78%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.26%EV -12.26%E -2.58%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-12 21:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.61%EV -9.98%E -8.18%K -45.36%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.48%EV -7.10%E -0.592%K -0.645%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.91%EV -12.26%E -2.58%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-12 21:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.61%EV -9.98%E -8.18%K -45.36%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.48%EV -7.10%E -0.592%K -0.645%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.91%EV -12.26%E -2.58%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-12 21:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.27%EV -4.81%E -3.73%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.46%EV -3.23%E -0.258%K -0.281%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -15.03%E -3.27%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-12 21:34 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.27%EV -4.81%E -3.73%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.46%EV -3.23%E -0.258%K -0.281%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -15.03%E -3.27%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-12 21:34 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.64%EV -5.55%E -4.34%K -19.83%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.15%EV +0.641%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -15.03%E -3.27%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-12 21:34 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.68%EV -7.77%E -6.21%K -31.06%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.57%EV -7.10%E -0.592%K -0.645%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -15.03%E -3.27%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-12 21:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 72.23%EV -9.24%E -7.51%K -40.18%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.46%EV -18.71%E -1.78%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.31%EV -15.03%E -3.27%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-12 21:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 72.23%EV -9.24%E -7.51%K -40.18%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.46%EV -18.71%E -1.78%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.31%EV -15.03%E -3.27%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-12 21:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 72.23%EV -9.24%E -7.51%K -40.18%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.46%EV -18.71%E -1.78%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.31%EV -15.03%E -3.27%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-12 21:50 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (4)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.52% | 16.50I 6.06%NM 6.03% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.45% | 0.5% | 2026-08-12 21:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.90% | 16.50I 6.06%NM 6.03% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.08% | 0.6% | 2026-08-12 21:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.90% | 16.50I 6.06%NM 6.03% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.08% | 0.6% | 2026-08-12 21:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.28% | 16.50I 6.06%NM 6.01% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.71% | 0.8% | 2026-08-12 21:55 |