Language:English
Vila Nova v Avai
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Vila Nova (Local)
Prediction 43.42%2.30fair odd
EV -4.48%
Edge -2.03%
Kelly -3.73%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.23%43.62%43.40%46.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.092.082.2051.28%47.95%48.08%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Avai (Visit)
Prediction 27.44%3.64fair odd
EV +1.51%
Edge +0.409%
Kelly +0.560%
Growth +0.008%
assuming max odds 3.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.22%27.31%27.44%28.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.443.403.7032.26%29.09%29.41%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.14%3.43fair odd
EV -3.82%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -1.66%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.30%29.06%29.17%30.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.133.153.3035.71%31.92%31.75%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vila Nova (Local): 43.42%; Avai (Visit): 27.44%; Draw: 29.14%. For Avai (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.64. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.51%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.44%EV -10.55%E -5.12%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV +1.51%E +0.409%K +0.560%G +0.008% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-17 20:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.44%EV -10.55%E -5.12%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV +1.51%E +0.409%K +0.560%G +0.008% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-17 20:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.44%EV -10.55%E -5.12%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV +1.51%E +0.409%K +0.560%G +0.008% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-17 20:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.44%EV -10.55%E -5.12%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV +1.51%E +0.409%K +0.560%G +0.008% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-17 20:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.44%EV -10.55%E -5.12%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV +1.51%E +0.409%K +0.560%G +0.008% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-17 20:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.44%EV -10.55%E -5.12%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV +1.51%E +0.409%K +0.560%G +0.008% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-17 20:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.44%EV -10.55%E -5.12%K -9.96%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV +1.51%E +0.409%K +0.560%G +0.008% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-17 20:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -10.99%E -5.36%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV +1.51%E +0.409%K +0.560%G +0.008% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-17 20:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.54%EV -6.21%E -2.88%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.67I 27.25%NM 26.22%EV +0.689%E +0.188%K +0.258%G +0.002% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 29.24%EV -4.12%E -1.25%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-17 20:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.56%EV -12.29%E -6.08%K -12.05%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV +0.140%E +0.038%K +0.053%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.22%EV -8.20%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-17 20:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.56%EV -12.29%E -6.08%K -12.05%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV +0.140%E +0.038%K +0.053%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.22%EV -8.20%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-17 20:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -13.16%E -6.58%K -13.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -1.23%E -0.342%K -0.474%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.65%E -3.11%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-17 20:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.53%EV -14.03%E -7.09%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.39%EV -2.60%E -0.733%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.08%EV -9.65%E -3.11%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-17 20:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.53%EV -14.03%E -7.09%K -14.31%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.39%EV -2.60%E -0.733%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.08%EV -9.65%E -3.11%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-17 20:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 45.65%EV -14.46%E -7.34%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.33%EV -2.60%E -0.733%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.01%EV -9.65%E -3.11%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-17 20:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.12%EV -7.95%E -3.75%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 3.51I 28.49%NM 26.65%EV -3.70%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-17 20:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.16%EV -8.82%E -4.20%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.50%EV -3.97%E -1.14%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 29.35%EV -7.90%E -2.50%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-17 20:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.35%EV -9.69%E -4.66%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -3.97%E -1.14%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29%EV -8.20%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-17 20:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.35%EV -9.69%E -4.66%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -3.97%E -1.14%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29%EV -8.20%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-17 20:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -4.48%E -2.03%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.43%EV -5.35%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.57%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-17 20:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -4.48%E -2.03%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -5.35%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -8.20%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-17 20:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -4.48%E -2.03%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -5.35%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -8.20%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-17 20:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -6.65%E -3.09%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -6.72%E -1.98%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -5.28%E -1.62%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-17 20:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -8.82%E -4.20%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -6.72%E -1.98%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-17 20:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -8.82%E -4.20%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -6.72%E -1.98%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-17 20:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -15.33%E -7.86%K -16.14%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -6.72%E -1.98%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -3.82%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-17 20:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.02%EV -6.65%E -3.09%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.61%EV -8.09%E -2.41%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -8.20%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-17 20:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.02%EV -6.65%E -3.09%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.61%EV -8.09%E -2.41%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -8.20%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-17 20:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.02%EV -6.65%E -3.09%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.61%EV -8.09%E -2.41%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -8.20%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-17 20:40 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 43.25%EV -7.52%E -3.53%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.50%EV -8.09%E -2.41%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.25%EV -8.20%E -2.60%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-17 20:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.65%E -3.09%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -3.82%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-17 20:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.82%E -4.20%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -6.74%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-17 18:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.65%E -3.09%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.57%E -4.19%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-17 20:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.65%E -3.09%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.57%E -4.19%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-17 20:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.65%E -3.09%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.57%E -4.19%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-17 20:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.65%E -3.09%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.57%E -4.19%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-17 20:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.82%E -4.20%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -9.65%E -3.11%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-17 20:35 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.89%EV -10.99%E -5.36%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 28.84%EV -9.07%E -2.91%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-17 20:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -10.99%E -5.36%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -9.65%E -3.11%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-17 20:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -10.99%E -5.36%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -12.57%E -4.19%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-17 20:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -10.99%E -5.36%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -12.57%E -4.19%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-17 20:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -10.99%E -5.36%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -12.57%E -4.19%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-17 20:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -10.99%E -5.36%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -12.57%E -4.19%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-17 20:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.82%E -4.20%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -10.83%E -3.33%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -5.28%E -1.62%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-17 20:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -6.65%E -3.09%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -12.21%E -3.81%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.65%E -3.11%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-17 17:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -8.82%E -4.20%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -12.21%E -3.81%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -9.65%E -3.11%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-17 18:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.03%EV -10.99%E -5.36%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.57%EV -12.21%E -3.81%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.40%EV -12.57%E -4.19%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-05-17 17:26 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 42.38%EV -13.16%E -6.58%K -13.16%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.34%EV -14.95%E -4.82%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.27%EV -18.40%E -6.57%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 18.0% | 2026-05-17 17:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.32% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20% | 0.7% | 2026-05-17 20:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.19% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.12% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69% | 1.0% | 2026-05-17 20:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.17% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.10% | 1.1% | 2026-05-17 20:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.13% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.36% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.51% | 1.2% | 2026-05-17 20:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.62% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.77% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.61% | 2.3% | 2026-05-17 20:55 |