A Escola das Odds

Flamengo-RJ v Independiente Medellín

Início: 2026-04-17 00:32 UTC

Final: Flamengo-RJ 4–1 Independiente Medellín

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

45 casas de apostas (13 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Flamengo-RJ (Local)

Previsão 79.38%1.26odd justa
EV -3.95%
Vantagem -3.27%
Kelly -18.83%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.21

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
76.06%79.42%79.38%83.51%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.091.161.171.2191.74%86.09%85.47%82.64%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Independiente Medellín (Visitante)

Previsão 6.54%15.30odd justa
EV +24.19%
Vantagem +1.27%
Kelly +1.34%
Crescimento +0.325%

pressupondo odds máximas de 19.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
5.10%6.60%6.36%8.98%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
10.0014.5914.2219.0010.00%6.85%7.03%5.26%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Empate

Previsão 14.09%7.10odd justa
EV +19.74%
Vantagem +2.32%
Kelly +2.63%
Crescimento +0.519%

pressupondo odds máximas de 8.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
11.40%13.98%14.27%16.08%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
5.506.826.508.5018.18%14.66%15.38%11.76%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (45 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargemAtualização
Svenska Spel1.16I 86.21%NM 83.51%EV -7.92%E -6.83%K -49.51%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.10%EV +24.19%E +1.27%K +1.34%G +0.325%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.40%EV +19.74%E +2.32%K +2.63%G +0.519%3.2%2026-04-17 00:30
ATG (SE)1.16I 86.21%NM 83.51%EV -7.92%E -6.83%K -49.51%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.10%EV +24.19%E +1.27%K +1.34%G +0.325%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.40%EV +19.74%E +2.32%K +2.63%G +0.519%3.2%2026-04-17 00:29
Unibet1.12I 89.29%NM 83.18%EV -11.10%E -9.91%K -92.48%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.18%EV +17.65%E +0.981%K +1.04%G +0.183%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV +12.69%E +1.59%K +1.81%G +0.230%7.3%2026-04-17 00:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.12I 89.29%NM 83.18%EV -11.10%E -9.91%K -92.48%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.18%EV +17.65%E +0.981%K +1.04%G +0.183%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV +12.69%E +1.59%K +1.81%G +0.230%7.3%2026-04-17 00:30
Unibet (NL)1.12I 89.29%NM 83.18%EV -11.10%E -9.91%K -92.48%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.18%EV +17.65%E +0.981%K +1.04%G +0.183%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV +12.69%E +1.59%K +1.81%G +0.230%7.3%2026-04-17 00:30
Casumo1.12I 89.29%NM 83.18%EV -11.10%E -9.91%K -92.48%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.18%EV +17.65%E +0.981%K +1.04%G +0.183%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV +12.69%E +1.59%K +1.81%G +0.230%7.3%2026-04-17 00:30
Grosvenor1.12I 89.29%NM 83.18%EV -11.10%E -9.91%K -92.48%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.18%EV +17.65%E +0.981%K +1.04%G +0.183%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV +12.69%E +1.59%K +1.81%G +0.230%7.3%2026-04-17 00:30
Coolbet1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -6.33%E -5.37%K -35.19%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.36%EV -1.96%E -0.130%K -0.140%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.73%EV +5.65%E +0.753%K +0.869%G +0.049%4.7%2026-04-17 00:28
Virgin Bet1.09I 91.74%NM 82.68%EV -13.48%E -12.37%K -149.76%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.30%EV +11.11%E +0.654%K +0.695%G +0.077%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.02%EV +5.65%E +0.753%K +0.869%G +0.049%11.0%2026-04-17 00:29
LiveScore Bet1.09I 91.74%NM 82.68%EV -13.48%E -12.37%K -149.76%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.30%EV +11.11%E +0.654%K +0.695%G +0.077%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.02%EV +5.65%E +0.753%K +0.869%G +0.049%11.0%2026-04-17 00:29
PMU (FR)1.09I 91.74%NM 82.68%EV -13.48%E -12.37%K -149.76%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.30%EV +11.11%E +0.654%K +0.695%G +0.077%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.02%EV +5.65%E +0.753%K +0.869%G +0.049%11.0%2026-04-17 00:30
Pinnacle1.19I 84.03%NM 80.16%EV -5.54%E -4.66%K -29.16%G +0.000%14.21I 7.04%NM 6.71%EV -7.12%E -0.501%K -0.539%G +0.000%7.27I 13.76%NM 13.12%EV +2.41%E +0.331%K +0.384%G +0.009%4.8%2026-04-17 00:29
BetOnline.ag1.18I 84.75%NM 80.55%EV -6.33%E -5.37%K -35.19%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.34%EV -1.96%E -0.130%K -0.140%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.11%EV +2.13%E +0.293%K +0.340%G +0.007%5.2%2026-04-17 00:30
