Idioma:Español
Ñublense v Union La Calera
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Ñublense (Local)
Predicción 50.41%1.98momio equitativo
EV -3.21%
Ventaja -1.67%
Kelly -3.49%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.92
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.52%50.55%50.32%53.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.671.821.831.9259.88%54.98%54.64%52.08%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Union La Calera (Visitante)
Predicción 21.75%4.60momio equitativo
EV +2.21%
Ventaja +0.470%
Kelly +0.598%
Crecimiento +0.013%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.70
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.09%21.72%21.72%23.89%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.754.194.204.7026.67%23.86%23.81%21.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 27.84%3.59momio equitativo
EV -2.56%
Ventaja -0.732%
Kelly -1.02%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.51%27.73%27.97%28.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.203.323.303.5031.25%30.14%30.30%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Ñublense (Local): 50.41%; Union La Calera (Visitante): 21.75%; Empate: 27.84%. Para Union La Calera (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.60. 7 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.70, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.21%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 52.16%EV -7.24%E -3.93%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.42%EV +2.21%E +0.470%K +0.598%G +0.013% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.42%EV -2.56%E -0.732%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-16 16:23 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.99%EV -5.22%E -2.78%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.40%EV +2.21%E +0.470%K +0.598%G +0.013% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.61%EV -6.74%E -2.01%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-16 16:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.12%EV -12.28%E -7.06%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.09%EV +0.037%E +0.008%K +0.010%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -3.95%E -1.15%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-16 15:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.12%EV -12.28%E -7.06%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.09%EV +0.037%E +0.008%K +0.010%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -3.95%E -1.15%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-16 15:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.12%EV -12.28%E -7.06%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.09%EV +0.037%E +0.008%K +0.010%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -3.95%E -1.15%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-16 16:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.12%EV -12.28%E -7.06%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.09%EV +0.037%E +0.008%K +0.010%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -3.95%E -1.15%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-16 16:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.12%EV -12.28%E -7.06%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.09%EV +0.037%E +0.008%K +0.010%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -3.95%E -1.15%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-16 15:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -2.14%E -0.475%K -0.611%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 16:14 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.07%EV -3.21%E -1.67%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 4.49I 22.27%NM 21.41%EV -2.36%E -0.525%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.52%EV -6.18%E -1.83%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-16 16:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.42%EV -5.73%E -3.06%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -4.31%E -0.980%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -6.74%E -2.01%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-16 16:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.86%EV -5.22%E -2.78%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -4.31%E -0.980%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -9.52%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 16:19 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.86%EV -5.22%E -2.78%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -4.31%E -0.980%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -9.52%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 16:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.86%EV -5.22%E -2.78%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -4.31%E -0.980%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -9.52%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 16:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.01%EV -14.30%E -8.41%K -20.42%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.48%EV -4.31%E -0.980%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -5.35%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-16 16:14 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.10%EV -15.31%E -9.11%K -22.51%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.27%EV -4.31%E -0.980%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -6.74%E -2.01%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-16 15:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.25%EV -15.81%E -9.47%K -23.60%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.21%EV -4.31%E -0.980%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.54%EV -6.74%E -2.01%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-16 15:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.25%EV -15.81%E -9.47%K -23.60%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.21%EV -4.31%E -0.980%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.54%EV -6.74%E -2.01%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-16 15:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.42%EV -5.22%E -2.78%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.79%EV -5.40%E -1.24%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.41I 29.33%NM 27.80%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 16:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.35%EV -7.24%E -3.93%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -5.84%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 28.25%EV -8.69%E -2.65%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-16 16:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -6.49%E -1.51%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.01%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-16 16:03 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.24%EV -7.24%E -3.93%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.75%EV -7.57%E -1.78%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.01%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-16 16:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.12%EV -5.73%E -3.06%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -8.66%E -2.06%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -5.35%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 16:14 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -6.74%E -3.64%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -8.66%E -2.06%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -5.35%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-16 16:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -6.74%E -3.64%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -8.66%E -2.06%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -5.35%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-16 16:18 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -8.66%E -2.06%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -9.52%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-16 16:18 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -8.66%E -2.06%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -9.52%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-16 16:19 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -8.66%E -2.06%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -9.52%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-16 16:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.36%EV -11.78%E -6.73%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.40%EV -8.66%E -2.06%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-16 16:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.30%EV -5.22%E -2.78%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -10.84%E -2.64%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-16 16:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.30%EV -5.22%E -2.78%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -10.84%E -2.64%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-16 16:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -5.73%E -3.06%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -13.01%E -3.25%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -2.56%E -0.732%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-16 16:23 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -5.73%E -3.06%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -13.01%E -3.25%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -5.35%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-16 16:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -5.73%E -3.06%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -13.01%E -3.25%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -5.35%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-16 16:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.32%EV -9.26%E -5.14%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -13.01%E -3.25%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.04%EV -6.74%E -2.01%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-16 16:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.39%EV -10.26%E -5.77%K -13.16%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.42%EV -13.01%E -3.25%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-16 16:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -9.26%E -5.14%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -13.01%E -3.25%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -10.91%E -3.41%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-16 16:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.39%EV -11.78%E -6.73%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.05%EV -13.01%E -3.25%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.56%EV -10.91%E -3.41%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-08-16 16:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.55%EV -8.25%E -4.53%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.12%EV -15.19%E -3.89%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-16 16:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.72%EV -6.74%E -3.64%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -15.19%E -3.89%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -10.91%E -3.41%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-16 16:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.72%EV -6.74%E -3.64%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -15.19%E -3.89%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -10.91%E -3.41%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-16 16:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.72%EV -6.74%E -3.64%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -15.19%E -3.89%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -10.91%E -3.41%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-16 16:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -15.19%E -3.89%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -10.91%E -3.41%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-16 16:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -15.19%E -3.89%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -10.91%E -3.41%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-16 16:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -15.19%E -3.89%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -10.91%E -3.41%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-16 16:14 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -15.19%E -3.89%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -10.91%E -3.41%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-16 16:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.52%EV -5.73%E -3.06%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.57%EV -16.27%E -4.23%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -9.52%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-16 16:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.11%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -17.36%E -4.57%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-16 16:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.53%EV -9.26%E -5.14%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -17.36%E -4.57%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-16 16:24 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.96%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -18.45%E -4.92%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-16 16:24 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.75%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.79%EV -18.45%E -4.92%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.45%EV -9.52%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-16 16:25 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 53.51% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 20.23% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 26.27% | -1.1% | 2026-08-16 16:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.85% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.63% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.51% | 1.0% | 2026-08-16 16:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.65% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.79% | 1.4% | 2026-08-16 16:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.65% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.79% | 1.4% | 2026-08-16 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.65% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.79% | 1.4% | 2026-08-16 16:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.56% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.84% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.60% | 2.1% | 2026-08-16 16:25 |