Language:English
Toluca v Seattle Sounders FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Toluca (Local)
Prediction 74.50%1.34fair odd
EV -2.41%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -7.76%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.11%74.52%74.42%76.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.241.241.3186.21%80.40%80.65%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Seattle Sounders FC (Visit)
Prediction 10.37%9.64fair odd
EV +24.00%
Edge +2.01%
Kelly +2.19%
Growth +0.526%
assuming max odds 11.96
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.89%10.26%10.42%11.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.009.259.5011.9612.50%10.81%10.53%8.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 15.13%6.61fair odd
EV +5.93%
Edge +0.847%
Kelly +0.988%
Growth +0.059%
assuming max odds 7.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.70%15.22%15.16%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.006.126.257.0020.00%16.33%16.00%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toluca (Local): 74.50%; Seattle Sounders FC (Visit): 10.37%; Draw: 15.13%. For Seattle Sounders FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.64. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.96, corresponding to a positive expected value of +24.00%.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.68%EV -8.37%E -6.80%K -36.37%G +0.000% | 11.96I 8.36%NM 7.89%EV +24.00%E +2.01%K +2.19%G +0.526% | 6.11I 16.37%NM 15.44%EV -7.54%E -1.23%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-06 02:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -9.11%E -7.47%K -41.41%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV +14.05%E +1.28%K +1.40%G +0.197% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -9.20%E -1.53%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-06 02:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.71%EV -6.88%E -5.50%K -27.50%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.59%EV +3.68%E +0.368%K +0.409%G +0.015% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.70%EV +5.93%E +0.847%K +0.988%G +0.059% | 4.3% | 2026-08-06 02:08 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.18%EV -5.39%E -4.24%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.55%EV +3.68%E +0.368%K +0.409%G +0.015% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.28%EV -5.42%E -0.867%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-06 01:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.88%E -5.50%K -27.50%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV +3.68%E +0.368%K +0.409%G +0.015% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -9.20%E -1.53%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-06 02:09 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.90%EV -4.64%E -3.63%K -16.57%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.33%EV +3.68%E +0.368%K +0.409%G +0.015% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -20.55%E -3.92%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-06 01:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.76%EV -10.60%E -8.83%K -53.00%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV +3.68%E +0.368%K +0.409%G +0.015% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.15%EV -9.20%E -1.53%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-06 02:07 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.76%EV -10.60%E -8.83%K -53.00%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV +3.68%E +0.368%K +0.409%G +0.015% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.15%EV -9.20%E -1.53%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-06 02:07 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.21%EV -9.11%E -7.47%K -41.41%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.93%EV +3.68%E +0.368%K +0.409%G +0.015% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.86%EV -24.34%E -4.87%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-06 02:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.60%EV -5.39%E -4.24%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 9.65I 10.36%NM 9.82%EV +0.052%E +0.005%K +0.006%G +0.000% | 6.08I 16.45%NM 15.58%EV -7.99%E -1.31%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-06 01:59 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.95%EV -3.90%E -3.02%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.18%EV -1.50%E -0.158%K -0.177%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.87%EV -1.64%E -0.252%K -0.298%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-06 02:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.22%EV -6.13%E -4.87%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.98%EV -1.50%E -0.158%K -0.177%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.81%EV -3.15%E -0.492%K -0.584%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-06 02:04 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.22%EV -6.13%E -4.87%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.98%EV -1.50%E -0.158%K -0.177%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.81%EV -3.15%E -0.492%K -0.584%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-06 02:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.68%EV -7.62%E -6.15%K -31.75%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -1.50%E -0.158%K -0.177%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -1.64%E -0.252%K -0.298%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-06 02:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.68%EV -7.62%E -6.15%K -31.75%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -1.50%E -0.158%K -0.177%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -1.64%E -0.252%K -0.298%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-06 02:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.68%EV -7.62%E -6.15%K -31.75%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -1.50%E -0.158%K -0.177%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -1.64%E -0.252%K -0.298%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-06 02:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.68%EV -7.62%E -6.15%K -31.75%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -1.50%E -0.158%K -0.177%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -1.64%E -0.252%K -0.298%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-06 02:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.68%EV -7.62%E -6.15%K -31.75%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -1.50%E -0.158%K -0.177%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -1.64%E -0.252%K -0.298%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-06 02:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.68%EV -7.62%E -6.15%K -31.75%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -1.50%E -0.158%K -0.177%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -1.64%E -0.252%K -0.298%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-06 02:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.68%EV -7.62%E -6.15%K -31.75%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -1.50%E -0.158%K -0.177%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -1.64%E -0.252%K -0.298%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-06 02:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.68%EV -7.62%E -6.15%K -31.75%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -1.50%E -0.158%K -0.177%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -1.64%E -0.252%K -0.298%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-06 02:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.68%EV -7.62%E -6.15%K -31.75%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -1.50%E -0.158%K -0.177%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -1.64%E -0.252%K -0.298%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-06 02:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.68%EV -7.62%E -6.15%K -31.75%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -1.50%E -0.158%K -0.177%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -1.64%E -0.252%K -0.298%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-06 02:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.68%EV -7.62%E -6.15%K -31.75%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -1.50%E -0.158%K -0.177%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -1.64%E -0.252%K -0.298%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-06 02:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.68%EV -7.62%E -6.15%K -31.75%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -1.50%E -0.158%K -0.177%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -1.64%E -0.252%K -0.298%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-06 02:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.66%EV -8.37%E -6.80%K -36.37%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -1.50%E -0.158%K -0.177%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.54%EV -3.15%E -0.492%K -0.584%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-06 02:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.75%EV -8.37%E -6.80%K -36.37%G +0.000% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 9.91%EV -2.54%E -0.270%K -0.302%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -1.64%E -0.252%K -0.298%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-06 02:07 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.75%EV -8.37%E -6.80%K -36.37%G +0.000% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 9.91%EV -2.54%E -0.270%K -0.302%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -1.64%E -0.252%K -0.298%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-06 02:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.97%EV -6.13%E -4.87%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.50%EV -6.69%E -0.743%K -0.836%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -1.64%E -0.252%K -0.298%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-06 02:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 74.74%EV -13.58%E -11.71%K -84.88%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.63%EV -6.69%E -0.743%K -0.836%G +0.000% | 5.55I 18.02%NM 15.62%EV -16.01%E -2.89%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 15.3% | 2026-08-06 02:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.53%EV -3.90%E -3.02%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 8.90I 11.24%NM 10.66%EV -7.72%E -0.868%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.81%EV -9.20%E -1.53%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-06 02:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.53%EV -3.90%E -3.02%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 8.90I 11.24%NM 10.66%EV -7.72%E -0.868%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.81%EV -9.20%E -1.53%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-06 02:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.19%EV -6.88%E -5.50%K -27.50%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -11.87%E -1.40%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.05%EV -13.74%E -2.41%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-06 01:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.35%EV -2.41%E -1.84%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.85%EV -17.06%E -2.13%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.80%EV -9.20%E -1.53%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-06 01:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.97%EV -5.39%E -4.24%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.58%EV -17.06%E -2.13%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -9.20%E -1.53%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-06 02:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.78%EV -5.39%E -4.24%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -17.06%E -2.13%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.67%EV -10.72%E -1.82%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-06 01:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.62%EV -9.11%E -7.47%K -41.41%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -17.06%E -2.13%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -1.64%E -0.252%K -0.298%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-06 02:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.76%EV -9.11%E -7.47%K -41.41%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.25%EV -17.06%E -2.13%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -9.20%E -1.53%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-06 02:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.52%EV -10.60%E -8.83%K -53.00%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.18%EV -17.06%E -2.13%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.31%EV -5.42%E -0.867%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-06 02:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -6.88%E -5.50%K -27.50%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -17.06%E -2.13%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -24.34%E -4.87%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-06 01:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -6.88%E -5.50%K -27.50%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -17.06%E -2.13%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -24.34%E -4.87%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-06 01:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -6.88%E -5.50%K -27.50%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -17.06%E -2.13%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -24.34%E -4.87%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-06 01:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.76%EV -9.11%E -7.47%K -41.41%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.10%EV -17.06%E -2.13%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -16.77%E -3.05%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-06 01:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.50% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.74% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.76% | 2.7% | 2026-08-06 02:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.64% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.70% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.65% | 3.1% | 2026-08-06 02:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.64% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.70% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.65% | 3.1% | 2026-08-06 02:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.64% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.70% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.65% | 3.1% | 2026-08-06 02:10 |
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