La escuela de los momios

Libertad Asuncion v Independiente del Valle

Inicio: 2026-04-28 22:00 UTC

Final: Libertad Asuncion 2–3 Independiente del Valle

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

44 corredores (11 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Libertad Asuncion (Local)

Predicción 34.23%2.92momio equitativo
EV -2.45%
Ventaja -0.859%
Kelly -1.32%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.76%34.23%34.25%35.24%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.402.702.702.8541.67%37.06%37.04%35.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Independiente del Valle (Visitante)

Predicción 35.32%2.83momio equitativo
EV -3.23%
Ventaja -1.18%
Kelly -1.86%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.74

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.48%35.36%34.96%36.83%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.352.582.602.7442.55%38.76%38.46%36.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 30.45%3.28momio equitativo
EV +2.02%
Ventaja +0.603%
Kelly +0.860%
Crecimiento +0.017%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.78%30.40%30.79%31.76%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.753.063.073.3536.36%32.64%32.57%29.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (44 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Svenska Spel2.85I 35.09%NM 34.17%EV -2.45%E -0.859%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.75%EV -6.41%E -2.42%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.07%EV +2.02%E +0.603%K +0.860%G +0.017%2.7%2026-04-17 18:49
ATG (SE)2.85I 35.09%NM 34.17%EV -2.45%E -0.859%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.75%EV -6.41%E -2.42%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.07%EV +2.02%E +0.603%K +0.860%G +0.017%2.7%2026-04-17 18:50
Coolbet2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -5.87%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.98%EV -6.41%E -2.42%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.34%EV -1.03%E -0.315%K -0.456%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-21 16:45
BetRivers2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -5.87%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -8.18%E -3.14%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -1.03%E -0.315%K -0.456%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-17 18:50
Unibet (NL)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -5.87%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -9.94%E -3.90%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -2.55%E -0.796%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-17 18:49
Casumo2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -5.87%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -9.94%E -3.90%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -2.55%E -0.796%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-17 18:50
Grosvenor2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -5.87%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -9.94%E -3.90%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -2.55%E -0.796%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-17 18:49
Unibet2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -5.87%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -9.94%E -3.90%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -2.55%E -0.796%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-17 18:49
LeoVegas (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -7.58%E -2.81%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -9.94%E -3.90%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -2.55%E -0.796%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-17 18:50
Bovada2.80I 35.71%NM 34.18%EV -4.16%E -1.49%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.44%EV -4.64%E -1.72%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.38%EV -4.07%E -1.29%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-21 17:40
BetUS2.80I 35.71%NM 34.18%EV -4.16%E -1.49%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.44%EV -4.64%E -1.72%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.38%EV -4.07%E -1.29%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-23 18:49
Betr (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -7.58%E -2.81%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.86%EV -8.18%E -3.14%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -4.07%E -1.29%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-21 12:04
theScore Bet2.65I 37.74%NM 34.96%EV -9.29%E -3.51%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.63%EV -8.18%E -3.14%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -4.07%E -1.29%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 11:59
GTbets2.73I 36.63%NM 34.56%EV -6.55%E -2.40%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.20%EV -5.35%E -2.00%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.24%EV -4.98%E -1.60%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 00:49
1xBet2.82I 35.46%NM 34.03%EV -3.47%E -1.23%K -1.91%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.02%EV -3.23%E -1.18%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.95%EV -5.59%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-24 00:09
PointsBet (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -7.58%E -2.81%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -8.18%E -3.14%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -5.59%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-24 00:44
SportsBet2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -5.87%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -11.71%E -4.68%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -5.59%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-20 23:04
betfred_uk2.62I 38.17%NM 35.05%EV -10.32%E -3.94%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -8.18%E -3.14%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -5.59%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-21 12:05
Paddy Power2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -7.58%E -2.81%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -11.71%E -4.68%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -5.59%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 22:03
LiveScore Bet2.65I 37.74%NM 34.21%EV -9.29%E -3.51%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.55%EV -12.41%E -5.01%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.24%EV -5.59%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-17 18:50
