Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Juventude v Avai

Início: 2026-07-28 22:30 UTC

Final: Juventude 1–0 Avai

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

48 casas de apostas (18 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Juventude (Local)

Previsão 55.25%1.81odd justa
EV -6.08%
Vantagem -3.57%
Kelly -8.68%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.70

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
53.44%55.28%55.17%57.56%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.561.651.651.7064.10%60.44%60.61%58.82%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Avai (Visitante)

Previsão 16.82%5.94odd justa
EV +6.83%
Vantagem +1.08%
Kelly +1.28%
Crescimento +0.087%

pressupondo odds máximas de 6.35

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
15.06%16.76%16.86%18.27%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
5.005.505.506.3520.00%18.20%18.18%15.75%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 27.93%3.58odd justa
EV -3.65%
Vantagem -1.06%
Kelly -1.49%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.45

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.04%27.96%27.97%29.18%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.103.293.253.4532.26%30.42%30.77%28.99%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Juventude (Local): 55.25%; Avai (Visitante): 16.82%; Empate: 27.93%. Para Avai (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 5.94. 7 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 6.35, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +6.83%.

Odds das casas de apostas (48 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
LowVig.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.24%EV -6.08%E -3.57%K -8.68%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 15.06%EV +6.83%E +1.08%K +1.28%G +0.087%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.71%EV -7.00%E -2.10%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-28 21:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.24%EV -6.08%E -3.57%K -8.68%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 15.06%EV +6.83%E +1.08%K +1.28%G +0.087%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.71%EV -7.00%E -2.10%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-28 22:00
BetUS🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.24%EV -6.08%E -3.57%K -8.68%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 15.06%EV +6.83%E +1.08%K +1.28%G +0.087%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.71%EV -7.00%E -2.10%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-28 21:59
Pinnacle🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.30%EV -6.08%E -3.57%K -8.68%G +0.000%6.12I 16.34%NM 15.64%EV +2.96%E +0.484%K +0.578%G +0.017%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.07%EV -4.77%E -1.40%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-28 22:20
SportsBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.50%EV -6.63%E -3.92%K -9.61%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV +0.941%E +0.157%K +0.188%G +0.002%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.86%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-28 22:24
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.25%EV -6.63%E -3.92%K -9.61%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV +0.941%E +0.157%K +0.188%G +0.002%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.18%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-28 22:24
Tipico (DE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.56%EV -13.26%E -8.45%K -23.26%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.06%EV +0.941%E +0.157%K +0.188%G +0.002%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -7.84%E -2.38%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-28 21:59
Unibet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.88%EV -9.39%E -5.73%K -14.68%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.08%EV -2.42%E -0.418%K -0.505%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -3.65%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-28 21:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.88%EV -9.39%E -5.73%K -14.68%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.08%EV -2.42%E -0.418%K -0.505%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -3.65%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-28 21:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.88%EV -9.39%E -5.73%K -14.68%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.08%EV -2.42%E -0.418%K -0.505%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -3.65%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-28 21:54
Casumo🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.88%EV -9.39%E -5.73%K -14.68%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.08%EV -2.42%E -0.418%K -0.505%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -3.65%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-28 21:54
Svenska Spel🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.88%EV -9.39%E -5.73%K -14.68%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.08%EV -2.42%E -0.418%K -0.505%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -3.65%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-28 21:55
betPARX🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.88%EV -9.39%E -5.73%K -14.68%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.08%EV -2.42%E -0.418%K -0.505%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -3.65%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-28 21:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.88%EV -9.39%E -5.73%K -14.68%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.08%EV -2.42%E -0.418%K -0.505%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -3.65%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-28 21:54
DraftKings🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.61%EV -6.63%E -3.92%K -9.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.34%EV -3.26%E -0.568%K -0.687%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-28 22:13
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.13%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.54%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -3.26%E -0.568%K -0.687%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -5.05%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-28 22:04
Marathon Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.15%EV -8.84%E -5.36%K -13.60%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.11%EV -3.26%E -0.568%K -0.687%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.74%EV -6.72%E -2.01%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-28 22:29
Bovada🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.72%EV -8.84%E -5.36%K -13.60%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.99%EV -3.26%E -0.568%K -0.687%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-28 22:23
BetRivers🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.41%EV -10.50%E -6.48%K -16.93%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.32%EV -5.79%E -1.03%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.28%EV -6.44%E -1.92%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-28 21:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.58%EV -6.08%E -3.57%K -8.68%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.87%EV -7.47%E -1.36%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-28 21:25
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.87%EV -7.18%E -4.28%K -10.56%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -7.47%E -1.36%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.37%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-28 21:24
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.87%EV -7.18%E -4.28%K -10.56%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -7.47%E -1.36%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.37%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-28 21:25
