Language:English
Flamengo-RJ v Independiente Medellín
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Flamengo-RJ (Local)
Prediction 79.38%1.26fair odd
EV -3.95%
Edge -3.27%
Kelly -18.83%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.21
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.06%79.42%79.38%83.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.091.161.171.2191.74%86.09%85.47%82.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Independiente Medellín (Visit)
Prediction 6.54%15.30fair odd
EV +24.19%
Edge +1.27%
Kelly +1.34%
Growth +0.325%
assuming max odds 19.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.10%6.60%6.36%8.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0014.5914.2219.0010.00%6.85%7.03%5.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 14.09%7.10fair odd
EV +19.74%
Edge +2.32%
Kelly +2.63%
Growth +0.519%
assuming max odds 8.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.40%13.98%14.27%16.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.826.508.5018.18%14.66%15.38%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Flamengo-RJ (Local): 79.38%; Independiente Medellín (Visit): 6.54%; Draw: 14.09%. For Independiente Medellín (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 15.30. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 19.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +24.19%.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.51%EV -7.92%E -6.83%K -49.51%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.10%EV +24.19%E +1.27%K +1.34%G +0.325% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.40%EV +19.74%E +2.32%K +2.63%G +0.519% | 3.2% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.51%EV -7.92%E -6.83%K -49.51%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.10%EV +24.19%E +1.27%K +1.34%G +0.325% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.40%EV +19.74%E +2.32%K +2.63%G +0.519% | 3.2% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.18%EV -11.10%E -9.91%K -92.48%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.18%EV +17.65%E +0.981%K +1.04%G +0.183% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV +12.69%E +1.59%K +1.81%G +0.230% | 7.3% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.18%EV -11.10%E -9.91%K -92.48%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.18%EV +17.65%E +0.981%K +1.04%G +0.183% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV +12.69%E +1.59%K +1.81%G +0.230% | 7.3% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.18%EV -11.10%E -9.91%K -92.48%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.18%EV +17.65%E +0.981%K +1.04%G +0.183% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV +12.69%E +1.59%K +1.81%G +0.230% | 7.3% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.18%EV -11.10%E -9.91%K -92.48%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.18%EV +17.65%E +0.981%K +1.04%G +0.183% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV +12.69%E +1.59%K +1.81%G +0.230% | 7.3% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.18%EV -11.10%E -9.91%K -92.48%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.18%EV +17.65%E +0.981%K +1.04%G +0.183% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV +12.69%E +1.59%K +1.81%G +0.230% | 7.3% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -6.33%E -5.37%K -35.19%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.36%EV -1.96%E -0.130%K -0.140%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.73%EV +5.65%E +0.753%K +0.869%G +0.049% | 4.7% | 2026-04-17 00:28 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 82.68%EV -13.48%E -12.37%K -149.76%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.30%EV +11.11%E +0.654%K +0.695%G +0.077% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.02%EV +5.65%E +0.753%K +0.869%G +0.049% | 11.0% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 82.68%EV -13.48%E -12.37%K -149.76%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.30%EV +11.11%E +0.654%K +0.695%G +0.077% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.02%EV +5.65%E +0.753%K +0.869%G +0.049% | 11.0% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 82.68%EV -13.48%E -12.37%K -149.76%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.30%EV +11.11%E +0.654%K +0.695%G +0.077% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.02%EV +5.65%E +0.753%K +0.869%G +0.049% | 11.0% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.16%EV -5.54%E -4.66%K -29.16%G +0.000% | 14.21I 7.04%NM 6.71%EV -7.12%E -0.501%K -0.539%G +0.000% | 7.27I 13.76%NM 13.12%EV +2.41%E +0.331%K +0.384%G +0.009% | 4.8% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.55%EV -6.33%E -5.37%K -35.19%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.34%EV -1.96%E -0.130%K -0.140%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.11%EV +2.13%E +0.293%K +0.340%G +0.007% | 5.2% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.55%EV -6.33%E -5.37%K -35.19%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.34%EV -1.96%E -0.130%K -0.140%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.11%EV +2.13%E +0.293%K +0.340%G +0.007% | 5.2% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.20%EV -8.72%E -7.58%K -58.11%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.84%EV +4.58%E +0.286%K +0.305%G +0.014% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.97%EV +1.42%E +0.198%K +0.230%G +0.003% | 7.1% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.31%EV -9.51%E -8.34%K -67.93%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.45%EV +11.11%E +0.654%K +0.695%G +0.077% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -1.39%E -0.199%K -0.232%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.68%EV -7.92%E -6.83%K -49.51%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.11%EV -15.03%E -1.16%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.20%EV -1.39%E -0.199%K -0.232%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.52%EV -5.54%E -4.66%K -29.16%G +0.000% | 14.20I 7.04%NM 6.66%EV -7.19%E -0.506%K -0.544%G +0.000% | 6.85I 14.60%NM 13.81%EV -3.51%E -0.512%K -0.599%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.01%EV -3.95%E -3.27%K -18.83%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.83%EV -8.49%E -0.607%K -0.653%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.16%EV -4.92%E -0.728%K -0.855%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-17 00:28 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.37%EV -6.33%E -5.37%K -35.19%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV +11.11%E +0.654%K +0.695%G +0.077% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.05%EV -4.92%E -0.728%K -0.855%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-17 00:16 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.35%EV -6.33%E -5.37%K -35.19%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -1.96%E -0.130%K -0.140%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -8.44%E -1.30%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.35%EV -6.33%E -5.37%K -35.19%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -1.96%E -0.130%K -0.140%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -8.44%E -1.30%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.84%EV -4.75%E -3.96%K -23.74%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -21.57%E -1.80%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -8.44%E -1.30%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -7.13%E -6.09%K -41.93%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV -1.96%E -0.130%K -0.140%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -8.44%E -1.30%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -6.33%E -5.37%K -35.19%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -15.03%E -1.16%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -8.44%E -1.30%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -6.33%E -5.37%K -35.19%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -15.03%E -1.16%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -8.44%E -1.30%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -6.33%E -5.37%K -35.19%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -15.03%E -1.16%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -8.44%E -1.30%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.74%EV -7.13%E -6.09%K -41.93%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.09%EV -15.03%E -1.16%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -8.44%E -1.30%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.28%EV -7.13%E -6.09%K -41.93%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.63%EV -21.57%E -1.80%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -8.44%E -1.30%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 80.00%EV -11.89%E -10.71%K -108.10%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.34%EV -8.49%E -0.607%K -0.653%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.66%EV -8.44%E -1.30%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.04%EV -6.33%E -5.37%K -35.19%G +0.000% | 14.20I 7.04%NM 6.57%EV -7.19%E -0.506%K -0.544%G +0.000% | 6.48I 15.43%NM 14.39%EV -8.72%E -1.35%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.76%EV -7.13%E -6.09%K -41.93%G +0.000% | 16.50I 6.06%NM 5.66%EV +7.85%E +0.476%K +0.506%G +0.040% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.58%EV -9.85%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-17 00:28 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.76%EV -7.13%E -6.09%K -41.93%G +0.000% | 16.50I 6.06%NM 5.66%EV +7.85%E +0.476%K +0.506%G +0.040% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.58%EV -9.85%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-17 00:28 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.57%EV -7.13%E -6.09%K -41.93%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV -15.03%E -1.16%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.36%EV -9.85%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.81%EV -7.92%E -6.83%K -49.51%G +0.000% | 13.25I 7.55%NM 6.90%EV -13.40%E -1.01%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.29%EV -9.85%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -6.33%E -5.37%K -35.19%G +0.000% | 14.22I 7.03%NM 6.54%EV -7.06%E -0.496%K -0.534%G +0.000% | 6.37I 15.70%NM 14.61%EV -10.27%E -1.61%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.27%EV -5.54%E -4.66%K -29.16%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.21%EV -1.96%E -0.130%K -0.140%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -15.48%E -2.58%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-17 00:28 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.38%EV -4.75%E -3.96%K -23.74%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -15.03%E -1.16%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -15.48%E -2.58%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 76.82%EV -5.54%E -4.66%K -29.16%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.95%EV -24.83%E -2.16%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.24%EV -15.48%E -2.58%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -6.33%E -5.37%K -35.19%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -34.64%E -3.46%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -15.48%E -2.58%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -6.33%E -5.37%K -35.19%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -34.64%E -3.46%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -15.48%E -2.58%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -6.33%E -5.37%K -35.19%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -34.64%E -3.46%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -15.48%E -2.58%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -6.33%E -5.37%K -35.19%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -34.64%E -3.46%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -15.48%E -2.58%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 76.66%EV -10.30%E -9.12%K -79.26%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 7.87%EV -28.10%E -2.55%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.47%EV -21.12%E -3.77%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-04-17 00:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 77.60%EV -9.51%E -8.34%K -67.93%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.32%EV -8.49%E -0.607%K -0.653%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.08%EV -22.52%E -4.10%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.58% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.72% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.70% | 0.9% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.58% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.72% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.70% | 0.9% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.58% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.72% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.70% | 0.9% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 82.23% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.89% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.88% | 2.2% | 2026-04-17 00:30 |