The School of OddsVila Nova v São Bernardo
Head to Head
Option 1: Vila Nova (Local)
Odds
1.7557.14%Min
1.9252.04%Mean
1.9551.28%Median
2.0249.50%Max
Consensus probabilities
45.45%2.200Min
50.39%1.985Max
46.99%2.128Mean
46.59%2.147Median
46.76%2.139IQM
46.99%2.128Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 2.02 under the IQM model: 46.76%
EV -5.55%Edge -2.75%Kelly -5.44%Growth +0.000%
Option 2: São Bernardo (Visit)
Odds
3.5028.57%Min
3.8825.78%Mean
3.8825.74%Median
4.2023.81%Max
Consensus probabilities
22.19%4.506Min
25.24%3.961Max
24.23%4.126Mean
24.59%4.066Median
24.48%4.086IQM
24.21%4.130Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 4.20 under the IQM model: 24.48%
EV +2.80%Edge +0.667%Kelly +0.875%Growth +0.025%
Option 3: Draw
Odds
3.0033.33%Min
3.2131.10%Mean
3.2031.25%Median
3.4029.41%Max
Consensus probabilities
27.40%3.649Min
30.30%3.300Max
28.77%3.476Mean
28.82%3.470Median
28.77%3.476IQM
28.80%3.473Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 3.40 under the IQM model: 28.77%
EV -2.19%Edge -0.645%Kelly -0.914%Growth +0.000%
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Vila Nova (Local) | São Bernardo (Visit) ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet | 1.85I 54.05% NM 50.39%EV -13.50% E -7.30% K -15.88% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.19%EV +2.80% E +0.667% K +0.875% G +0.025% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 27.42%EV -2.19% E -0.645% K -0.914% G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-29 22:59 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.85I 54.05% NM 50.39%EV -13.50% E -7.30% K -15.88% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.19%EV +2.80% E +0.667% K +0.875% G +0.025% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 27.42%EV -2.19% E -0.645% K -0.914% G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-29 23:00 |
| Casumo | 1.85I 54.05% NM 50.39%EV -13.50% E -7.30% K -15.88% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.19%EV +2.80% E +0.667% K +0.875% G +0.025% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 27.42%EV -2.19% E -0.645% K -0.914% G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-29 23:00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.85I 54.05% NM 50.39%EV -13.50% E -7.30% K -15.88% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.19%EV +2.80% E +0.667% K +0.875% G +0.025% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 27.42%EV -2.19% E -0.645% K -0.914% G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-29 22:59 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.85I 54.05% NM 50.39%EV -13.50% E -7.30% K -15.88% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.19%EV +2.80% E +0.667% K +0.875% G +0.025% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 27.42%EV -2.19% E -0.645% K -0.914% G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-29 23:00 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.85I 54.05% NM 50.39%EV -13.50% E -7.30% K -15.88% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.19%EV +2.80% E +0.667% K +0.875% G +0.025% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 27.42%EV -2.19% E -0.645% K -0.914% G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-29 23:00 |
| betPARX | 1.85I 54.05% NM 50.39%EV -13.50% E -7.30% K -15.88% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.19%EV +2.80% E +0.667% K +0.875% G +0.025% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 27.42%EV -2.19% E -0.645% K -0.914% G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-29 23:00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.99I 50.25% NM 47.54%EV -6.95% E -3.49% K -7.02% G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 23.08%EV +0.353% E +0.086% K +0.114% G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06% NM 29.38%EV -7.37% E -2.29% K -3.32% G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-05 06:35 |
| BetRivers | 1.82I 54.95% NM 50.11%EV -14.90% E -8.19% K -18.17% G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 22.25%EV +0.353% E +0.086% K +0.114% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 27.64%EV -5.07% E -1.54% K -2.20% G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-29 23:00 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.83I 54.64% NM 49.28%EV -14.43% E -7.89% K -17.39% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 22.54%EV -2.09% E -0.524% K -0.698% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.18%EV -7.95% E -2.48% K -3.61% G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-01 14:00 |
| Grosvenor | 1.79I 55.87% NM 50.04%EV -16.30% E -9.11% K -20.64% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 22.39%EV -2.09% E -0.524% K -0.698% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 27.56%EV -6.51% E -2.00% K -2.89% G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-06-29 22:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.78I 56.18% NM 50.18%EV -16.77% E -9.42% K -21.50% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 22.33%EV -2.09% E -0.524% K -0.698% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 27.49%EV -6.51% E -2.00% K -2.89% G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-06-29 23:00 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.97I 50.76% NM 47.08%EV -7.89% E -4.00% K -8.13% G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32% NM 23.48%EV -3.32% E -0.840% K -1.12% G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75% NM 29.44%EV -9.39% E -2.98% K -4.37% G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-05 06:20 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.97I 50.76% NM 47.08%EV -7.89% E -4.00% K -8.13% G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32% NM 23.48%EV -3.32% E -0.840% K -1.12% G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75% NM 29.44%EV -9.39% E -2.98% K -4.37% G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-05 06:25 |
| BetUS | 1.97I 50.76% NM 47.08%EV -7.89% E -4.00% K -8.13% G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32% NM 23.48%EV -3.32% E -0.840% K -1.12% G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75% NM 29.44%EV -9.39% E -2.98% K -4.37% G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-05 06:20 |
| Bovada | 1.95I 51.28% NM 47.20%EV -8.82% E -4.52% K -9.29% G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32% NM 23.30%EV -3.32% E -0.840% K -1.12% G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05% NM 29.50%EV -10.25% E -3.29% K -4.83% G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-05 12:50 |
| TABtouch | 1.77I 56.50% NM 49.97%EV -17.24% E -9.74% K -22.39% G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32% NM 22.39%EV -3.32% E -0.840% K -1.12% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 27.64%EV -7.95% E -2.48% K -3.61% G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-06-29 22:59 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.75I 57.14% NM 50.11%EV -18.17% E -10.39% K -24.23% G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64% NM 22.49%EV -4.54% E -1.16% K -1.57% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 27.40%EV -7.95% E -2.48% K -3.61% G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-06-29 23:00 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.75I 57.14% NM 50.11%EV -18.17% E -10.39% K -24.23% G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64% NM 22.49%EV -4.54% E -1.16% K -1.57% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 27.40%EV -7.95% E -2.48% K -3.61% G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-06-29 23:00 |
| 1xBet | 1.99I 50.25% NM 46.79%EV -6.95% E -3.49% K -7.02% G +0.000% | 3.89I 25.71% NM 23.93%EV -4.79% E -1.23% K -1.66% G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45% NM 29.28%EV -8.52% E -2.68% K -3.91% G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-05 06:30 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.97I 50.76% NM 47.01%EV -7.89% E -4.00% K -8.13% G +0.000% | 3.88I 25.77% NM 23.87%EV -5.03% E -1.30% K -1.75% G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45% NM 29.12%EV -8.52% E -2.68% K -3.91% G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-05 06:20 |
| SportsBet | 1.99I 50.25% NM 47.22%EV -6.95% E -3.49% K -7.02% G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32% NM 24.73%EV -6.99% E -1.84% K -2.50% G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85% NM 28.05%EV -3.63% E -1.08% K -1.55% G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-01 14:20 |
| Coolbet | 2.00I 50.00% NM 46.74%EV -6.49% E -3.24% K -6.49% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.93%EV -8.21% E -2.19% K -2.99% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 28.33%EV -5.07% E -1.54% K -2.20% G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-02 10:50 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.00I 50.00% NM 46.33%EV -6.49% E -3.24% K -6.49% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.71%EV -8.21% E -2.19% K -2.99% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.96%EV -7.95% E -2.48% K -3.61% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-04 16:10 |
| DraftKings | 2.00I 50.00% NM 46.33%EV -6.49% E -3.24% K -6.49% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.71%EV -8.21% E -2.19% K -2.99% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.96%EV -7.95% E -2.48% K -3.61% G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-02 13:19 |
| William Hill | 2.00I 50.00% NM 45.45%EV -6.49% E -3.24% K -6.49% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.24%EV -8.21% E -2.19% K -2.99% G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33% NM 30.30%EV -13.70% E -4.57% K -6.85% G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-05 00:40 |
| 888sport | 2.00I 50.00% NM 45.45%EV -6.49% E -3.24% K -6.49% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.24%EV -8.21% E -2.19% K -2.99% G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33% NM 30.30%EV -13.70% E -4.57% K -6.85% G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-05 00:35 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.00I 50.00% NM 45.45%EV -6.49% E -3.24% K -6.49% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.24%EV -8.21% E -2.19% K -2.99% G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33% NM 30.30%EV -13.70% E -4.57% K -6.85% G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-05 00:35 |
| 888sport (SE) | 2.00I 50.00% NM 45.45%EV -6.49% E -3.24% K -6.49% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.24%EV -8.21% E -2.19% K -2.99% G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33% NM 30.30%EV -13.70% E -4.57% K -6.85% G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-05 00:35 |
| Betsson | 2.02I 49.50% NM 45.72%EV -5.55% E -2.75% K -5.44% G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03% NM 24.96%EV -9.44% E -2.55% K -3.50% G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75% NM 29.32%EV -9.39% E -2.98% K -4.37% G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-04 16:10 |
| NordicBet | 2.02I 49.50% NM 45.72%EV -5.55% E -2.75% K -5.44% G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03% NM 24.96%EV -9.44% E -2.55% K -3.50% G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75% NM 29.32%EV -9.39% E -2.98% K -4.37% G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-04 16:10 |
| FanDuel | 1.95I 51.28% NM 47.22%EV -8.82% E -4.52% K -9.29% G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03% NM 24.88%EV -9.44% E -2.55% K -3.50% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 27.90%EV -5.07% E -1.54% K -2.20% G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-05 11:48 |
| Paddy Power | 1.95I 51.28% NM 47.22%EV -8.82% E -4.52% K -9.29% G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03% NM 24.88%EV -9.44% E -2.55% K -3.50% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 27.90%EV -5.07% E -1.54% K -2.20% G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-01 22:10 |
| theScore Bet | 1.95I 51.28% NM 47.22%EV -8.82% E -4.52% K -9.29% G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03% NM 24.88%EV -9.44% E -2.55% K -3.50% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 27.90%EV -5.07% E -1.54% K -2.20% G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-04 10:55 |
| LeoVegas | 1.98I 50.51% NM 46.43%EV -7.42% E -3.75% K -7.57% G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03% NM 24.85%EV -9.44% E -2.55% K -3.50% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.73%EV -7.95% E -2.48% K -3.61% G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-05 00:30 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.95I 51.28% NM 46.81%EV -8.82% E -4.52% K -9.29% G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03% NM 24.67%EV -9.44% E -2.55% K -3.50% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.52%EV -7.95% E -2.48% K -3.61% G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-01 22:20 |
| PlayUp | 1.98I 50.51% NM 45.69%EV -7.42% E -3.75% K -7.57% G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78% NM 25.13%EV -11.89% E -3.30% K -4.57% G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26% NM 29.18%EV -10.82% E -3.49% K -5.15% G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-07-02 22:05 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.97I 50.76% NM 45.81%EV -7.89% E -4.00% K -8.13% G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78% NM 25.07%EV -11.89% E -3.30% K -4.57% G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26% NM 29.11%EV -10.82% E -3.49% K -5.15% G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-04 16:10 |
| betfred_uk | 1.95I 51.28% NM 46.07%EV -8.82% E -4.52% K -9.29% G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78% NM 24.95%EV -11.89% E -3.30% K -4.57% G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26% NM 28.98%EV -10.82% E -3.49% K -5.15% G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-01 14:19 |
| BoyleSports | 1.91I 52.36% NM 46.26%EV -10.69% E -5.60% K -11.75% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 25.24%EV -14.33% E -4.10% K -5.73% G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26% NM 28.50%EV -10.82% E -3.49% K -5.15% G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-07-04 01:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.91I 52.36% NM 45.27%EV -10.69% E -5.60% K -11.75% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 24.71%EV -14.33% E -4.10% K -5.73% G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72% NM 30.02%EV -17.15% E -5.96% K -9.12% G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-07-02 06:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Vila Nova (Local) | São Bernardo (Visit) | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.04I 49.02% | 4.20I 23.81% | 3.40I 29.41% | 2.2% | 2026-07-05 12:35 |
| Smarkets | 2.00I 50.00% | 4.20I 23.81% | 3.20I 31.25% | 5.1% | 2026-07-05 13:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.00I 50.00% | 4.20I 23.81% | 3.20I 31.25% | 5.1% | 2026-07-05 12:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.00I 50.00% | 4.20I 23.81% | 3.20I 31.25% | 5.1% | 2026-07-05 12:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.00I 50.00% | 4.20I 23.81% | 3.20I 31.25% | 5.1% | 2026-07-05 12:30 |