Language:English
Ñublense v Union La Calera
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ñublense (Local)
Prediction 50.41%1.98fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -1.67%
Kelly -3.49%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.92
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.52%50.55%50.32%53.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.821.831.9259.88%54.98%54.64%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Union La Calera (Visit)
Prediction 21.75%4.60fair odd
EV +2.21%
Edge +0.470%
Kelly +0.598%
Growth +0.013%
assuming max odds 4.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.09%21.72%21.72%23.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.194.204.7026.67%23.86%23.81%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.84%3.59fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -0.732%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.51%27.73%27.97%28.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.323.303.5031.25%30.14%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ñublense (Local): 50.41%; Union La Calera (Visit): 21.75%; Draw: 27.84%. For Union La Calera (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.60. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.21%.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 52.16%EV -7.24%E -3.93%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.42%EV +2.21%E +0.470%K +0.598%G +0.013% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.42%EV -2.56%E -0.732%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-16 16:23 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.99%EV -5.22%E -2.78%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.40%EV +2.21%E +0.470%K +0.598%G +0.013% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.61%EV -6.74%E -2.01%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-16 16:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.12%EV -12.28%E -7.06%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.09%EV +0.037%E +0.008%K +0.010%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -3.95%E -1.15%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-16 15:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.12%EV -12.28%E -7.06%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.09%EV +0.037%E +0.008%K +0.010%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -3.95%E -1.15%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-16 15:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.12%EV -12.28%E -7.06%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.09%EV +0.037%E +0.008%K +0.010%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -3.95%E -1.15%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-16 16:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.12%EV -12.28%E -7.06%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.09%EV +0.037%E +0.008%K +0.010%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -3.95%E -1.15%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-16 16:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.12%EV -12.28%E -7.06%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.09%EV +0.037%E +0.008%K +0.010%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -3.95%E -1.15%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-16 15:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -2.14%E -0.475%K -0.611%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 16:14 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.07%EV -3.21%E -1.67%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 4.49I 22.27%NM 21.41%EV -2.36%E -0.525%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.52%EV -6.18%E -1.83%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-16 16:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.42%EV -5.73%E -3.06%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -4.31%E -0.980%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -6.74%E -2.01%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-16 16:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.86%EV -5.22%E -2.78%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -4.31%E -0.980%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -9.52%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 16:19 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.86%EV -5.22%E -2.78%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -4.31%E -0.980%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -9.52%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 16:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.86%EV -5.22%E -2.78%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -4.31%E -0.980%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -9.52%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 16:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.01%EV -14.30%E -8.41%K -20.42%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.48%EV -4.31%E -0.980%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -5.35%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-16 16:14 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.10%EV -15.31%E -9.11%K -22.51%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.27%EV -4.31%E -0.980%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -6.74%E -2.01%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-16 15:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.25%EV -15.81%E -9.47%K -23.60%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.21%EV -4.31%E -0.980%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.54%EV -6.74%E -2.01%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-16 15:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.25%EV -15.81%E -9.47%K -23.60%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.21%EV -4.31%E -0.980%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.54%EV -6.74%E -2.01%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-16 15:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.42%EV -5.22%E -2.78%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.79%EV -5.40%E -1.24%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.41I 29.33%NM 27.80%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 16:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.35%EV -7.24%E -3.93%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -5.84%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 28.25%EV -8.69%E -2.65%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-16 16:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -6.49%E -1.51%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.01%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-16 16:03 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.24%EV -7.24%E -3.93%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.75%EV -7.57%E -1.78%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.01%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-16 16:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.12%EV -5.73%E -3.06%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -8.66%E -2.06%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -5.35%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 16:14 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -6.74%E -3.64%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -8.66%E -2.06%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -5.35%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-16 16:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -6.74%E -3.64%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -8.66%E -2.06%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -5.35%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-16 16:18 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -8.66%E -2.06%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -9.52%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-16 16:18 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -8.66%E -2.06%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -9.52%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-16 16:19 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -8.66%E -2.06%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -9.52%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-16 16:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.36%EV -11.78%E -6.73%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.40%EV -8.66%E -2.06%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-16 16:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.30%EV -5.22%E -2.78%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -10.84%E -2.64%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-16 16:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.30%EV -5.22%E -2.78%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -10.84%E -2.64%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-16 16:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -5.73%E -3.06%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -13.01%E -3.25%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -2.56%E -0.732%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-16 16:23 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -5.73%E -3.06%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -13.01%E -3.25%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -5.35%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-16 16:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -5.73%E -3.06%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -13.01%E -3.25%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -5.35%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-16 16:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.32%EV -9.26%E -5.14%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -13.01%E -3.25%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.04%EV -6.74%E -2.01%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-16 16:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.39%EV -10.26%E -5.77%K -13.16%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.42%EV -13.01%E -3.25%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-16 16:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -9.26%E -5.14%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -13.01%E -3.25%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -10.91%E -3.41%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-16 16:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.39%EV -11.78%E -6.73%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.05%EV -13.01%E -3.25%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.56%EV -10.91%E -3.41%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-08-16 16:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.55%EV -8.25%E -4.53%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.12%EV -15.19%E -3.89%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-16 16:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.72%EV -6.74%E -3.64%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -15.19%E -3.89%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -10.91%E -3.41%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-16 16:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.72%EV -6.74%E -3.64%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -15.19%E -3.89%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -10.91%E -3.41%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-16 16:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.72%EV -6.74%E -3.64%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -15.19%E -3.89%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -10.91%E -3.41%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-16 16:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -15.19%E -3.89%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -10.91%E -3.41%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-16 16:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -15.19%E -3.89%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -10.91%E -3.41%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-16 16:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -15.19%E -3.89%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -10.91%E -3.41%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-16 16:14 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -15.19%E -3.89%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -10.91%E -3.41%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-16 16:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.52%EV -5.73%E -3.06%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.57%EV -16.27%E -4.23%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -9.52%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-16 16:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.11%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -17.36%E -4.57%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-16 16:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.53%EV -9.26%E -5.14%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -17.36%E -4.57%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-16 16:24 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.96%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -18.45%E -4.92%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-16 16:24 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.75%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.79%EV -18.45%E -4.92%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.45%EV -9.52%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-16 16:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 53.51% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 20.23% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 26.27% | -1.1% | 2026-08-16 16:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.85% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.63% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.51% | 1.0% | 2026-08-16 16:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.65% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.79% | 1.4% | 2026-08-16 16:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.65% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.79% | 1.4% | 2026-08-16 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.65% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.79% | 1.4% | 2026-08-16 16:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.56% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.84% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.60% | 2.1% | 2026-08-16 16:25 |