Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Ñublense v Union La Calera

Início: 2026-08-16 16:30 UTC

Final: Ñublense 2–1 Union La Calera

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

50 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Ñublense (Local)

Previsão 50.41%1.98odd justa
EV -3.21%
Vantagem -1.67%
Kelly -3.49%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.92

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
48.52%50.55%50.32%53.25%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.671.821.831.9259.88%54.98%54.64%52.08%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Union La Calera (Visitante)

Previsão 21.75%4.60odd justa
EV +2.21%
Vantagem +0.470%
Kelly +0.598%
Crescimento +0.013%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.70

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
20.09%21.72%21.72%23.89%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.754.194.204.7026.67%23.86%23.81%21.28%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 27.84%3.59odd justa
EV -2.56%
Vantagem -0.732%
Kelly -1.02%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.51%27.73%27.97%28.84%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.203.323.303.5031.25%30.14%30.30%28.57%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Ñublense (Local): 50.41%; Union La Calera (Visitante): 21.75%; Empate: 27.84%. Para Union La Calera (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.60. 7 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 4.70, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +2.21%.

Odds das casas de apostas (50 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Coolbet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.16%EV -7.24%E -3.93%K -8.62%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.42%EV +2.21%E +0.470%K +0.598%G +0.013%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.42%EV -2.56%E -0.732%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-16 16:23
Pinnacle🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.99%EV -5.22%E -2.78%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.40%EV +2.21%E +0.470%K +0.598%G +0.013%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.61%EV -6.74%E -2.01%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-16 16:15
TABtouch🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.12%EV -12.28%E -7.06%K -16.60%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.09%EV +0.037%E +0.008%K +0.010%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -3.95%E -1.15%K -1.61%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-16 15:59
Grosvenor🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.12%EV -12.28%E -7.06%K -16.60%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.09%EV +0.037%E +0.008%K +0.010%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -3.95%E -1.15%K -1.61%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-16 15:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.12%EV -12.28%E -7.06%K -16.60%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.09%EV +0.037%E +0.008%K +0.010%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -3.95%E -1.15%K -1.61%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-16 16:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.12%EV -12.28%E -7.06%K -16.60%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.09%EV +0.037%E +0.008%K +0.010%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -3.95%E -1.15%K -1.61%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-16 16:00
Unibet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.12%EV -12.28%E -7.06%K -16.60%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.09%EV +0.037%E +0.008%K +0.010%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -3.95%E -1.15%K -1.61%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-16 15:59
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -2.14%E -0.475%K -0.611%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 16:14
1xBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.07%EV -3.21%E -1.67%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.49I 22.27%NM 21.41%EV -2.36%E -0.525%K -0.675%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.52%EV -6.18%E -1.83%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-16 16:19
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.42%EV -5.73%E -3.06%K -6.58%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -4.31%E -0.980%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -6.74%E -2.01%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-16 16:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.86%EV -5.22%E -2.78%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -4.31%E -0.980%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -9.52%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-16 16:19
LowVig.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.86%EV -5.22%E -2.78%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -4.31%E -0.980%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -9.52%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-16 16:19
BetAnything🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.86%EV -5.22%E -2.78%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -4.31%E -0.980%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -9.52%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-16 16:19
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.01%EV -14.30%E -8.41%K -20.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.48%EV -4.31%E -0.980%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -5.35%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-16 16:14
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.10%EV -15.31%E -9.11%K -22.51%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.27%EV -4.31%E -0.980%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -6.74%E -2.01%K -2.87%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-16 15:59
Virgin Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.25%EV -15.81%E -9.47%K -23.60%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.21%EV -4.31%E -0.980%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.54%EV -6.74%E -2.01%K -2.87%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-16 15:59
LiveScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.25%EV -15.81%E -9.47%K -23.60%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.21%EV -4.31%E -0.980%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.54%EV -6.74%E -2.01%K -2.87%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-16 15:59
GTbets🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.42%EV -5.22%E -2.78%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.79%EV -5.40%E -1.24%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.80%EV -5.07%E -1.49%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-16 16:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.35%EV -7.24%E -3.93%K -8.62%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -5.84%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.25%EV -8.69%E -2.65%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-16 16:25
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -6.49%E -1.51%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.01%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-16 16:03
Unibet (UK)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.24%EV -7.24%E -3.93%K -8.62%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.75%EV -7.57%E -1.78%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.01%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-16 16:20
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.12%EV -5.73%E -3.06%K -6.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -8.66%E -2.06%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -5.35%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-16 16:14
betano_uk🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -6.74%E -3.64%K -7.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -8.66%E -2.06%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -5.35%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-16 16:20
Bet Victor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -6.74%E -3.64%K -7.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -8.66%E -2.06%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -5.35%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-16 16:18
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -8.66%E -2.06%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -9.52%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-16 16:18
BetUS🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -8.66%E -2.06%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -9.52%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-16 16:19
Codere (IT)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -8.66%E -2.06%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -9.52%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-16 16:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.36%EV -11.78%E -6.73%K -15.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.40%EV -8.66%E -2.06%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-16 16:19
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.30%EV -5.22%E -2.78%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -10.84%E -2.64%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-16 16:19
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.30%EV -5.22%E -2.78%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -10.84%E -2.64%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-16 16:19
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -5.73%E -3.06%K -6.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -13.01%E -3.25%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -2.56%E -0.732%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-16 16:23
SportsBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -5.73%E -3.06%K -6.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -13.01%E -3.25%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -5.35%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-16 16:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -5.73%E -3.06%K -6.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -13.01%E -3.25%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -5.35%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-16 16:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.32%EV -9.26%E -5.14%K -11.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -13.01%E -3.25%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.04%EV -6.74%E -2.01%K -2.87%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-16 16:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.39%EV -10.26%E -5.77%K -13.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.42%EV -13.01%E -3.25%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-16 16:20
LeoVegas🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -9.26%E -5.14%K -11.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -13.01%E -3.25%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -10.91%E -3.41%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-16 16:19
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.39%EV -11.78%E -6.73%K -15.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.05%EV -13.01%E -3.25%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.56%EV -10.91%E -3.41%K -4.96%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-16 16:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.55%EV -8.25%E -4.53%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.12%EV -15.19%E -3.89%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-16 16:24
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.72%EV -6.74%E -3.64%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -15.19%E -3.89%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -10.91%E -3.41%K -4.96%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-16 16:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.72%EV -6.74%E -3.64%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -15.19%E -3.89%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -10.91%E -3.41%K -4.96%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-16 16:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.72%EV -6.74%E -3.64%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -15.19%E -3.89%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -10.91%E -3.41%K -4.96%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-16 16:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -15.19%E -3.89%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -10.91%E -3.41%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-16 16:15
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -15.19%E -3.89%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -10.91%E -3.41%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-16 16:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -15.19%E -3.89%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -10.91%E -3.41%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-16 16:14
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -15.19%E -3.89%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -10.91%E -3.41%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-16 16:15
PlayUp🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.52%EV -5.73%E -3.06%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.57%EV -16.27%E -4.23%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -9.52%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-16 16:19
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.11%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -17.36%E -4.57%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-16 16:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.53%EV -9.26%E -5.14%K -11.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -17.36%E -4.57%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-16 16:24
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.96%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -18.45%E -4.92%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -8.13%E -2.46%K -3.53%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-16 16:24
Sky Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.75%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.79%EV -18.45%E -4.92%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.45%EV -9.52%E -2.93%K -4.23%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-16 16:25
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 53.51%5.00I 20.00%NM 20.23%3.85I 25.97%NM 26.27%-1.1%2026-08-16 16:25
Matchbook◎1.91I 52.36%NM 51.85%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.63%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.51%1.0%2026-08-16 16:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.91I 52.36%NM 51.65%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.79%1.4%2026-08-16 16:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.91I 52.36%NM 51.65%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.79%1.4%2026-08-16 16:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.91I 52.36%NM 51.65%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.79%1.4%2026-08-16 16:25
Smarkets◎1.90I 52.63%NM 51.56%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.84%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.60%2.1%2026-08-16 16:25