Language:English
Palestino v La Serena
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Palestino (Local)
Prediction 47.34%2.11fair odd
EV -5.31%
Edge -2.66%
Kelly -5.31%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.93%47.47%47.28%50.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.941.952.0055.56%51.53%51.28%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
La Serena (Visit)
Prediction 25.75%3.88fair odd
EV +1.70%
Edge +0.431%
Kelly +0.578%
Growth +0.010%
assuming max odds 3.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.83%25.63%25.81%27.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.543.553.9532.26%28.24%28.17%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.91%3.72fair odd
EV -2.06%
Edge -0.565%
Kelly -0.779%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.64
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.87%26.91%26.92%28.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.373.373.6434.72%29.71%29.67%27.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Palestino (Local): 47.34%; La Serena (Visit): 25.75%; Draw: 26.91%. For La Serena (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.88. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.70%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.37%EV -5.78%E -2.91%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.37%EV +1.70%E +0.431%K +0.578%G +0.010% | 3.53I 28.33%NM 27.27%EV -5.02%E -1.42%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-15 23:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.32%EV -6.73%E -3.42%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.10%EV +1.70%E +0.431%K +0.578%G +0.010% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.59%EV -7.17%E -2.08%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-15 22:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.52%EV -6.26%E -3.16%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 25.08%EV -1.39%E -0.362%K -0.490%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.39%EV -2.06%E -0.565%K -0.779%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.80%EV -7.21%E -3.68%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.65%EV -2.16%E -0.568%K -0.771%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-15 23:34 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.80%EV -7.21%E -3.68%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.65%EV -2.16%E -0.568%K -0.771%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-15 23:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.30%EV -14.78%E -8.21%K -18.48%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -2.16%E -0.568%K -0.771%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -5.82%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-15 23:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.74%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 24.63%EV -2.67%E -0.707%K -0.962%G +0.000% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 27.63%EV -9.32%E -2.77%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-15 12:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.16%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.38%EV -4.73%E -1.28%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.46%EV -4.48%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-15 23:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -9.10%E -4.74%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -4.73%E -1.28%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -7.17%E -2.08%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-15 23:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -9.10%E -4.74%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -4.73%E -1.28%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -7.17%E -2.08%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-15 23:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.76%EV -8.15%E -4.20%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 3.66I 27.32%NM 25.31%EV -5.76%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 26.93%EV -7.44%E -2.16%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.76%EV -12.41%E -6.71%K -14.60%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.71%EV -6.02%E -1.65%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.53%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-15 22:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.31%E -2.03%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -3.13%E -0.870%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-15 21:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.31%E -2.03%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.82%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-15 23:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.71%EV -6.26%E -3.16%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -7.31%E -2.03%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.61%EV -9.86%E -2.94%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-15 23:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.83%EV -6.73%E -3.42%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -7.31%E -2.03%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.54%EV -9.86%E -2.94%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-15 23:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.83%EV -6.73%E -3.42%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -7.31%E -2.03%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.54%EV -9.86%E -2.94%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-15 23:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.83%EV -6.73%E -3.42%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -7.31%E -2.03%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.54%EV -9.86%E -2.94%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-15 23:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.83%EV -6.73%E -3.42%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -7.31%E -2.03%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.54%EV -9.86%E -2.94%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-15 23:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -7.31%E -2.03%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-12 18:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.76%EV -7.21%E -3.68%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -7.31%E -2.03%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -11.20%E -3.40%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-15 23:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -8.60%E -2.42%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-15 23:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -8.60%E -2.42%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -8.60%E -2.42%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.72%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.67%EV -8.60%E -2.42%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.61%EV -11.20%E -3.40%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-15 23:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -5.31%E -2.66%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -9.88%E -2.82%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.82%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -5.31%E -2.66%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -9.88%E -2.82%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.74%EV -6.26%E -3.16%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -9.88%E -2.82%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.82%EV -7.17%E -2.08%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-15 23:50 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.68%EV -6.73%E -3.42%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -9.88%E -2.82%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -9.88%E -2.82%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-15 23:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -9.88%E -2.82%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -9.88%E -2.82%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.20%E -3.40%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-15 23:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.81%EV -8.63%E -4.47%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -9.88%E -2.82%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -11.20%E -3.40%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.61%EV -8.63%E -4.47%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -9.88%E -2.82%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.68%EV -12.55%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-15 23:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.06%EV -8.15%E -4.20%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -12.46%E -3.66%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -5.82%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-15 23:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -12.46%E -3.66%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -11.20%E -3.40%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-15 23:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -12.46%E -3.66%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -12.55%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-15 23:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -12.46%E -3.66%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -12.55%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-15 23:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -12.46%E -3.66%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -12.55%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-15 23:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.72%EV -9.57%E -5.01%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -12.46%E -3.66%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -11.20%E -3.40%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-15 23:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.52%EV -9.57%E -5.01%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.14%EV -12.46%E -3.66%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -12.55%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-15 23:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.24%EV -11.47%E -6.13%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.98%EV -12.46%E -3.66%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -11.20%E -3.40%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 47.41%EV -13.36%E -7.30%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 25.90%EV -13.74%E -4.10%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.69%EV -12.55%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 15.3% | 2026-05-15 23:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.64%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -15.03%E -4.56%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -12.55%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.64%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -15.03%E -4.56%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -12.55%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.64%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -15.03%E -4.56%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -12.55%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.64%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -15.03%E -4.56%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -12.55%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 46.74%EV -10.99%E -5.85%K -12.49%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.04%EV -16.32%E -5.02%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.23%EV -9.86%E -2.94%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-05-15 23:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 44.93%EV -13.36%E -7.30%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 26.52%EV -20.18%E -6.51%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 28.55%EV -22.51%E -7.81%K -11.97%G +0.000% | 21.6% | 2026-05-15 23:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.76% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.91% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.33% | 1.6% | 2026-05-15 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.76% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.91% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.33% | 1.6% | 2026-05-15 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.76% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.91% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.33% | 1.6% | 2026-05-15 23:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.05% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.46% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49% | 2.0% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.00% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.79% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.20% | 2.1% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |