La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Palestino v La Serena
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Palestino (Local)
Predicción 47.34%2.11momio equitativo
EV -5.31%
Ventaja -2.66%
Kelly -5.31%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.93%47.47%47.28%50.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.801.941.952.0055.56%51.53%51.28%50.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
La Serena (Visitante)
Predicción 25.75%3.88momio equitativo
EV +1.70%
Ventaja +0.431%
Kelly +0.578%
Crecimiento +0.010%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.95
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.83%25.63%25.81%27.04%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.543.553.9532.26%28.24%28.17%25.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 26.91%3.72momio equitativo
EV -2.06%
Ventaja -0.565%
Kelly -0.779%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.64
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.87%26.91%26.92%28.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.373.373.6434.72%29.71%29.67%27.47%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.37%EV -5.78%E -2.91%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.37%EV +1.70%E +0.431%K +0.578%G +0.010% | 3.53I 28.33%NM 27.27%EV -5.02%E -1.42%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-15 23:50 |
| Coolbet | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.32%EV -6.73%E -3.42%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.10%EV +1.70%E +0.431%K +0.578%G +0.010% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.59%EV -7.17%E -2.08%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-15 22:09 |
| 1xBet | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.52%EV -6.26%E -3.16%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 25.08%EV -1.39%E -0.362%K -0.490%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.39%EV -2.06%E -0.565%K -0.779%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.80%EV -7.21%E -3.68%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.65%EV -2.16%E -0.568%K -0.771%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-15 23:34 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.80%EV -7.21%E -3.68%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.65%EV -2.16%E -0.568%K -0.771%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-15 23:35 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.30%EV -14.78%E -8.21%K -18.48%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -2.16%E -0.568%K -0.771%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -5.82%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-15 23:30 |
| GTbets | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.74%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 24.63%EV -2.67%E -0.707%K -0.962%G +0.000% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 27.63%EV -9.32%E -2.77%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-15 12:49 |
| DraftKings | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.16%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.38%EV -4.73%E -1.28%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.46%EV -4.48%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-15 23:30 |
| Betsson | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -9.10%E -4.74%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -4.73%E -1.28%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -7.17%E -2.08%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-15 23:50 |
| NordicBet | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -9.10%E -4.74%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -4.73%E -1.28%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -7.17%E -2.08%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-15 23:50 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.76%EV -8.15%E -4.20%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 3.66I 27.32%NM 25.31%EV -5.76%E -1.57%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 26.93%EV -7.44%E -2.16%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |
| Everygame | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.76%EV -12.41%E -6.71%K -14.60%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.71%EV -6.02%E -1.65%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.53%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-15 22:55 |
| Betway | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.31%E -2.03%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -3.13%E -0.870%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-15 21:59 |
| FanDuel | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.31%E -2.03%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.82%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-15 23:25 |
| Unibet | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.71%EV -6.26%E -3.16%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -7.31%E -2.03%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.61%EV -9.86%E -2.94%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-15 23:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.83%EV -6.73%E -3.42%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -7.31%E -2.03%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.54%EV -9.86%E -2.94%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-15 23:05 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.83%EV -6.73%E -3.42%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -7.31%E -2.03%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.54%EV -9.86%E -2.94%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-15 23:05 |
| Grosvenor | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.83%EV -6.73%E -3.42%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -7.31%E -2.03%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.54%EV -9.86%E -2.94%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-15 23:05 |
| TABtouch | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.83%EV -6.73%E -3.42%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -7.31%E -2.03%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.54%EV -9.86%E -2.94%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-15 23:05 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -7.31%E -2.03%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-12 18:19 |
| BetRivers | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.76%EV -7.21%E -3.68%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -7.31%E -2.03%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -11.20%E -3.40%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-15 23:00 |
| Bovada | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -8.60%E -2.42%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-15 23:54 |
| BetUS | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -8.60%E -2.42%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |
| BetAnything | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -8.60%E -2.42%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.72%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.67%EV -8.60%E -2.42%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.61%EV -11.20%E -3.40%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-15 23:05 |
| Bet Victor | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -5.31%E -2.66%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -9.88%E -2.82%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.82%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |
| BetMGM | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -5.31%E -2.66%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -9.88%E -2.82%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.74%EV -6.26%E -3.16%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -9.88%E -2.82%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.82%EV -7.17%E -2.08%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-15 23:50 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.68%EV -6.73%E -3.42%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -9.88%E -2.82%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |
| SportsBet | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -9.88%E -2.82%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-15 23:25 |
| Fanatics | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -9.88%E -2.82%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.51%E -2.50%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -9.88%E -2.82%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.20%E -3.40%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-15 23:25 |
| PlayUp | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.81%EV -8.63%E -4.47%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -9.88%E -2.82%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -11.20%E -3.40%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.61%EV -8.63%E -4.47%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -9.88%E -2.82%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.68%EV -12.55%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-15 23:05 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.06%EV -8.15%E -4.20%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -12.46%E -3.66%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -5.82%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-15 23:50 |
| betfred_uk | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -12.46%E -3.66%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -11.20%E -3.40%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-15 23:25 |
| 888sport | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -12.46%E -3.66%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -12.55%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-15 23:54 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -12.46%E -3.66%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -12.55%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-15 23:54 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -12.46%E -3.66%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -12.55%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-15 23:54 |
| Paddy Power | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.72%EV -9.57%E -5.01%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -12.46%E -3.66%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -11.20%E -3.40%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-15 23:25 |
| Sky Bet | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.52%EV -9.57%E -5.01%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.14%EV -12.46%E -3.66%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -12.55%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-15 23:25 |
| BoyleSports | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.24%EV -11.47%E -6.13%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.98%EV -12.46%E -3.66%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -11.20%E -3.40%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.83I 54.64%NM 47.41%EV -13.36%E -7.30%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 25.90%EV -13.74%E -4.10%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.69%EV -12.55%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 15.3% | 2026-05-15 23:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.64%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -15.03%E -4.56%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -12.55%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.64%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -15.03%E -4.56%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -12.55%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |
| Neds | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.64%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -15.03%E -4.56%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -12.55%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |
| Coral | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.64%EV -7.68%E -3.94%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -15.03%E -4.56%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -12.55%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.88I 53.19%NM 46.74%EV -10.99%E -5.85%K -12.49%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.04%EV -16.32%E -5.02%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.23%EV -9.86%E -2.94%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-05-15 23:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.83I 54.64%NM 44.93%EV -13.36%E -7.30%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 26.52%EV -20.18%E -6.51%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 28.55%EV -22.51%E -7.81%K -11.97%G +0.000% | 21.6% | 2026-05-15 23:25 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.76% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.91% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.33% | 1.6% | 2026-05-15 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.76% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.91% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.33% | 1.6% | 2026-05-15 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.76% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.91% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.33% | 1.6% | 2026-05-15 23:25 |
| Kalshi | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.05% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.46% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49% | 2.0% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |
| Smarkets | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.00% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.79% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.20% | 2.1% | 2026-05-15 23:55 |