L’École des cotesFrançais
Grêmio Novorizontino v Vila Nova
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Grêmio Novorizontino (Local)
Prévision 50.31%1.99cote équitable
EV -2.39%
Avantage -1.23%
Kelly -2.54%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.94
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
47.63%50.33%50.27%53.06%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.701.841.831.9458.82%54.21%54.64%51.55%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Vila Nova (Visiteur)
Prévision 21.40%4.67cote équitable
EV +2.09%
Avantage +0.439%
Kelly +0.555%
Croissance +0.012%
avec la cote maximale 4.77
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
19.61%21.39%21.39%24.03%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.654.194.204.7727.40%23.88%23.81%20.96%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Match nul
Prévision 28.28%3.54cote équitable
EV -3.55%
Avantage -1.04%
Kelly -1.47%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 3.41
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.33%28.28%28.34%30.44%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.803.213.203.4135.71%31.13%31.25%29.33%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Cotes des opérateurs (48 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur ▼ | Match nul | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.69%EV -8.93%E -4.94%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 4.77I 20.96%NM 19.61%EV +2.09%E +0.439%K +0.555%G +0.012% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 28.70%EV -7.80%E -2.39%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.71%EV -8.93%E -4.94%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.35%EV -1.55%E -0.336%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.94%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-26 21:50 |
| BetUS | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.71%EV -8.93%E -4.94%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.35%EV -1.55%E -0.336%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.94%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-26 21:50 |
| SportsBet | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -1.55%E -0.336%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -8.08%E -2.49%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| FanDuel | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.77%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -1.55%E -0.336%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-26 21:28 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.06%EV -14.47%E -8.51%K -20.67%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -1.55%E -0.336%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-06-26 21:39 |
| Pinnacle | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.97%EV -5.41%E -2.88%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 4.58I 21.83%NM 20.92%EV -1.97%E -0.431%K -0.551%G +0.000% | 3.41I 29.33%NM 28.10%EV -3.55%E -1.04%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -6.92%E -3.74%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -3.69%E -0.819%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| Bovada | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -9.44%E -5.24%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.74%EV -4.76%E -1.07%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| Coolbet | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.48%EV -6.92%E -3.74%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -5.83%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.30%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.89%EV -8.43%E -4.63%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.05%EV -5.83%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| Paddy Power | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.72%EV -9.44%E -5.24%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -5.83%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-06-26 21:30 |
| 888sport | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.84%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -5.83%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| William Hill | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.84%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -5.83%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.84%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -5.83%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.84%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -5.83%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.14%EV -6.92%E -3.74%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.32%EV -6.90%E -1.59%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -8.08%E -2.49%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-26 21:40 |
| NordicBet | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.91%EV -6.92%E -3.74%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.23%EV -6.90%E -1.59%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-26 21:40 |
| Betsson | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.91%EV -6.92%E -3.74%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.23%EV -6.90%E -1.59%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-26 21:39 |
| Betway | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.73%EV -6.92%E -3.74%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -7.32%E -1.69%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -3.84%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-26 21:50 |
| DraftKings | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.64%EV -3.90%E -2.04%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.05%EV -7.97%E -1.85%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.93%EV -7.42%E -4.03%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%EV -7.97%E -1.85%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-06-26 21:39 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.16%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.60%EV -9.04%E -2.13%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -8.08%E -2.49%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| theScore Bet | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -9.44%E -5.24%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -10.11%E -2.41%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-06-26 21:40 |
| BetMGM | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -10.11%E -2.41%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| betfred_uk | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -9.44%E -5.24%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -10.11%E -2.41%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-06-26 21:39 |
| PlayUp | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.36%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.51%EV -10.11%E -2.41%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.73I 57.80%NM 49.27%EV -12.96%E -7.49%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.29%EV -10.11%E -2.41%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.44%EV -20.81%E -7.43%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 17.3% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Bet Victor | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.96%EV -9.44%E -5.24%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.93%EV -12.25%E -2.99%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.10%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-06-26 21:39 |
| BoyleSports | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -9.44%E -5.24%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -14.39%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Coral | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -14.39%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -14.39%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -14.39%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Neds | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -14.39%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-06-26 21:30 |
| Unibet | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.10%EV -2.39%E -1.23%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.62%EV -15.46%E -3.91%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.23%EV -2.90%E -1.50%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -15.46%E -3.91%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-26 21:30 |
| Casumo | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.23%EV -2.90%E -1.50%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -15.46%E -3.91%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.23%EV -2.90%E -1.50%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -15.46%E -3.91%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.23%EV -2.90%E -1.50%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -15.46%E -3.91%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| betPARX | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.23%EV -2.90%E -1.50%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -15.46%E -3.91%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.23%EV -2.90%E -1.50%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -15.46%E -3.91%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-26 21:30 |
| BetRivers | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.63%EV -3.90%E -2.04%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -18.67%E -4.91%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Grosvenor | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.66%EV -5.41%E -2.88%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -19.74%E -5.26%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -10.91%E -3.46%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.79%EV -5.91%E -3.16%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -19.74%E -5.26%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.37%EV -10.91%E -3.46%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| TABtouch | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.69%EV -6.92%E -3.74%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.85%EV -20.81%E -5.62%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.46%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.84I 54.35%NM 47.67%EV -7.42%E -4.03%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.03%EV -21.88%E -5.99%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.30%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-06-26 21:30 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.84I 54.35%NM 47.67%EV -7.42%E -4.03%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.03%EV -21.88%E -5.99%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.30%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| LeoVegas | 1.83I 54.64%NM 47.81%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 23.97%EV -21.88%E -5.99%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.22%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-06-26 21:30 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (5)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Match nul | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.21% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34% | 0.8% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.21% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34% | 0.8% | 2026-06-26 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.21% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34% | 0.8% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.21% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34% | 0.8% | 2026-06-26 21:50 |
| Smarkets | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.27% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.65% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.08% | 1.8% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |