A Escola das Odds

Vila Nova v São Bernardo

Início: 2026-07-06 22:00 UTC

Final: Vila Nova 2–1 São Bernardo

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

39 casas de apostas (14 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Vila Nova (Local)

Previsão 47.73%2.10odd justa
EV -5.50%
Vantagem -2.78%
Kelly -5.61%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.98

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
46.07%47.80%47.72%50.22%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.801.931.951.9855.56%51.79%51.28%50.51%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

São Bernardo (Visitante)

Previsão 23.21%4.31odd justa
EV +2.59%
Vantagem +0.585%
Kelly +0.757%
Crescimento +0.020%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.42

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
21.52%23.17%23.26%24.95%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
3.603.933.904.4227.78%25.48%25.64%22.62%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Empate

Previsão 29.06%3.44odd justa
EV -4.10%
Vantagem -1.24%
Kelly -1.78%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.30

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.90%29.03%29.02%30.23%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
3.003.163.153.3033.33%31.68%31.75%30.30%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (39 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle1.98I 50.51%NM 48.57%EV -5.50%E -2.78%K -5.61%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.76%EV +2.59%E +0.585%K +0.757%G +0.020%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.68%EV -5.84%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-06 21:35
SportsBet1.91I 52.36%NM 49.09%EV -8.84%E -4.63%K -9.71%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.06%EV -1.36%E -0.320%K -0.418%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-06 21:30
FanDuel1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -8.84%E -4.63%K -9.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -2.52%E -0.600%K -0.787%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.00%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-06 21:30
Bovada1.92I 52.08%NM 48.16%EV -8.36%E -4.35%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.02%EV -2.52%E -0.600%K -0.787%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-06 21:53
Tipico (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -14.09%E -7.83%K -17.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -2.52%E -0.600%K -0.787%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -7.00%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-06 21:35
DraftKings1.95I 51.28%NM 48.18%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.91%EV -4.84%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.91%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-06 21:44
LowVig.ag1.96I 51.02%NM 47.61%EV -6.45%E -3.29%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -4.84%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -8.46%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-06 21:50
BetOnline.ag1.96I 51.02%NM 47.61%EV -6.45%E -3.29%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -4.84%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -8.46%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-06 21:50
BetUS1.96I 51.02%NM 47.61%EV -6.45%E -3.29%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -4.84%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -8.46%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-06 21:50
1xBet1.93I 51.81%NM 48.41%EV -7.88%E -4.08%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.01%EV -5.77%E -1.42%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.57%EV -4.97%E -1.52%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-06 21:49
Unibet (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -7.16%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -7.00%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-06 17:35
Marathon Bet1.92I 52.08%NM 48.25%EV -8.36%E -4.35%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -7.16%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.59%EV -5.84%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-06 21:30
Paddy Power1.87I 53.48%NM 48.29%EV -10.75%E -5.75%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -7.16%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-06 21:30
Betsson1.95I 51.28%NM 47.33%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.37%EV -8.32%E -2.11%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.30%EV -8.46%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-06 17:40
NordicBet1.95I 51.28%NM 47.33%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.37%EV -8.32%E -2.11%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.30%EV -8.46%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-06 17:34
Codere (IT)1.94I 51.55%NM 47.24%EV -7.41%E -3.82%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.20%EV -8.32%E -2.11%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.56%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-06 17:35
LeoVegas1.92I 52.08%NM 47.72%EV -8.36%E -4.35%K -9.09%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.20%EV -8.32%E -2.11%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -8.46%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-06 21:54
Unibet1.97I 50.76%NM 47.36%EV -5.97%E -3.03%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.71%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-06 21:34
Unibet (NL)1.96I 51.02%NM 47.49%EV -6.45%E -3.29%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-06 21:35
Casumo1.96I 51.02%NM 47.49%EV -6.45%E -3.29%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-06 21:35
Unibet (SE)1.96I 51.02%NM 47.49%EV -6.45%E -3.29%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-06 21:35
Svenska Spel1.96I 51.02%NM 47.49%EV -6.45%E -3.29%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-06 21:35
ATG (SE)1.96I 51.02%NM 47.49%EV -6.45%E -3.29%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-06 21:35
betPARX1.96I 51.02%NM 47.49%EV -6.45%E -3.29%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-06 21:35
William Hill1.95I 51.28%NM 46.51%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -12.82%E -4.27%K -6.41%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-06 21:55
888sport1.95I 51.28%NM 46.51%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -12.82%E -4.27%K -6.41%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-06 21:55
Mr Green (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.51%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -12.82%E -4.27%K -6.41%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-06 21:55
888sport (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.51%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -12.82%E -4.27%K -6.41%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-06 21:55
PlayUp1.92I 52.08%NM 47.21%EV -8.36%E -4.35%K -9.09%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.55%EV -10.64%E -2.76%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.24%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-06 21:55
BoyleSports1.87I 53.48%NM 47.73%EV -10.75%E -5.75%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -11.80%E -3.11%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-06 17:05
PointsBet (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -12.96%E -3.46%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -7.00%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-06 15:40
BetRivers1.93I 51.81%NM 47.01%EV -7.88%E -4.08%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.19%EV -12.96%E -3.46%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -8.46%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-06 21:35
theScore Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -14.12%E -3.82%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -4.10%E -1.24%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-04 10:55
Grosvenor1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -8.84%E -4.63%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.12%E -3.82%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-06 21:35
LeoVegas (SE)1.89I 52.91%NM 47.00%EV -9.79%E -5.18%K -11.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.34%EV -15.28%E -4.19%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-06 21:34
TABtouch1.88I 53.19%NM 46.92%EV -10.27%E -5.46%K -11.67%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.17%EV -15.28%E -4.19%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.92%EV -11.36%E -3.73%K -5.54%G +0.000%13.4%2026-07-06 21:35
betfred_uk1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -6.93%E -3.55%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -16.44%E -4.57%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-01 14:19
Virgin Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 46.89%EV -10.75%E -5.75%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.36%EV -16.44%E -4.57%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.75%EV -11.36%E -3.73%K -5.54%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-06 21:35
LiveScore Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 46.89%EV -10.75%E -5.75%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.36%EV -16.44%E -4.57%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.75%EV -11.36%E -3.73%K -5.54%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-06 21:34
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook2.00I 50.00%NM 49.64%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.58%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%0.7%2026-07-06 21:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.64%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.58%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%0.7%2026-07-06 21:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.64%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.58%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%0.7%2026-07-06 21:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.64%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.58%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%0.7%2026-07-06 21:55
Smarkets2.00I 50.00%NM 49.40%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.96%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.64%1.2%2026-07-06 21:55