La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Grêmio Novorizontino v Vila Nova
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Grêmio Novorizontino (Local)
Predicción 50.31%1.99momio equitativo
EV -2.39%
Ventaja -1.23%
Kelly -2.54%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.94
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.63%50.33%50.27%53.06%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.701.841.831.9458.82%54.21%54.64%51.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Vila Nova (Visitante)
Predicción 21.40%4.67momio equitativo
EV +2.09%
Ventaja +0.439%
Kelly +0.555%
Crecimiento +0.012%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.77
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.61%21.39%21.39%24.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.654.194.204.7727.40%23.88%23.81%20.96%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 28.28%3.54momio equitativo
EV -3.55%
Ventaja -1.04%
Kelly -1.47%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.41
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.33%28.28%28.34%30.44%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.213.203.4135.71%31.13%31.25%29.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.69%EV -8.93%E -4.94%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 4.77I 20.96%NM 19.61%EV +2.09%E +0.439%K +0.555%G +0.012% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 28.70%EV -7.80%E -2.39%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.71%EV -8.93%E -4.94%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.35%EV -1.55%E -0.336%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.94%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-26 21:50 |
| BetUS | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.71%EV -8.93%E -4.94%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.35%EV -1.55%E -0.336%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.94%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-26 21:50 |
| SportsBet | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -1.55%E -0.336%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -8.08%E -2.49%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| FanDuel | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.77%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -1.55%E -0.336%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-26 21:28 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.06%EV -14.47%E -8.51%K -20.67%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -1.55%E -0.336%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-06-26 21:39 |
| Pinnacle | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.97%EV -5.41%E -2.88%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 4.58I 21.83%NM 20.92%EV -1.97%E -0.431%K -0.551%G +0.000% | 3.41I 29.33%NM 28.10%EV -3.55%E -1.04%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -6.92%E -3.74%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -3.69%E -0.819%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| Bovada | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -9.44%E -5.24%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.74%EV -4.76%E -1.07%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| Coolbet | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.48%EV -6.92%E -3.74%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -5.83%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.30%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.89%EV -8.43%E -4.63%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.05%EV -5.83%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| Paddy Power | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.72%EV -9.44%E -5.24%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -5.83%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-06-26 21:30 |
| 888sport | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.84%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -5.83%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| William Hill | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.84%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -5.83%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.84%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -5.83%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.84%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -5.83%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.14%EV -6.92%E -3.74%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.32%EV -6.90%E -1.59%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -8.08%E -2.49%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-26 21:40 |
| NordicBet | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.91%EV -6.92%E -3.74%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.23%EV -6.90%E -1.59%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-26 21:40 |
| Betsson | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.91%EV -6.92%E -3.74%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.23%EV -6.90%E -1.59%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-26 21:39 |
| Betway | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.73%EV -6.92%E -3.74%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -7.32%E -1.69%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -3.84%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-26 21:50 |
| DraftKings | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.64%EV -3.90%E -2.04%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.05%EV -7.97%E -1.85%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.93%EV -7.42%E -4.03%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%EV -7.97%E -1.85%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-06-26 21:39 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.16%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.60%EV -9.04%E -2.13%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -8.08%E -2.49%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| theScore Bet | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -9.44%E -5.24%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -10.11%E -2.41%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-06-26 21:40 |
| BetMGM | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -10.11%E -2.41%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| betfred_uk | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -9.44%E -5.24%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -10.11%E -2.41%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-06-26 21:39 |
| PlayUp | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.36%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.51%EV -10.11%E -2.41%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.73I 57.80%NM 49.27%EV -12.96%E -7.49%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.29%EV -10.11%E -2.41%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.44%EV -20.81%E -7.43%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 17.3% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Bet Victor | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.96%EV -9.44%E -5.24%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.93%EV -12.25%E -2.99%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.10%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-06-26 21:39 |
| BoyleSports | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -9.44%E -5.24%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -14.39%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Coral | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -14.39%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -14.39%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -14.39%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Neds | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -14.39%E -3.60%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-06-26 21:30 |
| Unibet | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.10%EV -2.39%E -1.23%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.62%EV -15.46%E -3.91%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.23%EV -2.90%E -1.50%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -15.46%E -3.91%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-26 21:30 |
| Casumo | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.23%EV -2.90%E -1.50%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -15.46%E -3.91%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.23%EV -2.90%E -1.50%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -15.46%E -3.91%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.23%EV -2.90%E -1.50%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -15.46%E -3.91%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| betPARX | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.23%EV -2.90%E -1.50%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -15.46%E -3.91%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.23%EV -2.90%E -1.50%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -15.46%E -3.91%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-26 21:30 |
| BetRivers | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.63%EV -3.90%E -2.04%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -18.67%E -4.91%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Grosvenor | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.66%EV -5.41%E -2.88%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -19.74%E -5.26%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -10.91%E -3.46%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.79%EV -5.91%E -3.16%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -19.74%E -5.26%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.37%EV -10.91%E -3.46%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| TABtouch | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.69%EV -6.92%E -3.74%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.85%EV -20.81%E -5.62%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.46%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.84I 54.35%NM 47.67%EV -7.42%E -4.03%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.03%EV -21.88%E -5.99%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.30%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-06-26 21:30 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.84I 54.35%NM 47.67%EV -7.42%E -4.03%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.03%EV -21.88%E -5.99%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.30%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-06-26 21:29 |
| LeoVegas | 1.83I 54.64%NM 47.81%EV -7.93%E -4.33%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 23.97%EV -21.88%E -5.99%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.22%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-06-26 21:30 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.21% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34% | 0.8% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.21% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34% | 0.8% | 2026-06-26 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.21% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34% | 0.8% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.21% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34% | 0.8% | 2026-06-26 21:50 |
| Smarkets | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.27% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.65% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.08% | 1.8% | 2026-06-26 21:49 |