L’École des cotes

LDU Quito v Mirassol

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-15 02:00 UTC

Score final : LDU Quito 2–0 Mirassol

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

45 opérateurs (12 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

LDU Quito (Local)

Prévision 54.67%1.83cote équitable
EV -4.87%
Avantage -2.80%
Kelly -6.59%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.74

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
52.72%54.82%54.72%58.11%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.561.681.681.7464.10%59.67%59.52%57.47%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Mirassol (Visiteur)

Prévision 19.96%5.01cote équitable
EV +7.80%
Avantage +1.44%
Kelly +1.77%
Croissance +0.138%

avec la cote maximale 5.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
18.08%19.87%19.84%21.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.204.764.755.4023.81%21.00%21.05%18.52%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 25.37%3.94cote équitable
EV +4.01%
Avantage +0.977%
Kelly +1.29%
Croissance +0.052%

avec la cote maximale 4.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.81%25.30%25.44%27.55%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.683.704.1032.26%27.15%27.03%24.39%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (45 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Svenska Spel1.68I 59.52%NM 58.11%EV -8.15%E -4.85%K -11.99%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.08%EV +7.80%E +1.44%K +1.77%G +0.138%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.81%EV +4.01%E +0.977%K +1.29%G +0.052%2.4%2026-04-15 01:20
ATG (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 58.11%EV -8.15%E -4.85%K -11.99%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.08%EV +7.80%E +1.44%K +1.77%G +0.138%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.81%EV +4.01%E +0.977%K +1.29%G +0.052%2.4%2026-04-15 01:19
BetRivers1.64I 60.98%NM 57.78%EV -10.34%E -6.31%K -16.16%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.22%EV +3.80%E +0.732%K +0.906%G +0.034%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.99%EV +0.202%E +0.051%K +0.069%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-15 01:19
Casumo1.63I 61.35%NM 57.76%EV -10.89%E -6.68%K -17.28%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.10%EV +3.80%E +0.732%K +0.906%G +0.034%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -1.07%E -0.273%K -0.368%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-15 01:19
Unibet (NL)1.63I 61.35%NM 57.76%EV -10.89%E -6.68%K -17.28%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.10%EV +3.80%E +0.732%K +0.906%G +0.034%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -1.07%E -0.273%K -0.368%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-15 01:19
Grosvenor1.63I 61.35%NM 57.76%EV -10.89%E -6.68%K -17.28%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.10%EV +3.80%E +0.732%K +0.906%G +0.034%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -1.07%E -0.273%K -0.368%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-15 01:20
Unibet1.63I 61.35%NM 57.76%EV -10.89%E -6.68%K -17.28%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.10%EV +3.80%E +0.732%K +0.906%G +0.034%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -1.07%E -0.273%K -0.368%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-15 01:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.70%EV -11.43%E -7.06%K -18.44%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.33%EV +1.81%E +0.355%K +0.441%G +0.008%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -1.07%E -0.273%K -0.368%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-15 01:19
BetUS1.73I 57.80%NM 55.14%EV -5.42%E -3.13%K -7.43%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -0.188%E -0.038%K -0.047%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.78%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-15 01:55
Virgin Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -14.17%E -9.02%K -24.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -0.188%E -0.038%K -0.047%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -3.60%E -0.948%K -1.29%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-15 01:20
LiveScore Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -14.17%E -9.02%K -24.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -0.188%E -0.038%K -0.047%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -3.60%E -0.948%K -1.29%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-15 01:20
PMU (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 58.05%EV -14.71%E -9.43%K -26.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.11%EV -0.188%E -0.038%K -0.047%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -3.60%E -0.948%K -1.29%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-15 01:19
Coolbet1.72I 58.14%NM 55.37%EV -5.97%E -3.47%K -8.29%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.24%EV -1.19%E -0.240%K -0.300%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -4.87%E -1.30%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-14 18:50
Betsson1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -8.15%E -4.85%K -11.99%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -1.19%E -0.240%K -0.300%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-14 17:00
NordicBet1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -8.15%E -4.85%K -11.99%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -1.19%E -0.240%K -0.300%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-14 16:59
GTbets1.72I 58.14%NM 55.16%EV -5.97%E -3.47%K -8.29%G +0.000%4.94I 20.24%NM 19.20%EV -1.39%E -0.281%K -0.352%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-15 01:24
1xBet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.11%EV -7.06%E -4.15%K -10.09%G +0.000%4.91I 20.37%NM 19.08%EV -1.98%E -0.404%K -0.508%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.81%EV -7.92%E -2.18%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-15 01:54
Pinnacle1.72I 58.14%NM 55.70%EV -5.97%E -3.47%K -8.29%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.55%EV -2.18%E -0.446%K -0.560%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.75%EV -1.83%E -0.472%K -0.637%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-15 01:50
LowVig.ag1.74I 57.47%NM 54.67%EV -4.87%E -2.80%K -6.59%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.61%EV -3.18%E -0.656%K -0.827%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.71%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-14 23:45
BetOnline.ag1.74I 57.47%NM 54.67%EV -4.87%E -2.80%K -6.59%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.61%EV -3.18%E -0.656%K -0.827%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.71%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-14 23:45
PlayUp1.65I 60.61%NM 55.99%EV -9.79%E -5.94%K -15.07%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.05%EV -3.18%E -0.656%K -0.827%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-14 17:00
Bovada1.74I 57.47%NM 54.75%EV -4.87%E -2.80%K -6.59%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.85%EV -4.18%E -0.871%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.40%EV -4.87%E -1.30%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-15 01:54
Marathon Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 54.84%EV -7.06%E -4.15%K -10.09%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -5.18%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV -7.41%E -2.03%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-15 01:55
Everygame1.70I 58.82%NM 54.84%EV -7.06%E -4.15%K -10.09%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -5.18%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV -7.41%E -2.03%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-15 01:55
Betr (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -7.06%E -4.15%K -10.09%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -6.18%E -1.31%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.23%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-15 01:25
Suprabets1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -7.06%E -4.15%K -10.09%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -6.18%E -1.31%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.23%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-15 01:52
SportsBet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -5.97%E -3.47%K -8.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -8.17%E -1.78%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-15 01:55
Codere (IT)1.69I 59.17%NM 54.25%EV -7.61%E -4.50%K -11.03%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.93%EV -8.17%E -1.78%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.82%EV -9.94%E -2.80%K -3.90%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-15 01:35
betfred_uk1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%EV -8.70%E -5.21%K -12.99%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -8.17%E -1.78%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -8.68%E -2.41%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-15 01:25
Betway1.73I 57.80%NM 54.18%EV -5.42%E -3.13%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -10.17%E -2.26%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -4.87%E -1.30%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-15 01:35
PointsBet (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.43%EV -7.06%E -4.15%K -10.09%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -10.17%E -2.26%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -6.14%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-15 01:25
theScore Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -6.51%E -3.81%K -9.18%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -10.17%E -2.26%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -8.68%E -2.41%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-15 01:35
888sport1.73I 57.80%NM 53.23%EV -5.42%E -3.13%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%EV -10.17%E -2.26%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -11.21%E -3.20%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-15 01:55
William Hill1.73I 57.80%NM 53.23%EV -5.42%E -3.13%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%EV -10.17%E -2.26%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -11.21%E -3.20%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-15 01:54
Mr Green (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 53.23%EV -5.42%E -3.13%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%EV -10.17%E -2.26%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -11.21%E -3.20%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-15 01:55
888sport (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 53.23%EV -5.42%E -3.13%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%EV -10.17%E -2.26%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -11.21%E -3.20%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-15 01:54
Winamax (DE)1.68I 59.52%NM 54.29%EV -8.15%E -4.85%K -11.99%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -12.17%E -2.76%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -7.41%E -2.03%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-15 01:35
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 54.25%EV -8.70%E -5.21%K -12.99%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -12.17%E -2.76%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -8.68%E -2.41%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-15 01:55
Ladbrokes (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 54.16%EV -9.79%E -5.94%K -15.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -12.17%E -2.76%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.21%E -3.20%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-15 01:24
Neds1.65I 60.61%NM 54.16%EV -9.79%E -5.94%K -15.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -12.17%E -2.76%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.21%E -3.20%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-15 01:24
Ladbrokes (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 54.16%EV -9.79%E -5.94%K -15.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -12.17%E -2.76%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.21%E -3.20%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-15 01:24
Coral1.65I 60.61%NM 54.16%EV -9.79%E -5.94%K -15.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -12.17%E -2.76%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.21%E -3.20%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-15 01:25
Unibet (FR)1.61I 62.11%NM 54.03%EV -11.98%E -7.44%K -19.64%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.00%EV -13.16%E -3.03%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.97%EV -15.02%E -4.48%K -6.39%G +0.000%15.0%2026-04-15 01:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 52.72%EV -11.43%E -7.06%K -18.44%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.73%EV -13.56%E -3.13%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.55%EV -21.36%E -6.89%K -10.17%G +0.000%17.1%2026-04-15 01:55
Winamax (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 53.79%EV -10.34%E -6.31%K -16.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.00%EV -16.16%E -3.85%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.20%EV -11.21%E -3.20%K -4.49%G +0.000%13.4%2026-04-15 01:34
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (4)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.81I 55.25%NM 55.11%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.95%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.94%0.2%2026-04-15 01:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.81I 55.25%NM 54.94%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.89%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.17%0.6%2026-04-15 01:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.81I 55.25%NM 54.94%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.89%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.17%0.6%2026-04-15 01:50
Smarkets1.80I 55.56%NM 54.68%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.09%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.24%1.6%2026-04-15 01:55