The School of Odds

Juventude v Avai

2026-07-28 22:30 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Juventude (Local)

Prediction 54.95%1.82fair odd
EV -7.69%
Edge -4.58%
Kelly -11.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.79%54.95%54.95%55.47%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.601.651.681.6863%61%60%60%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Avai (Visit)

Prediction 18.61%5.37fair odd
EV -5.07%
Edge -0.993%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.27%18.61%18.61%18.67%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.704.955.105.1021%20%20%20%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 26.44%3.78fair odd
EV -6.14%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -2.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.25%26.44%26.44%26.56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.303.463.553.5530%29%28%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet1.68I 59.52%NM 55.47%EV -7.69%E -4.58%K -11.31%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV -5.07%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.25%EV -6.14%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 00:15
Unibet (NL)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.47%EV -7.69%E -4.58%K -11.31%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV -5.07%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.25%EV -6.14%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 00:15
Unibet (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.47%EV -7.69%E -4.58%K -11.31%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV -5.07%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.25%EV -6.14%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 00:15
Casumo1.68I 59.52%NM 55.47%EV -7.69%E -4.58%K -11.31%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV -5.07%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.25%EV -6.14%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 00:10
Svenska Spel1.68I 59.52%NM 55.47%EV -7.69%E -4.58%K -11.31%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV -5.07%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.25%EV -6.14%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 00:15
betPARX1.68I 59.52%NM 55.47%EV -7.69%E -4.58%K -11.31%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV -5.07%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.25%EV -6.14%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 00:10
ATG (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.47%EV -7.69%E -4.58%K -11.31%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV -5.07%E -0.993%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.25%EV -6.14%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 00:15
BetRivers1.66I 60.24%NM 54.95%EV -8.79%E -5.29%K -13.32%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.61%EV -8.79%E -1.79%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.44%EV -8.79%E -2.55%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-22 00:15
Grosvenor1.63I 61.35%NM 54.98%EV -10.44%E -6.40%K -16.57%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.67%EV -10.65%E -2.22%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.36%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-22 00:10
LeoVegas (SE)1.62I 61.73%NM 54.91%EV -10.99%E -6.78%K -17.72%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.53%EV -10.65%E -2.22%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.55%EV -11.43%E -3.41%K -4.86%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-22 00:15
TABtouch1.61I 62.11%NM 54.96%EV -11.54%E -7.16%K -18.91%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.63%EV -11.58%E -2.44%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.41%EV -11.43%E -3.41%K -4.86%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-22 00:15
LiveScore Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 54.79%EV -12.08%E -7.55%K -20.14%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.65%EV -12.51%E -2.66%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.56%EV -12.75%E -3.86%K -5.55%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-22 00:10
Virgin Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 54.79%EV -12.08%E -7.55%K -20.14%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.65%EV -12.51%E -2.66%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.56%EV -12.75%E -3.86%K -5.55%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-22 00:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.