La escuela de los momiosVila Nova v São Bernardo
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Vila Nova (Local)
Predicción 47.73%2.10momio equitativo
EV -5.50%
Ventaja -2.78%
Kelly -5.61%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.98
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.07%47.80%47.72%50.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.801.931.951.9855.56%51.79%51.28%50.51%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
São Bernardo (Visitante)
Predicción 23.21%4.31momio equitativo
EV +2.59%
Ventaja +0.585%
Kelly +0.757%
Crecimiento +0.020%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.42
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.52%23.17%23.26%24.95%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.603.933.904.4227.78%25.48%25.64%22.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 29.06%3.44momio equitativo
EV -4.10%
Ventaja -1.24%
Kelly -1.78%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.90%29.03%29.02%30.23%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.163.153.3033.33%31.68%31.75%30.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (39 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.57%EV -5.50%E -2.78%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 4.42I 22.62%NM 21.76%EV +2.59%E +0.585%K +0.757%G +0.020% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.68%EV -5.84%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-06 21:35 |
| SportsBet | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.09%EV -8.84%E -4.63%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.06%EV -1.36%E -0.320%K -0.418%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-06 21:30 |
| FanDuel | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -8.84%E -4.63%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -2.52%E -0.600%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.00%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-06 21:30 |
| Bovada | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.16%EV -8.36%E -4.35%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.02%EV -2.52%E -0.600%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-06 21:53 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -14.09%E -7.83%K -17.61%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -2.52%E -0.600%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -7.00%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-06 21:35 |
| DraftKings | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.18%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.91%EV -4.84%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.91%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-06 21:44 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.61%EV -6.45%E -3.29%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -4.84%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -8.46%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-06 21:50 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.61%EV -6.45%E -3.29%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -4.84%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -8.46%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-06 21:50 |
| BetUS | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.61%EV -6.45%E -3.29%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -4.84%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -8.46%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-06 21:50 |
| 1xBet | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.41%EV -7.88%E -4.08%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 4.06I 24.63%NM 23.01%EV -5.77%E -1.42%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 28.57%EV -4.97%E -1.52%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-06 21:49 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -7.16%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -7.00%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-06 17:35 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.25%EV -8.36%E -4.35%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -7.16%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.59%EV -5.84%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-06 21:30 |
| Paddy Power | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.29%EV -10.75%E -5.75%K -12.35%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -7.16%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-07-06 21:30 |
| Betsson | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.33%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.37%EV -8.32%E -2.11%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.30%EV -8.46%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-06 17:40 |
| NordicBet | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.33%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.37%EV -8.32%E -2.11%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.30%EV -8.46%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-06 17:34 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.24%EV -7.41%E -3.82%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.20%EV -8.32%E -2.11%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.56%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-06 17:35 |
| LeoVegas | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.72%EV -8.36%E -4.35%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.20%EV -8.32%E -2.11%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -8.46%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-06 21:54 |
| Unibet | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.36%EV -5.97%E -3.03%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.71%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-06 21:34 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.49%EV -6.45%E -3.29%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-06 21:35 |
| Casumo | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.49%EV -6.45%E -3.29%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-06 21:35 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.49%EV -6.45%E -3.29%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-06 21:35 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.49%EV -6.45%E -3.29%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-06 21:35 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.49%EV -6.45%E -3.29%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-06 21:35 |
| betPARX | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.49%EV -6.45%E -3.29%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-06 21:35 |
| William Hill | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.51%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -12.82%E -4.27%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| 888sport | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.51%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -12.82%E -4.27%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.51%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -12.82%E -4.27%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.51%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -12.82%E -4.27%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| PlayUp | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.21%EV -8.36%E -4.35%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.55%EV -10.64%E -2.76%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.24%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| BoyleSports | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.73%EV -10.75%E -5.75%K -12.35%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -11.80%E -3.11%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-06 17:05 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -12.96%E -3.46%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -7.00%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-06 15:40 |
| BetRivers | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.01%EV -7.88%E -4.08%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.19%EV -12.96%E -3.46%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -8.46%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-06 21:35 |
| theScore Bet | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -14.12%E -3.82%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -4.10%E -1.24%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-04 10:55 |
| Grosvenor | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -8.84%E -4.63%K -9.71%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.12%E -3.82%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-07-06 21:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.89I 52.91%NM 47.00%EV -9.79%E -5.18%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.34%EV -15.28%E -4.19%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-07-06 21:34 |
| TABtouch | 1.88I 53.19%NM 46.92%EV -10.27%E -5.46%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.17%EV -15.28%E -4.19%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.92%EV -11.36%E -3.73%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-07-06 21:35 |
| betfred_uk | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -16.44%E -4.57%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-01 14:19 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.87I 53.48%NM 46.89%EV -10.75%E -5.75%K -12.35%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.36%EV -16.44%E -4.57%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.75%EV -11.36%E -3.73%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-07-06 21:35 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.87I 53.48%NM 46.89%EV -10.75%E -5.75%K -12.35%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.36%EV -16.44%E -4.57%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.75%EV -11.36%E -3.73%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-07-06 21:34 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.64% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.58% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78% | 0.7% | 2026-07-06 21:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.64% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.58% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78% | 0.7% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.64% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.58% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78% | 0.7% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.64% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.58% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78% | 0.7% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |
| Smarkets | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.40% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.96% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.64% | 1.2% | 2026-07-06 21:55 |