Language:English
Sport Recife v Ceará
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sport Recife (Local)
Prediction 42.08%2.38fair odd
EV -3.64%
Edge -1.59%
Kelly -2.82%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.76%42.14%42.19%45.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.202.202.2950.00%45.46%45.45%43.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ceará (Visit)
Prediction 27.78%3.60fair odd
EV -2.50%
Edge -0.712%
Kelly -0.995%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.51
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.78%27.76%27.60%29.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.273.253.5132.26%30.57%30.77%28.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.14%3.32fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -0.817%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.23
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.93%30.10%30.21%31.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.083.103.2335.71%32.47%32.26%30.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sport Recife (Local): 42.08%; Ceará (Visit): 27.78%; Draw: 30.14%. For Ceará (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.60. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.51, with an expected value of -2.50%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 42.03%EV -3.64%E -1.59%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.51I 28.49%NM 27.42%EV -2.50%E -0.712%K -0.995%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.55%EV -5.05%E -1.60%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-03 20:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.05%EV -4.06%E -1.78%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -5.05%E -1.60%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-03 20:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.05%EV -5.32%E -2.37%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.43%EV -4.17%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-03 17:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -5.32%E -2.37%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -9.72%E -2.99%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -3.54%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-03 20:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -5.32%E -2.37%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -9.72%E -2.99%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -3.54%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-03 20:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -5.32%E -2.37%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -9.72%E -2.99%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -3.54%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-03 20:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -5.32%E -2.37%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -9.72%E -2.99%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -3.54%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-03 20:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -5.32%E -2.37%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -9.72%E -2.99%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -3.54%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-03 20:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -5.32%E -2.37%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -9.72%E -2.99%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -3.54%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-03 20:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -5.32%E -2.37%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -9.72%E -2.99%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -3.54%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-03 20:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -5.32%E -2.37%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -9.57%E -3.19%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 20:51 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -5.32%E -2.37%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -9.57%E -3.19%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 20:51 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -5.32%E -2.37%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -9.57%E -3.19%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 20:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -5.32%E -2.37%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -9.57%E -3.19%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 20:51 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.90%EV -5.74%E -2.56%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -2.78%E -0.793%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -9.57%E -3.19%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-03 20:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.90%EV -5.74%E -2.56%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -2.78%E -0.793%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -9.57%E -3.19%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-03 20:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.75%EV -6.59%E -2.97%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 27.75%EV -7.22%E -2.16%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 30.49%EV -8.37%E -2.75%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-03 20:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.43%E -3.38%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -5.55%E -1.63%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-03 12:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.43%E -3.38%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -2.78%E -0.793%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -9.57%E -3.19%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-03 20:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.43%E -3.38%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -9.72%E -2.99%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -3.54%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-03 20:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.43%E -3.38%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -6.94%E -2.07%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -7.43%E -3.38%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -6.94%E -2.07%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -9.57%E -3.19%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-03 20:37 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -7.43%E -3.38%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -6.94%E -2.07%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -9.57%E -3.19%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-03 20:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.43%E -3.38%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -12.50%E -3.97%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -5.05%E -1.60%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-03 20:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.43%E -3.38%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 18:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.43%E -3.38%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -11.11%E -3.47%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 18:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.53%EV -7.43%E -3.38%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.00%EV -12.50%E -3.97%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.47%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-03 20:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.12%EV -7.43%E -3.38%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.72%EV -12.50%E -3.97%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -9.57%E -3.19%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-03 20:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 42.67%EV -7.85%E -3.58%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 28.40%EV -8.61%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 28.93%EV -2.64%E -0.817%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-03 20:51 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -8.27%E -3.79%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -6.94%E -2.07%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -8.06%E -2.64%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -8.27%E -3.79%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -6.94%E -2.07%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -8.06%E -2.64%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.75%EV -8.27%E -3.79%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.89%EV -12.50%E -3.97%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-03 20:50 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.50%EV -9.11%E -4.22%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -6.94%E -2.07%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.10%EV -8.06%E -2.64%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-03 18:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 41.58%EV -9.11%E -4.22%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -13.89%E -4.48%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.45%EV -8.06%E -2.64%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-03 20:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 41.58%EV -9.11%E -4.22%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -13.89%E -4.48%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.45%EV -8.06%E -2.64%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-03 20:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 41.58%EV -9.11%E -4.22%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -13.89%E -4.48%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.45%EV -8.06%E -2.64%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-03 20:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -9.53%E -4.43%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -5.55%E -1.63%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-03 20:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.97%EV -9.53%E -4.43%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 28.92%EV -13.33%E -4.27%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-03 20:35 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -9.53%E -4.43%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -13.89%E -4.48%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-03 20:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -11.63%E -5.54%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -8.33%E -2.52%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -9.57%E -3.19%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-03 20:51 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.19%EV -11.63%E -5.54%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -9.72%E -2.99%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.55%EV -12.59%E -4.34%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-03 11:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.20%EV -11.63%E -5.54%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -13.89%E -4.48%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.90%EV -15.60%E -5.57%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-05-03 20:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -15.84%E -7.92%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -2.78%E -0.793%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -6.56%E -2.12%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-03 20:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.13% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.81% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06% | 0.8% | 2026-05-03 20:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.67% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.40% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.93% | 1.0% | 2026-05-03 20:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.67% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.40% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.93% | 1.0% | 2026-05-03 20:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.67% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.40% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.93% | 1.0% | 2026-05-03 20:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.37% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.70% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.94% | 2.6% | 2026-05-03 20:55 |