Grosvenor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.31%EV -11.60%E -7.25%K -19.34%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.38%EV -7.47%E -1.36%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -7.84%E -2.38%K -3.41%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-28 21:55
Paddy Power🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.58%EV -8.84%E -5.36%K -13.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.37%EV -7.47%E -1.36%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -13.42%E -4.33%K -6.39%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-28 22:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.58%EV -8.84%E -5.36%K -13.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.37%EV -7.47%E -1.36%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -13.42%E -4.33%K -6.39%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-28 22:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.54%EV -13.26%E -8.45%K -23.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -7.47%E -1.36%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.32%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-28 21:54
Codere (IT)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.46%EV -7.18%E -4.28%K -10.56%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.94%EV -9.15%E -1.69%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.59%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-28 21:25
TABtouch🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.53%EV -13.81%E -8.85%K -24.66%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.33%EV -9.15%E -1.69%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.14%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%13.4%2026-07-28 21:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.29%EV -13.81%E -8.85%K -24.66%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.26%EV -9.15%E -1.69%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.44%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-28 21:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.29%EV -13.81%E -8.85%K -24.66%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.26%EV -9.15%E -1.69%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.44%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-28 21:54
LeoVegas🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.91%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.54%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.30%EV -10.84%E -2.04%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -7.84%E -2.38%K -3.41%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-28 22:29
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.83%EV -6.08%E -3.57%K -8.68%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV -11.68%E -2.22%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -5.05%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-28 22:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.82%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.54%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.44%EV -11.68%E -2.22%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -7.84%E -2.38%K -3.41%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-28 22:04
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.59%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.54%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.36%EV -11.68%E -2.22%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-28 22:18
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.89%EV -8.84%E -5.36%K -13.60%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.25%EV -11.68%E -2.22%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.86%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-28 22:24
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.05%EV -6.63%E -3.92%K -9.61%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -15.88%E -3.18%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -7.84%E -2.38%K -3.41%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-28 22:29
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.44%EV -6.08%E -3.57%K -8.68%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -15.88%E -3.18%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-28 22:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.44%EV -6.08%E -3.57%K -8.68%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -15.88%E -3.18%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-28 22:19
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.44%EV -6.08%E -3.57%K -8.68%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -15.88%E -3.18%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-28 22:19
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.44%EV -6.08%E -3.57%K -8.68%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -15.88%E -3.18%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-28 22:20
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.12%EV -7.73%E -4.63%K -11.54%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.08%EV -15.88%E -3.18%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-28 22:04
Bet Victor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.64%EV -8.84%E -5.36%K -13.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.03%EV -15.88%E -3.18%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -7.84%E -2.38%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-28 22:29
betano_uk🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.42%EV -8.84%E -5.36%K -13.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.96%EV -15.88%E -3.18%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.63%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-28 22:23
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.18%EV -8.84%E -5.36%K -13.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -15.88%E -3.18%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.94%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-28 22:20
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.18%EV -8.84%E -5.36%K -13.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -15.88%E -3.18%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.94%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-28 22:19
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.18%EV -8.84%E -5.36%K -13.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -15.88%E -3.18%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.94%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-28 22:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.18%EV -8.84%E -5.36%K -13.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -15.88%E -3.18%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.94%EV -10.63%E -3.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-28 22:20
BoyleSports🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.18%EV -11.60%E -7.25%K -19.34%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.66%EV -15.88%E -3.18%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.16%EV -9.23%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%13.3%2026-07-28 22:05
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.74%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.13%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.13%0.1%2026-07-28 22:25
Matchbook1.76I 56.82%NM 56.51%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.07%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.42%0.5%2026-07-28 22:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 56.65%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.02%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.33%0.9%2026-07-28 22:29
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 56.65%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.02%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.33%0.9%2026-07-28 22:29
Smarkets1.74I 57.47%NM 56.53%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.37%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.10%1.7%2026-07-28 22:25