PMU (FR)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.21%EV -9.29%E -3.51%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.55%EV -12.41%E -5.01%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.24%EV -5.59%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-17 18:49
Virgin Bet2.65I 37.74%NM 34.21%EV -9.29%E -3.51%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.55%EV -12.41%E -5.01%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.24%EV -5.59%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-17 18:49
Pinnacle2.80I 35.71%NM 33.89%EV -4.16%E -1.49%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.89%EV -3.94%E -1.45%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.22%EV -7.42%E -2.44%K -3.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-21 12:35
LowVig.ag2.78I 35.97%NM 33.93%EV -4.84%E -1.74%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.64%E -1.72%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.13%EV -7.72%E -2.55%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 18:45
BetOnline.ag2.78I 35.97%NM 33.93%EV -4.84%E -1.74%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.64%E -1.72%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.13%EV -7.72%E -2.55%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 18:44
Betclic (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 34.36%EV -11.00%E -4.23%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 36.16%EV -12.77%E -5.17%K -8.69%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 29.48%EV -7.72%E -2.55%K -3.81%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-21 11:59
Marathon Bet2.74I 36.50%NM 34.04%EV -6.21%E -2.27%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.07%EV -6.06%E -2.28%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.89%EV -8.03%E -2.66%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-24 00:04
Betway2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -7.58%E -2.81%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -4.64%E -1.72%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.64%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-21 12:00
Ladbrokes (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -11.00%E -4.23%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -11.71%E -4.68%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -8.64%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-21 17:40
Ladbrokes (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -11.00%E -4.23%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -11.71%E -4.68%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -8.64%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-21 17:40
Neds2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -11.00%E -4.23%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -11.71%E -4.68%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -8.64%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-21 17:40
Coral2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -11.00%E -4.23%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -11.71%E -4.68%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -8.64%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-21 17:38
Winamax (DE)2.45I 40.82%NM 35.24%EV -16.14%E -6.59%K -11.13%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.98%EV -15.24%E -6.35%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.78%EV -8.64%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%15.8%2026-04-21 12:00
NordicBet2.78I 35.97%NM 33.67%EV -4.84%E -1.74%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.92%EV -5.35%E -2.00%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.41%EV -9.25%E -3.10%K -4.67%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-21 12:35
Betsson2.78I 35.97%NM 33.67%EV -4.84%E -1.74%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.92%EV -5.35%E -2.00%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.41%EV -9.25%E -3.10%K -4.67%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-21 16:40
Suprabets2.71I 36.90%NM 33.87%EV -7.24%E -2.67%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.90%EV -7.12%E -2.71%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.22%EV -10.47%E -3.56%K -5.39%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-23 12:52
PlayUp2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -5.87%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.75%EV -6.41%E -2.42%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -11.68%E -4.03%K -6.15%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-21 22:05
888sport2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -7.58%E -2.81%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.47%E -2.85%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -11.68%E -4.03%K -6.15%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-21 12:10
William Hill2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -7.58%E -2.81%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.47%E -2.85%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -11.68%E -4.03%K -6.15%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-21 12:10
888sport (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -7.58%E -2.81%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.47%E -2.85%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -11.68%E -4.03%K -6.15%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-21 12:10
Mr Green (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -7.58%E -2.81%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.47%E -2.85%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -11.68%E -4.03%K -6.15%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-21 12:10
Unibet (FR)2.50I 40.00%NM 34.18%EV -14.43%E -5.77%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.36%EV -17.01%E -7.24%K -12.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.46%EV -11.68%E -4.03%K -6.15%G +0.000%17.0%2026-04-22 22:05
Winamax (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 35.10%EV -17.85%E -7.44%K -12.75%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 35.85%EV -17.01%E -7.24%K -12.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.05%EV -11.68%E -4.03%K -6.15%G +0.000%18.7%2026-04-21 12:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.63I 38.02%NM 32.76%EV -9.98%E -3.79%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.90%EV -15.24%E -6.35%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.33%EV -16.25%E -5.91%K -9.29%G +0.000%16.1%2026-04-20 23:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (1)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets2.54I 39.37%NM 34.76%2.48I 40.32%NM 35.61%2.98I 33.56%NM 29.63%13.2%2026-04-21 22:05