The School of Odds

Vila Nova v São Bernardo

Kickoff: 2026-07-06 22:00 UTC

Final: Vila Nova 2–1 São Bernardo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Vila Nova (Local)

Prediction 47.73%2.10fair odd
EV -5.50%
Edge -2.78%
Kelly -5.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.07%47.80%47.72%50.22%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.801.931.951.9856%52%51%51%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

São Bernardo (Visit)

Prediction 23.21%4.31fair odd
EV +2.59%
Edge +0.585%
Kelly +0.757%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 4.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.52%23.17%23.26%24.95%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.603.933.904.4228%25%26%23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 29.06%3.44fair odd
EV -4.10%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -1.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.90%29.03%29.02%30.23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.003.163.153.3033%32%32%30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle1.98I 50.51%NM 48.57%EV -5.50%E -2.78%K -5.61%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.76%EV +2.59%E +0.585%K +0.757%G +0.020%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.68%EV -5.84%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-06 21:35
SportsBet1.91I 52.36%NM 49.09%EV -8.84%E -4.63%K -9.71%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.06%EV -1.36%E -0.320%K -0.418%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-06 21:30
FanDuel1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -8.84%E -4.63%K -9.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -2.52%E -0.600%K -0.787%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.00%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-06 21:30
Bovada1.92I 52.08%NM 48.16%EV -8.36%E -4.35%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.02%EV -2.52%E -0.600%K -0.787%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-06 21:53
Tipico (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -14.09%E -7.83%K -17.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -2.52%E -0.600%K -0.787%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -7.00%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-06 21:35
DraftKings1.95I 51.28%NM 48.18%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.91%EV -4.84%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.91%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-06 21:44
LowVig.ag1.96I 51.02%NM 47.61%EV -6.45%E -3.29%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -4.84%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -8.46%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-06 21:50
BetOnline.ag1.96I 51.02%NM 47.61%EV -6.45%E -3.29%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -4.84%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -8.46%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-06 21:50
BetUS1.96I 51.02%NM 47.61%EV -6.45%E -3.29%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -4.84%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -8.46%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-06 21:50
1xBet1.93I 51.81%NM 48.41%EV -7.88%E -4.08%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.01%EV -5.77%E -1.42%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.57%EV -4.97%E -1.52%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-06 21:49
Unibet (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -7.16%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -7.00%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-06 17:35
Marathon Bet1.92I 52.08%NM 48.25%EV -8.36%E -4.35%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -7.16%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.59%EV -5.84%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-06 21:30
Paddy Power1.87I 53.48%NM 48.29%EV -10.75%E -5.75%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -7.16%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-06 21:30
Betsson1.95I 51.28%NM 47.33%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.37%EV -8.32%E -2.11%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.30%EV -8.46%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-06 17:40
NordicBet1.95I 51.28%NM 47.33%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.37%EV -8.32%E -2.11%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.30%EV -8.46%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-06 17:34
Codere (IT)1.94I 51.55%NM 47.24%EV -7.41%E -3.82%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.20%EV -8.32%E -2.11%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.56%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-06 17:35
LeoVegas1.92I 52.08%NM 47.72%EV -8.36%E -4.35%K -9.09%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.20%EV -8.32%E -2.11%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -8.46%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-06 21:54
Unibet1.97I 50.76%NM 47.36%EV -5.97%E -3.03%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.71%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-06 21:34
Unibet (NL)1.96I 51.02%NM 47.49%EV -6.45%E -3.29%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-06 21:35
Casumo1.96I 51.02%NM 47.49%EV -6.45%E -3.29%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-06 21:35
Unibet (SE)1.96I 51.02%NM 47.49%EV -6.45%E -3.29%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-06 21:35
Svenska Spel1.96I 51.02%NM 47.49%EV -6.45%E -3.29%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-06 21:35
ATG (SE)1.96I 51.02%NM 47.49%EV -6.45%E -3.29%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-06 21:35
betPARX1.96I 51.02%NM 47.49%EV -6.45%E -3.29%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-06 21:35
William Hill1.95I 51.28%NM 46.51%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -12.82%E -4.27%K -6.41%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-06 21:55
888sport1.95I 51.28%NM 46.51%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -12.82%E -4.27%K -6.41%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-06 21:55
Mr Green (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.51%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -12.82%E -4.27%K -6.41%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-06 21:55
888sport (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.51%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -12.82%E -4.27%K -6.41%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-06 21:55
PlayUp1.92I 52.08%NM 47.21%EV -8.36%E -4.35%K -9.09%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.55%EV -10.64%E -2.76%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.24%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-06 21:55
BoyleSports1.87I 53.48%NM 47.73%EV -10.75%E -5.75%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -11.80%E -3.11%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-06 17:05
PointsBet (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -12.96%E -3.46%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -7.00%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-06 15:40
BetRivers1.93I 51.81%NM 47.01%EV -7.88%E -4.08%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.19%EV -12.96%E -3.46%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -8.46%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-06 21:35
theScore Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -14.12%E -3.82%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -4.10%E -1.24%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-04 10:55
Grosvenor1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -8.84%E -4.63%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.12%E -3.82%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-06 21:35
LeoVegas (SE)1.89I 52.91%NM 47.00%EV -9.79%E -5.18%K -11.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.34%EV -15.28%E -4.19%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-06 21:34
TABtouch1.88I 53.19%NM 46.92%EV -10.27%E -5.46%K -11.67%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.17%EV -15.28%E -4.19%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.92%EV -11.36%E -3.73%K -5.54%G +0.000%13.4%2026-07-06 21:35
betfred_uk1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -16.44%E -4.57%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-01 14:19
Virgin Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 46.89%EV -10.75%E -5.75%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.36%EV -16.44%E -4.57%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.75%EV -11.36%E -3.73%K -5.54%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-06 21:35
LiveScore Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 46.89%EV -10.75%E -5.75%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.36%EV -16.44%E -4.57%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.75%EV -11.36%E -3.73%K -5.54%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-06 21:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.00I 50.00%NM 49.64%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.58%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%0.7%2026-07-06 21:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.64%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.58%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%0.7%2026-07-06 21:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.64%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.58%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%0.7%2026-07-06 21:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.64%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.58%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%0.7%2026-07-06 21:55
Smarkets2.00I 50.00%NM 49.40%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.96%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.64%1.2%2026-07-06 21:55