LowVig.ag1.18I 84.75%NM 80.55%EV -6.33%E -5.37%K -35.19%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.34%EV -1.96%E -0.130%K -0.140%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.11%EV +2.13%E +0.293%K +0.340%G +0.007%5.2%2026-04-17 00:30
Marathon Bet1.15I 86.96%NM 81.20%EV -8.72%E -7.58%K -58.11%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.84%EV +4.58%E +0.286%K +0.305%G +0.014%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.97%EV +1.42%E +0.198%K +0.230%G +0.003%7.1%2026-04-17 00:29
SportsBet1.14I 87.72%NM 81.31%EV -9.51%E -8.34%K -67.93%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.45%EV +11.11%E +0.654%K +0.695%G +0.077%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -1.39%E -0.199%K -0.232%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-17 00:30
Everygame1.16I 86.21%NM 79.68%EV -7.92%E -6.83%K -49.51%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.11%EV -15.03%E -1.16%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.20%EV -1.39%E -0.199%K -0.232%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-17 00:29
BetUS1.19I 84.03%NM 79.52%EV -5.54%E -4.66%K -29.16%G +0.000%14.20I 7.04%NM 6.66%EV -7.19%E -0.506%K -0.544%G +0.000%6.85I 14.60%NM 13.81%EV -3.51%E -0.512%K -0.599%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-17 00:30
Bovada1.21I 82.64%NM 79.01%EV -3.95%E -3.27%K -18.83%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.83%EV -8.49%E -0.607%K -0.653%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.16%EV -4.92%E -0.728%K -0.855%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-17 00:28
BetRivers1.18I 84.75%NM 80.37%EV -6.33%E -5.37%K -35.19%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV +11.11%E +0.654%K +0.695%G +0.077%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.05%EV -4.92%E -0.728%K -0.855%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-17 00:16
Betway1.18I 84.75%NM 79.35%EV -6.33%E -5.37%K -35.19%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -1.96%E -0.130%K -0.140%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -8.44%E -1.30%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-17 00:30
Betr (AU)1.18I 84.75%NM 79.35%EV -6.33%E -5.37%K -35.19%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -1.96%E -0.130%K -0.140%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -8.44%E -1.30%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-17 00:29
theScore Bet1.20I 83.33%NM 77.84%EV -4.75%E -3.96%K -23.74%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -21.57%E -1.80%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -8.44%E -1.30%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-17 00:30
PointsBet (AU)1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -7.13%E -6.09%K -41.93%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV -1.96%E -0.130%K -0.140%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -8.44%E -1.30%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-17 00:29
888sport1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -6.33%E -5.37%K -35.19%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -15.03%E -1.16%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -8.44%E -1.30%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-17 00:29
888sport (SE)1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -6.33%E -5.37%K -35.19%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -15.03%E -1.16%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -8.44%E -1.30%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-17 00:29
Mr Green (SE)1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -6.33%E -5.37%K -35.19%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -15.03%E -1.16%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -8.44%E -1.30%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-17 00:29
betfred_uk1.17I 85.47%NM 78.74%EV -7.13%E -6.09%K -41.93%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.09%EV -15.03%E -1.16%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -8.44%E -1.30%K -1.53%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-17 00:29
Winamax (DE)1.17I 85.47%NM 78.28%EV -7.13%E -6.09%K -41.93%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.63%EV -21.57%E -1.80%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -8.44%E -1.30%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-17 00:30
Paddy Power1.11I 90.09%NM 80.00%EV -11.89%E -10.71%K -108.10%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.34%EV -8.49%E -0.607%K -0.653%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.66%EV -8.44%E -1.30%K -1.53%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-17 00:30
