Language:English
LDU Quito v Mirassol
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
LDU Quito (Local)
Prediction 54.67%1.83fair odd
EV -4.87%
Edge -2.80%
Kelly -6.59%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.74
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.72%54.82%54.72%58.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.681.681.7464.10%59.67%59.52%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Mirassol (Visit)
Prediction 19.96%5.01fair odd
EV +7.80%
Edge +1.44%
Kelly +1.77%
Growth +0.138%
assuming max odds 5.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.08%19.87%19.84%21.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.764.755.4023.81%21.00%21.05%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.37%3.94fair odd
EV +4.01%
Edge +0.977%
Kelly +1.29%
Growth +0.052%
assuming max odds 4.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.81%25.30%25.44%27.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.683.704.1032.26%27.15%27.03%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: LDU Quito (Local): 54.67%; Mirassol (Visit): 19.96%; Draw: 25.37%. For Mirassol (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.01. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.80%.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.11%EV -8.15%E -4.85%K -11.99%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.08%EV +7.80%E +1.44%K +1.77%G +0.138% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.81%EV +4.01%E +0.977%K +1.29%G +0.052% | 2.4% | 2026-04-15 01:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.11%EV -8.15%E -4.85%K -11.99%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.08%EV +7.80%E +1.44%K +1.77%G +0.138% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.81%EV +4.01%E +0.977%K +1.29%G +0.052% | 2.4% | 2026-04-15 01:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.78%EV -10.34%E -6.31%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.22%EV +3.80%E +0.732%K +0.906%G +0.034% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.99%EV +0.202%E +0.051%K +0.069%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-15 01:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.76%EV -10.89%E -6.68%K -17.28%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.10%EV +3.80%E +0.732%K +0.906%G +0.034% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -1.07%E -0.273%K -0.368%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-15 01:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.76%EV -10.89%E -6.68%K -17.28%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.10%EV +3.80%E +0.732%K +0.906%G +0.034% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -1.07%E -0.273%K -0.368%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-15 01:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.76%EV -10.89%E -6.68%K -17.28%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.10%EV +3.80%E +0.732%K +0.906%G +0.034% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -1.07%E -0.273%K -0.368%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-15 01:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.76%EV -10.89%E -6.68%K -17.28%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.10%EV +3.80%E +0.732%K +0.906%G +0.034% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -1.07%E -0.273%K -0.368%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-15 01:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.70%EV -11.43%E -7.06%K -18.44%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.33%EV +1.81%E +0.355%K +0.441%G +0.008% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -1.07%E -0.273%K -0.368%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-15 01:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.14%EV -5.42%E -3.13%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -0.188%E -0.038%K -0.047%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.78%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-15 01:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -14.17%E -9.02%K -24.86%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -0.188%E -0.038%K -0.047%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -3.60%E -0.948%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-15 01:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -14.17%E -9.02%K -24.86%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -0.188%E -0.038%K -0.047%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -3.60%E -0.948%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-15 01:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.05%EV -14.71%E -9.43%K -26.28%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.11%EV -0.188%E -0.038%K -0.047%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -3.60%E -0.948%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-15 01:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.37%EV -5.97%E -3.47%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.24%EV -1.19%E -0.240%K -0.300%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -4.87%E -1.30%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-14 18:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -8.15%E -4.85%K -11.99%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -1.19%E -0.240%K -0.300%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-14 17:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -8.15%E -4.85%K -11.99%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -1.19%E -0.240%K -0.300%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-14 16:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.16%EV -5.97%E -3.47%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 4.94I 20.24%NM 19.20%EV -1.39%E -0.281%K -0.352%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-15 01:24 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.11%EV -7.06%E -4.15%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 4.91I 20.37%NM 19.08%EV -1.98%E -0.404%K -0.508%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 25.81%EV -7.92%E -2.18%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-15 01:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.70%EV -5.97%E -3.47%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.55%EV -2.18%E -0.446%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 3.87I 25.84%NM 24.75%EV -1.83%E -0.472%K -0.637%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-15 01:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.67%EV -4.87%E -2.80%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.61%EV -3.18%E -0.656%K -0.827%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.71%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 23:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.67%EV -4.87%E -2.80%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.61%EV -3.18%E -0.656%K -0.827%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.71%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-14 23:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.99%EV -9.79%E -5.94%K -15.07%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.05%EV -3.18%E -0.656%K -0.827%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-14 17:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.75%EV -4.87%E -2.80%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.85%EV -4.18%E -0.871%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.40%EV -4.87%E -1.30%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-15 01:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.84%EV -7.06%E -4.15%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -5.18%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV -7.41%E -2.03%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-15 01:55 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.84%EV -7.06%E -4.15%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -5.18%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV -7.41%E -2.03%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-15 01:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -7.06%E -4.15%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -6.18%E -1.31%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.23%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-15 01:25 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -7.06%E -4.15%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -6.18%E -1.31%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.23%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-15 01:52 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -5.97%E -3.47%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -8.17%E -1.78%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-15 01:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.25%EV -7.61%E -4.50%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.93%EV -8.17%E -1.78%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.82%EV -9.94%E -2.80%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-15 01:35 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%EV -8.70%E -5.21%K -12.99%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -8.17%E -1.78%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -8.68%E -2.41%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-15 01:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.18%EV -5.42%E -3.13%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -10.17%E -2.26%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -4.87%E -1.30%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-15 01:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.43%EV -7.06%E -4.15%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -10.17%E -2.26%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-15 01:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -6.51%E -3.81%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -10.17%E -2.26%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -8.68%E -2.41%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-15 01:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.23%EV -5.42%E -3.13%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%EV -10.17%E -2.26%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -11.21%E -3.20%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-15 01:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.23%EV -5.42%E -3.13%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%EV -10.17%E -2.26%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -11.21%E -3.20%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-15 01:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.23%EV -5.42%E -3.13%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%EV -10.17%E -2.26%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -11.21%E -3.20%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-15 01:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.23%EV -5.42%E -3.13%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%EV -10.17%E -2.26%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -11.21%E -3.20%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-15 01:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.29%EV -8.15%E -4.85%K -11.99%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -12.17%E -2.76%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -7.41%E -2.03%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-15 01:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.25%EV -8.70%E -5.21%K -12.99%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -12.17%E -2.76%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -8.68%E -2.41%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-15 01:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.16%EV -9.79%E -5.94%K -15.07%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -12.17%E -2.76%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.21%E -3.20%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-15 01:24 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.16%EV -9.79%E -5.94%K -15.07%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -12.17%E -2.76%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.21%E -3.20%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-15 01:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.16%EV -9.79%E -5.94%K -15.07%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -12.17%E -2.76%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.21%E -3.20%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-15 01:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.16%EV -9.79%E -5.94%K -15.07%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -12.17%E -2.76%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.21%E -3.20%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-15 01:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 54.03%EV -11.98%E -7.44%K -19.64%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.00%EV -13.16%E -3.03%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 25.97%EV -15.02%E -4.48%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-04-15 01:34 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 52.72%EV -11.43%E -7.06%K -18.44%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 19.73%EV -13.56%E -3.13%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.55%EV -21.36%E -6.89%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 17.1% | 2026-04-15 01:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 53.79%EV -10.34%E -6.31%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.00%EV -16.16%E -3.85%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.20%EV -11.21%E -3.20%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-04-15 01:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 55.11% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.95% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.94% | 0.2% | 2026-04-15 01:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.94% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.89% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.17% | 0.6% | 2026-04-15 01:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.94% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.89% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.17% | 0.6% | 2026-04-15 01:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 54.68% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.09% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.24% | 1.6% | 2026-04-15 01:55 |