Language:English
Operario PR v Vila Nova
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Operario PR (Local)
Prediction 39.82%2.51fair odd
EV -3.23%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -2.26%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.43
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.35%39.89%39.81%42.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.292.302.4346.51%43.62%43.48%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Vila Nova (Visit)
Prediction 29.22%3.42fair odd
EV -0.645%
Edge -0.190%
Kelly -0.269%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.78%29.18%29.24%31.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.153.153.4035.09%31.70%31.75%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.95%3.23fair odd
EV -4.04%
Edge -1.30%
Kelly -1.92%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.00%30.93%30.95%31.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.942.953.1035.71%34.05%33.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Operario PR (Local): 39.82%; Vila Nova (Visit): 29.22%; Draw: 30.95%. For Vila Nova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.42. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.40, with an expected value of -0.645%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.57%EV -3.23%E -1.33%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.79%EV -2.40%E -0.718%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.63%EV -5.90%E -1.94%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-23 20:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.42%E -1.84%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-23 20:49 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -4.42%E -1.84%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.29%EV -6.78%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.78%EV -8.99%E -3.06%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-23 20:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 39.80%EV -6.02%E -2.55%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 31.73%EV -8.37%E -2.83%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 39.80%EV -6.02%E -2.55%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 31.73%EV -8.37%E -2.83%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.93%EV -6.42%E -2.73%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -4.04%E -1.30%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-23 20:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -6.42%E -2.73%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-23 20:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -6.42%E -2.73%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -8.68%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-23 20:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.35%EV -6.42%E -2.73%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.62%EV -16.72%E -5.87%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-23 17:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 39.40%EV -6.81%E -2.91%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.79%EV -10.23%E -3.53%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-23 20:38 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -7.61%E -3.28%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -8.68%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-23 20:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -7.61%E -3.28%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -8.68%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-23 20:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -7.61%E -3.28%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -8.68%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-23 20:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -7.61%E -3.28%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -8.68%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-23 20:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -7.61%E -3.28%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -8.68%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-23 20:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -7.61%E -3.28%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -8.68%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-23 20:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -7.61%E -3.28%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -8.68%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-23 20:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 40.10%EV -8.01%E -3.47%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.07%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 31.83%EV -9.92%E -3.41%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-23 20:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -8.41%E -3.65%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-23 20:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -8.41%E -3.65%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-23 20:48 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -8.41%E -3.65%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-23 20:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.41%E -3.65%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-23 20:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.41%E -3.65%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-23 20:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.41%E -3.65%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-23 20:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.84%EV -8.41%E -3.65%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.06%EV -8.68%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-23 20:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.84%EV -8.41%E -3.65%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.06%EV -8.68%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-23 20:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.66%EV -8.41%E -3.65%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.92%EV -8.68%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-23 20:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.41%E -3.65%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.23%E -3.53%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-23 20:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -8.41%E -3.65%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -10.23%E -3.53%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-23 20:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -8.41%E -3.65%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -10.23%E -3.53%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-23 20:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -8.41%E -3.65%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -10.23%E -3.53%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-23 20:24 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -8.41%E -3.65%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -10.23%E -3.53%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-23 20:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -8.41%E -3.65%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -10.85%E -3.77%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-23 20:49 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.27%EV -9.20%E -4.04%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.11%EV -5.59%E -1.83%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-23 19:04 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -10.40%E -4.62%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-23 20:34 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -10.40%E -4.62%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-23 20:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -10.40%E -4.62%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -10.23%E -3.53%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-23 20:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -10.40%E -4.62%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -10.23%E -3.53%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-23 20:24 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -10.40%E -4.62%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -10.23%E -3.53%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-23 20:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -10.40%E -4.62%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -10.23%E -3.53%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-23 20:24 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.16%EV -10.40%E -4.62%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.37%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -13.33%E -4.76%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-08-23 20:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 40.15%EV -11.19%E -5.02%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.43%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.42%EV -11.78%E -4.13%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-23 20:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 40.15%EV -11.19%E -5.02%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.43%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.42%EV -11.78%E -4.13%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-23 20:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -12.39%E -5.63%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -10.85%E -3.77%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-23 20:44 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -12.39%E -5.63%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -10.85%E -3.77%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-23 20:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.07%EV -12.39%E -5.63%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.44%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.49%EV -13.33%E -4.76%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-08-23 20:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 40.29%EV -13.19%E -6.05%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.37%EV -13.33%E -4.76%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-23 20:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 40.29%EV -13.19%E -6.05%K -11.17%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.37%EV -13.33%E -4.76%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-23 20:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.35%EV -14.38%E -6.69%K -12.50%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -0.645%E -0.190%K -0.269%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -8.68%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-23 20:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.26% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.30% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.44% | 1.0% | 2026-08-23 20:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.26% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.30% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.44% | 1.0% | 2026-08-23 20:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.26% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.30% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.44% | 1.0% | 2026-08-23 20:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.26% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.30% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.44% | 1.0% | 2026-08-23 20:49 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.25% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.06% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.68% | 1.8% | 2026-08-23 20:54 |