1xBet1.18I 84.75%NM 79.04%EV -6.33%E -5.37%K -35.19%G +0.000%14.20I 7.04%NM 6.57%EV -7.19%E -0.506%K -0.544%G +0.000%6.48I 15.43%NM 14.39%EV -8.72%E -1.35%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-17 00:29
Betsson1.17I 85.47%NM 79.76%EV -7.13%E -6.09%K -41.93%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.66%EV +7.85%E +0.476%K +0.506%G +0.040%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.58%EV -9.85%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-17 00:28
NordicBet1.17I 85.47%NM 79.76%EV -7.13%E -6.09%K -41.93%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.66%EV +7.85%E +0.476%K +0.506%G +0.040%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.58%EV -9.85%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-17 00:28
Codere (IT)1.17I 85.47%NM 78.57%EV -7.13%E -6.09%K -41.93%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV -15.03%E -1.16%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.36%EV -9.85%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-17 00:29
Betclic (FR)1.16I 86.21%NM 78.81%EV -7.92%E -6.83%K -49.51%G +0.000%13.25I 7.55%NM 6.90%EV -13.40%E -1.01%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.29%EV -9.85%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-17 00:29
GTbets1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -6.33%E -5.37%K -35.19%G +0.000%14.22I 7.03%NM 6.54%EV -7.06%E -0.496%K -0.534%G +0.000%6.37I 15.70%NM 14.61%EV -10.27%E -1.61%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-17 00:29
PlayUp1.19I 84.03%NM 78.27%EV -5.54%E -4.66%K -29.16%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.21%EV -1.96%E -0.130%K -0.140%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -15.48%E -2.58%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-17 00:28
William Hill1.20I 83.33%NM 77.38%EV -4.75%E -3.96%K -23.74%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -15.03%E -1.16%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -15.48%E -2.58%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-17 00:30
Winamax (FR)1.19I 84.03%NM 76.82%EV -5.54%E -4.66%K -29.16%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.95%EV -24.83%E -2.16%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.24%EV -15.48%E -2.58%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-17 00:30
Coral1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -6.33%E -5.37%K -35.19%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -34.64%E -3.46%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -15.48%E -2.58%K -3.10%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-17 00:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -6.33%E -5.37%K -35.19%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -34.64%E -3.46%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -15.48%E -2.58%K -3.10%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-17 00:30
Ladbrokes (AU)1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -6.33%E -5.37%K -35.19%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -34.64%E -3.46%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -15.48%E -2.58%K -3.10%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-17 00:29
Neds1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -6.33%E -5.37%K -35.19%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -34.64%E -3.46%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -15.48%E -2.58%K -3.10%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-17 00:29
Unibet (FR)1.13I 88.50%NM 76.66%EV -10.30%E -9.12%K -79.26%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 7.87%EV -28.10%E -2.55%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.47%EV -21.12%E -3.77%K -4.59%G +0.000%15.4%2026-04-17 00:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.14I 87.72%NM 77.60%EV -9.51%E -8.34%K -67.93%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.32%EV -8.49%E -0.607%K -0.653%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.08%EV -22.52%E -4.10%K -5.01%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-17 00:30
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.20I 83.33%NM 82.58%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.72%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.70%0.9%2026-04-17 00:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.20I 83.33%NM 82.58%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.72%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.70%0.9%2026-04-17 00:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.20I 83.33%NM 82.58%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.72%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.70%0.9%2026-04-17 00:30
Smarkets1.19I 84.03%NM 82.23%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.89%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.88%2.2%2026-04-17 00:30