Language:English
Grêmio Novorizontino v Vila Nova
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Grêmio Novorizontino (Local)
Prediction 50.31%1.99fair odd
EV -2.39%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -2.54%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.94
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.63%50.33%50.27%53.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.841.831.9458.82%54.21%54.64%51.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Vila Nova (Visit)
Prediction 21.40%4.67fair odd
EV +2.09%
Edge +0.439%
Kelly +0.555%
Growth +0.012%
assuming max odds 4.77
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.61%21.39%21.39%24.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.194.204.7727.40%23.88%23.81%20.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.28%3.54fair odd
EV -3.55%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -1.47%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.41
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.33%28.28%28.34%30.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.213.203.4135.71%31.13%31.25%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grêmio Novorizontino (Local): 50.31%; Vila Nova (Visit): 21.40%; Draw: 28.28%. For Vila Nova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.67. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.77, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.09%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.69%EV -8.93%E -4.94%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 4.77I 20.96%NM 19.61%EV +2.09%E +0.439%K +0.555%G +0.012% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 28.70%EV -7.80%E -2.39%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.71%EV -8.93%E -4.94%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.35%EV -1.55%E -0.336%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.94%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-26 21:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.71%EV -8.93%E -4.94%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.35%EV -1.55%E -0.336%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.94%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-26 21:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -1.55%E -0.336%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -8.08%E -2.49%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.77%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -1.55%E -0.336%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-26 21:28 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.06%EV -14.47%E -8.51%K -20.67%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -1.55%E -0.336%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-06-26 21:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.97%EV -5.41%E -2.88%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 4.58I 21.83%NM 20.92%EV -1.97%E -0.431%K -0.551%G +0.000% | 3.41I 29.33%NM 28.10%EV -3.55%E -1.04%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -6.92%E -3.74%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -3.69%E -0.819%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -9.44%E -5.24%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.74%EV -4.76%E -1.07%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.48%EV -6.92%E -3.74%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -5.83%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.30%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.89%EV -8.43%E -4.63%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.05%EV -5.83%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.72%EV -9.44%E -5.24%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -5.83%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-06-26 21:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.84%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -5.83%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.84%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -5.83%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.84%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -5.83%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.84%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -5.83%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.14%EV -6.92%E -3.74%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.32%EV -6.90%E -1.59%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -8.08%E -2.49%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-26 21:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.91%EV -6.92%E -3.74%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.23%EV -6.90%E -1.59%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-26 21:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.91%EV -6.92%E -3.74%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.23%EV -6.90%E -1.59%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-26 21:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.73%EV -6.92%E -3.74%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -7.32%E -1.69%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -3.84%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-26 21:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.64%EV -3.90%E -2.04%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.05%EV -7.97%E -1.85%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.93%EV -7.42%E -4.03%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%EV -7.97%E -1.85%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-06-26 21:39 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.16%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.60%EV -9.04%E -2.13%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -8.08%E -2.49%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -9.44%E -5.24%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -10.11%E -2.41%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-06-26 21:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -10.11%E -2.41%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -9.44%E -5.24%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -10.11%E -2.41%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-06-26 21:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.36%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.51%EV -10.11%E -2.41%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 49.27%EV -12.96%E -7.49%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.29%EV -10.11%E -2.41%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.44%EV -20.81%E -7.43%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 17.3% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.96%EV -9.44%E -5.24%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.93%EV -12.25%E -2.99%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.10%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-06-26 21:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -9.44%E -5.24%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -14.39%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -14.39%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -14.39%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -14.39%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -14.39%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-06-26 21:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.10%EV -2.39%E -1.23%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.62%EV -15.46%E -3.91%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.23%EV -2.90%E -1.50%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -15.46%E -3.91%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-26 21:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.23%EV -2.90%E -1.50%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -15.46%E -3.91%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.23%EV -2.90%E -1.50%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -15.46%E -3.91%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.23%EV -2.90%E -1.50%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -15.46%E -3.91%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.23%EV -2.90%E -1.50%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -15.46%E -3.91%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.23%EV -2.90%E -1.50%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -15.46%E -3.91%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-26 21:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.63%EV -3.90%E -2.04%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -18.67%E -4.91%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.66%EV -5.41%E -2.88%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -19.74%E -5.26%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -10.91%E -3.46%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.79%EV -5.91%E -3.16%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -19.74%E -5.26%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.37%EV -10.91%E -3.46%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.69%EV -6.92%E -3.74%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.85%EV -20.81%E -5.62%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.46%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 47.67%EV -7.42%E -4.03%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.03%EV -21.88%E -5.99%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.30%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-06-26 21:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 47.67%EV -7.42%E -4.03%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.03%EV -21.88%E -5.99%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.30%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 47.81%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 23.97%EV -21.88%E -5.99%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.22%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-06-26 21:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.21% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34% | 0.8% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.21% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34% | 0.8% | 2026-06-26 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.21% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34% | 0.8% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.21% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34% | 0.8% | 2026-06-26 21:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.27% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.65% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.08% | 1.8% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |