Language:English
Libertad Asuncion v Independiente del Valle
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Libertad Asuncion (Local)
Prediction 34.23%2.92fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -0.859%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.76%34.23%34.25%35.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.702.702.8541.67%37.06%37.04%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Independiente del Valle (Visit)
Prediction 35.32%2.83fair odd
EV -3.23%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -1.86%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.74
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.48%35.36%34.96%36.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.582.602.7442.55%38.76%38.46%36.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.45%3.28fair odd
EV +2.02%
Edge +0.603%
Kelly +0.860%
Growth +0.017%
assuming max odds 3.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.78%30.40%30.79%31.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.063.073.3536.36%32.64%32.57%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Libertad Asuncion (Local): 34.23%; Independiente del Valle (Visit): 35.32%; Draw: 30.45%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.28. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.02%.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 34.17%EV -2.45%E -0.859%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.75%EV -6.41%E -2.42%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.07%EV +2.02%E +0.603%K +0.860%G +0.017% | 2.7% | 2026-04-17 18:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 34.17%EV -2.45%E -0.859%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.75%EV -6.41%E -2.42%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.07%EV +2.02%E +0.603%K +0.860%G +0.017% | 2.7% | 2026-04-17 18:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -5.87%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.98%EV -6.41%E -2.42%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.34%EV -1.03%E -0.315%K -0.456%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-21 16:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -5.87%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -8.18%E -3.14%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -1.03%E -0.315%K -0.456%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-17 18:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -5.87%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -9.94%E -3.90%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -2.55%E -0.796%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-17 18:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -5.87%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -9.94%E -3.90%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -2.55%E -0.796%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-17 18:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -5.87%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -9.94%E -3.90%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -2.55%E -0.796%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-17 18:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -5.87%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -9.94%E -3.90%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -2.55%E -0.796%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-17 18:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -7.58%E -2.81%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -9.94%E -3.90%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -2.55%E -0.796%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-17 18:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.18%EV -4.16%E -1.49%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.44%EV -4.64%E -1.72%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.38%EV -4.07%E -1.29%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-21 17:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.18%EV -4.16%E -1.49%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.44%EV -4.64%E -1.72%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.38%EV -4.07%E -1.29%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-23 18:49 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -7.58%E -2.81%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.86%EV -8.18%E -3.14%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -4.07%E -1.29%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-21 12:04 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.96%EV -9.29%E -3.51%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.63%EV -8.18%E -3.14%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -4.07%E -1.29%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-21 11:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.73I 36.63%NM 34.56%EV -6.55%E -2.40%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.20%EV -5.35%E -2.00%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.24%EV -4.98%E -1.60%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-22 00:49 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 34.03%EV -3.47%E -1.23%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.02%EV -3.23%E -1.18%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.95%EV -5.59%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-24 00:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -7.58%E -2.81%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -8.18%E -3.14%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -5.59%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-24 00:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -5.87%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -11.71%E -4.68%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -5.59%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-20 23:04 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.05%EV -10.32%E -3.94%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -8.18%E -3.14%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -5.59%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-21 12:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -7.58%E -2.81%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -11.71%E -4.68%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -5.59%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-23 22:03 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.21%EV -9.29%E -3.51%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 36.55%EV -12.41%E -5.01%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.24%EV -5.59%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-17 18:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.21%EV -9.29%E -3.51%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 36.55%EV -12.41%E -5.01%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.24%EV -5.59%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-17 18:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.21%EV -9.29%E -3.51%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 36.55%EV -12.41%E -5.01%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.24%EV -5.59%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-17 18:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.89%EV -4.16%E -1.49%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.89%EV -3.94%E -1.45%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.22%EV -7.42%E -2.44%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-21 12:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.93%EV -4.84%E -1.74%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.64%E -1.72%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.13%EV -7.72%E -2.55%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 18:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.93%EV -4.84%E -1.74%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.64%E -1.72%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.13%EV -7.72%E -2.55%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 18:44 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.36%EV -11.00%E -4.23%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 36.16%EV -12.77%E -5.17%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 29.48%EV -7.72%E -2.55%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-21 11:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.74I 36.50%NM 34.04%EV -6.21%E -2.27%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.07%EV -6.06%E -2.28%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 30.89%EV -8.03%E -2.66%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-24 00:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -7.58%E -2.81%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -4.64%E -1.72%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.64%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-21 12:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -11.00%E -4.23%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -11.71%E -4.68%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -8.64%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-04-21 17:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -11.00%E -4.23%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -11.71%E -4.68%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -8.64%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-04-21 17:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -11.00%E -4.23%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -11.71%E -4.68%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -8.64%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-04-21 17:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -11.00%E -4.23%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -11.71%E -4.68%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -8.64%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-04-21 17:38 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 35.24%EV -16.14%E -6.59%K -11.13%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 35.98%EV -15.24%E -6.35%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.78%EV -8.64%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 15.8% | 2026-04-21 12:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.67%EV -4.84%E -1.74%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 34.92%EV -5.35%E -2.00%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.41%EV -9.25%E -3.10%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-21 12:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.67%EV -4.84%E -1.74%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 34.92%EV -5.35%E -2.00%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.41%EV -9.25%E -3.10%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-21 16:40 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 2.71I 36.90%NM 33.87%EV -7.24%E -2.67%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.90%EV -7.12%E -2.71%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.22%EV -10.47%E -3.56%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-23 12:52 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -5.87%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.75%EV -6.41%E -2.42%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -11.68%E -4.03%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-21 22:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -7.58%E -2.81%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.47%E -2.85%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -11.68%E -4.03%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-21 12:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -7.58%E -2.81%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.47%E -2.85%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -11.68%E -4.03%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-21 12:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -7.58%E -2.81%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.47%E -2.85%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -11.68%E -4.03%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-21 12:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -7.58%E -2.81%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.47%E -2.85%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -11.68%E -4.03%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-21 12:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 34.18%EV -14.43%E -5.77%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 36.36%EV -17.01%E -7.24%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.46%EV -11.68%E -4.03%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 17.0% | 2026-04-22 22:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 35.10%EV -17.85%E -7.44%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 35.85%EV -17.01%E -7.24%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.05%EV -11.68%E -4.03%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 18.7% | 2026-04-21 12:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 32.76%EV -9.98%E -3.79%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 35.90%EV -15.24%E -6.35%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.33%EV -16.25%E -5.91%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 16.1% | 2026-04-20 23:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 34.76% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 35.61% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 29.63% | 13.2% | 2026-04-21 22:05 |