Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Operario PR v Vila Nova

Início: 2026-08-23 21:03 UTC

Final: Operario PR 0–0 Vila Nova

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

49 casas de apostas (18 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Operario PR (Local)

Previsão 39.82%2.51odd justa
EV -3.23%
Vantagem -1.33%
Kelly -2.26%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.43

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
38.35%39.89%39.81%42.35%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.152.292.302.4346.51%43.62%43.48%41.15%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Vila Nova (Visitante)

Previsão 29.22%3.42odd justa
EV -0.645%
Vantagem -0.190%
Kelly -0.269%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.40

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.78%29.18%29.24%31.62%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.853.153.153.4035.09%31.70%31.75%29.41%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 30.95%3.23odd justa
EV -4.04%
Vantagem -1.30%
Kelly -1.92%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.10

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
30.00%30.93%30.95%31.83%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.802.942.953.1035.71%34.05%33.90%32.26%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Operario PR (Local): 39.82%; Vila Nova (Visitante): 29.22%; Empate: 30.95%. Para Vila Nova (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.42. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 3.40, com valor esperado de -0.645%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (49 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.57%EV -3.23%E -1.33%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.79%EV -2.40%E -0.718%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.63%EV -5.90%E -1.94%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-23 20:49
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.42%E -1.84%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-23 20:49
1xBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -4.42%E -1.84%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.29%EV -6.78%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.78%EV -8.99%E -3.06%K -4.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-23 20:54
LowVig.ag🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.80%EV -6.02%E -2.55%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.73%EV -8.37%E -2.83%K -4.27%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-23 20:39
BetOnline.ag🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.80%EV -6.02%E -2.55%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.73%EV -8.37%E -2.83%K -4.27%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-23 20:39
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.93%EV -6.42%E -2.73%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -4.04%E -1.30%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-23 20:49
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -6.42%E -2.73%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 20:54
BetUS🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -6.42%E -2.73%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -8.68%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 20:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.35%EV -6.42%E -2.73%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.62%EV -16.72%E -5.87%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-23 17:19
Bovada🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 39.40%EV -6.81%E -2.91%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.79%EV -10.23%E -3.53%K -5.38%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-23 20:38
Unibet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -7.61%E -3.28%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -8.68%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 20:54
Casumo🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -7.61%E -3.28%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -8.68%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 20:49
Unibet (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -7.61%E -3.28%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -8.68%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 20:49
Unibet (NL)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -7.61%E -3.28%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -8.68%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 20:49
ATG (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -7.61%E -3.28%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -8.68%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 20:49
betPARX🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -7.61%E -3.28%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -8.68%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 20:49
Svenska Spel🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.17%EV -7.61%E -3.28%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -8.68%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 20:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.10%EV -8.01%E -3.47%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.07%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 31.83%EV -9.92%E -3.41%K -5.19%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-23 20:34
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -8.41%E -3.65%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 20:45
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -8.41%E -3.65%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 20:48
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -8.41%E -3.65%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-23 20:45
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.41%E -3.65%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-23 20:54
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.41%E -3.65%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-23 20:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.41%E -3.65%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-23 20:49
Betsson🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.84%EV -8.41%E -3.65%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.06%EV -8.68%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-23 20:54
NordicBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.84%EV -8.41%E -3.65%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.06%EV -8.68%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-23 20:54
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.66%EV -8.41%E -3.65%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.92%EV -8.68%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-23 20:29
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.41%E -3.65%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.23%E -3.53%K -5.38%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-23 20:49
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -8.41%E -3.65%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -10.23%E -3.53%K -5.38%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-23 20:25
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -8.41%E -3.65%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -10.23%E -3.53%K -5.38%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-23 20:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -8.41%E -3.65%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -10.23%E -3.53%K -5.38%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-23 20:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -8.41%E -3.65%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -10.23%E -3.53%K -5.38%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-23 20:25
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -8.41%E -3.65%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -10.85%E -3.77%K -5.77%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-23 20:49
Codere (IT)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.27%EV -9.20%E -4.04%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.11%EV -5.59%E -1.83%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-23 19:04
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -10.40%E -4.62%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-23 20:34
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -10.40%E -4.62%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -7.14%E -2.38%K -3.57%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-23 20:34
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -10.40%E -4.62%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -10.23%E -3.53%K -5.38%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-23 20:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -10.40%E -4.62%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -10.23%E -3.53%K -5.38%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-23 20:24
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -10.40%E -4.62%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -10.23%E -3.53%K -5.38%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-23 20:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -10.40%E -4.62%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -10.23%E -3.53%K -5.38%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-23 20:24
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.16%EV -10.40%E -4.62%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.37%EV -12.33%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -13.33%E -4.76%K -7.40%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-23 20:29
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.15%EV -11.19%E -5.02%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.43%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.42%EV -11.78%E -4.13%K -6.37%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-23 20:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.15%EV -11.19%E -5.02%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.43%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.42%EV -11.78%E -4.13%K -6.37%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-23 20:49
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -12.39%E -5.63%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -10.85%E -3.77%K -5.77%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-23 20:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -12.39%E -5.63%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -10.85%E -3.77%K -5.77%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-23 20:49
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.07%EV -12.39%E -5.63%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.44%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.49%EV -13.33%E -4.76%K -7.40%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-23 20:54
Virgin Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.29%EV -13.19%E -6.05%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.37%EV -13.33%E -4.76%K -7.40%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-23 20:49
LiveScore Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.29%EV -13.19%E -6.05%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.37%EV -13.33%E -4.76%K -7.40%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-23 20:49
BetRivers🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.35%EV -14.38%E -6.69%K -12.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -0.645%E -0.190%K -0.269%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -8.68%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-23 20:39
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.26%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.30%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.44%1.0%2026-08-23 20:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.26%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.30%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.44%1.0%2026-08-23 20:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.26%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.30%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.44%1.0%2026-08-23 20:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.26%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.30%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.44%1.0%2026-08-23 20:49
Smarkets◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.25%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.06%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.68%1.8%2026-08-23 20:54